dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nam blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 lolHuh? I said yesterday this was as far as I was willing to drive.http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=42.45&textField2=-73.25#.VoCqKMtOnqA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For fun (and a product of boredom), here's my first call. Your map doesn't make sense because the higher amounts ride the spine of the ORH hills, but in this case they are more on a nw-se axis because of the retreating high to the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think the euro had a good handle on this one, Some were questioning it holding back the energy in the SW, And then the rest of the models started to slow down as well ejecting the ULL out of the south EURO did eject to quickly..it originally had no snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm not overly impressed to say it'll be a wall type of SWFE. These warm layers aloft might result in some isolated screwages. What falls as snow will be heavy. Fact, not debatable. Snow growth is another matter, but it isn't very important with the 1-2"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I was talking snow growth wise specifically Pretty irrelevant. Were you driving on 12/13/07?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Totally disappointing for a SW Flow event...these usually rip here in NE PA but this one they're only forecasting an inch then sleet. Only in Winter 15-16 can you slam a 1004mb low into a 1042mb high over Caribou and have the low come out on top. What shocks me is how fast the cold looks to retreat. You think -20C 850s are coming in, then bam, changeover. You set yourself up for disappointment hallucinating a snow threat for NYC into existence. SWFE do NOT snow in NYC with a +AO, +NAO and raging el nino. Examples in previous seasons in which they did are irrelevant. I laid out why this would happen when NYC weenies were going nuts a few days ago in another forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z GFS looks like the euro now. Cut down on QPF too. 'Bout time it got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Of course it's harder to accumulate when the ground is warm, at least in light snow and flurries. Simple thermodynamics. I think y'all are ovethinking it. Sent from my HTC One Which this is NOT You are under thinking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You set yourself up for disappointment hallucinating a snow threat for NYC into existence. SWFE do NOT snow in NYC with a +AO, +NAO and raging el nino. Examples in previous seasons in which they did are irrelevant. I laid out why this would happen when NYC weenies were going nuts a few days ago in another forum. They do when the wave is weak, this one is way too deep of a low but it is odd how the mid levels are so insanely warm in this event for sure its uncharacteristically bad for a SWFE, even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 00Z bumped up QPF again. Seems like a better front end on this run. That's the key. We need one of these well formed front end band of heavier precip, not some ragged banded stuff that doesn't get its act together until offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 They do when the wave is weak, this one is way too deep of a low but it is odd how the mid levels are so insanely warm in this event for sure its uncharacteristically bad for a SWFE, even in NYC. Nothing is odd about it. The MA pike is a pretty common transition zone for these. Many of us cited exactly how this would evolve when some models, including the EURO, were printing out a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nothing is odd about it. The MA pike is a pretty common transition zone for these. Usually though NYC sees snow in these, even if it's just 1-2 inches it's fairly unusual for them to start as sleet or rain if a high is positioned to the north like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Gfs looks better on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Usually though NYC sees snow in these, even if it's just 1-2 inches it's fairly unusual for them to start as sleet or rain if a high is positioned to the north like this Extraordinarily subjective. Remember, the cold in the mid levels is pedestrian to begin with and it abating as the high slides east because there is no block (NAO) to impeded it. Unwise to generalize. How did NYC do in Dec 2007 and 2008 with a positive NAO??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 00z GFS is a bit less aggressive with getting the warmth aloft into southern NH. 3-6" call stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Extraordinarily subjective. Remember, the cold in the mid levels is pedestrian to begin with and it abating as the high slides east because there is no block (NAO) to impeded it. Unwise to generalize. How did NYC do in Dec 2007 and 2008 with a positive NAO??? I know we saw similar events to this like 1/11/91 and 12/14/03 and got pounded on the front end. The angle approach of those events may have been more from the SSW vs SW or WSW which sometimes is a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Guess what the skin temp is on the first frosty night in September.It's more than skin....heat from a few feet down transfers to the top. At least BOX most think so Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I know we saw similar events to this like 1/11/91 and 12/14/03 and got pounded on the front end And my area has seen a HECS in April and a MECS in May. What is your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 And my area has seen a HECS in April and a MECS in May. What is your point? why you being snotty? All he is saying is that sometimes not all SWFEs are snowless in NYC , 3-5-15 being the most recent example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm very satisfied. Nice little snow to get off of the snide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Gfs kind of validates my call I think on quick look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 why you being snotty? All he is saying is that sometimes not all SWFEs are snowless in NYC , 3-5-15 being the most recent example Yes, but isn't the objective to determine which will and will not??? Not all closed H5 lows evolve into HECS, but we try to determine which will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nothing is "snotty" unless it gets personal....no one here has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 sticking with 3-5" enjoy all, someone will have to open up the obs thread tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Good call, Raul. Concur.....should be fun, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You set yourself up for disappointment hallucinating a snow threat for NYC into existence. SWFE do NOT snow in NYC with a +AO, +NAO and raging el nino. Examples in previous seasons in which they did are irrelevant. I laid out why this would happen when NYC weenies were going nuts a few days ago in another forum. I'm in extreme NE PA at 1600' near the NY State border, more like the Catskills than Poconos. This area has a very cold and snowy climo with 70-75" average snowfall. We usually get a solid 4-8" from most SWFEs up here. We have not had any snowfall this season...it will be nice to get an inch or two but won't make up the deficit.It is odd, Ray, how warm the mid-levels are. We all knew it was going to be a weird storm and milder due to El Nino so please stop pretending you are enlightening us. I am not one of those NYC weenies who thought Brooklyn was getting 8" out of this so don't put me in this class. Just sucks we finally get a cold 1040mb+ high with -30C 850s to our north, and the storm still ends up being a torch. Having 570dm heights over us and the storm so far west killed us. These are much better when they track through Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Got my first Winter Weather Advisory. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm in extreme NE PA at 1600' near the NY State border, more like the Catskills than Poconos. This area has a very cold and snowy climo with 70-75" average snowfall. We usually get a solid 4-8" from most SWFEs up here. We have not had any snowfall this season...it will be nice to get an inch or two but won't make up the deficit. It is odd, Ray, how warm the mid-levels are. We all knew it was going to be a weird storm and milder due to El Nino so please stop pretending you are enlightening us. I am not one of those NYC weenies who thought Brooklyn was getting 8" out of this so don't put me in this class. Just sucks we finally get a cold 1040mb+ high with -30C 850s to our north, and the storm still ends up being a torch. Having 570dm heights over us and the storm so far west killed us. These are much better when they track through Ohio... You are right that the mid levels were not that cold to start....true. But that should have been a flag to begin with....JMO. Remember, elevation has zero to do with mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Has NYC even had a frost yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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