ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Considering a week ago it looked like we were getting a torch, it's not a bad thing for a nuisance event to dust off the old winter wx skills. Sure maybe it won't be a WSW in spots, but we take for now. We were excited when it showed up as getting our first measurable before a flip...still think it could easily end up >4" though...look how shallow that warm layer is for several hours. That's gonna be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 With the euro more or less steady with those numbers I feel confident. I notice the tongue doesn't get to mby until after 12z so it should be a decent snow thump....how long determines results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Totally disappointing for a SW Flow event...these usually rip here in NE PA but this one they're only forecasting an inch then sleet. Only in Winter 15-16 can you slam a 1004mb low into a 1042mb high over Caribou and have the low come out on top. What shocks me is how fast the cold looks to retreat. You think -20C 850s are coming in, then bam, changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We were excited when it showed up as getting our first measurable before a flip...still think it could easily end up >4" though...look how shallow that warm layer is for several hours. That's gonna be a close call. Yeah we'll have to monitor models. Could very well be a good event north of pike into Boston. My comment was for those that were whiny. It's a lot better than we had a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Totally disappointing for a SW Flow event...these usually rip here in NE PA but this one they're only forecasting an inch then sleet. Only in Winter 15-16 can you slam a 1004mb low into a 1042mb high over Caribou and have the low come out on top. What shocks me is how fast the cold looks to retreat. You think -20C 850s are coming in, then bam, changeover. PA sucks in those, and what do you expect with the mid level low so far west. I don't care what winter it is, that's gonna happen no matter what. High pressure won't stop a 8,000ft warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 PA sucks in those, and what do you expect with the mid level low so far west. I don't care what winter it is, that's gonna happen no matter what. High pressure won't stop a 8,000ft warm layer. lol, True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Haven't seen anyone whining except maybe Socks last post. Most people understand what this event is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yea, it was at least better having to track something even if I'm still shutout. Guidance had a pretty good handle on this thing from the get go albeit with some fluctuations but that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yea, it was at least better having to track something even if I'm still shutout. Guidance had a pretty good handle on this thing from the get go albeit with some fluctuations but that's to be expected. I think the euro had a good handle on this one, Some were questioning it holding back the energy in the SW, And then the rest of the models started to slow down as well ejecting the ULL out of the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think the euro had a good handle on this one, Some were questioning it holding back the energy in the SW, And then the rest of the models started to slow down as well ejecting the ULL out of the south Yea. I mean, it's not like we had wild swings from run to run. Gfs had like two or three runs in a row where it went really cold but then it backed off. Euro was pretty good though.let's hope it performs as well should we face a good sized coastal cuz tbh, it's performance for my hood in Juno left sour taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Considering a week ago it looked like we were getting a torch, it's not a bad thing for a nuisance event to dust off the old winter wx skills. Sure maybe it won't be a WSW in spots, but we take for now. Yup. Something to track. I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Totally disappointing for a SW Flow event...these usually rip here in NE PA but this one they're only forecasting an inch then sleet. Only in Winter 15-16 can you slam a 1004mb low into a 1042mb high over Caribou and have the low come out on top. What shocks me is how fast the cold looks to retreat. You think -20C 850s are coming in, then bam, changeover. The problem is the pattern overall is quite mild. 500mb heights at 570dm isn't exactly the best setup for snow. Well timed confluence gives us a nice cold/dry high to the north but we're starting off with a pretty marginal airmass in mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For fun (and a product of boredom), here's my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's a totally appropriate first storm of the season and that is how it will behave. Just pretend it is early December and we'll all be happier. A big step in the step down and by Jan 15 we will all be happy. Going for 5.5 inches here in Dendriteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The problem is the pattern overall is quite mild. 500mb heights at 570dm isn't exactly the best setup for snow. Well timed confluence gives us a nice cold/dry high to the north but we're starting off with a pretty marginal airmass in mid levels. Yeah I actually feel like we got quite lucky with this one. This just as easily could've been another torch cutter if it wasn't for well timed high pressure and good cold delivery prior to the event. Just getting something wintery out of this is a huge win. If that high isn't there then we are making another run at record high temps given how deep the trough is out west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's a totally appropriate first storm of the season and that is how it will behave. Just pretend it is early December and we'll all be happier. A big step in the step down and by Jan 15 we will all be happy. Going for 5.5 inches here in Dendriteville.had the month behind feeling since September. We may be on the verge of another special winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I actually feel like we got quite lucky with this one. This just as easily could've been another torch cutter if it wasn't for well timed high pressure and good cold delivery prior to the event. Just getting something wintery out of this is a huge win. If that high isn't there then we are making another run at record high temps given how deep the trough is out west right now.exactly why we applauded Eastern Canada snow in Nov and Dec. Reason NE Maine has been getting snowstorms, time to shift that south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 How familiar is this for NNE when a Christmas week snow last year saved ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 exactly why we applauded Eastern Canada snow in Nov and Dec. Reason NE Maine has been getting snowstorms, time to shift that south. It seems every time you look at the models and snow maps over the past couple weeks there's another big stripe of snow going across southern/central Quebec through northern Maine and into the Maritimes. We just need to get that whole zone south. If it was like 100 miles south this month would've been serviceable here even with warm departures. Just how it breaks sometime. The times are changing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 How familiar is this for NNE when a Christmas week snow last year saved ski areas. Did we get snow last year during Xmas? I know there was a nasty Grinch storm. The best Christmas holiday week was definitely in 2012...two different big synoptic events. I think Sugarbush reported 100" of snow that December even while punting the first 10 days. Other than that, all I remember are Grinches, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It seems every time you look at the models and snow maps over the past couple weeks there's another big stripe of snow going across southern/central Quebec through northern Maine and into the Maritimes. We just need to get that whole zone south. If it was like 100 miles south this month would've been serviceable here even with warm departures. Just how it breaks sometime. The times are changing though. yea it's been crazy down there...NS and NB ftw. I've been too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 All I can remember is that nasty grinch storm xmas eve last year with 65 degrees 2 miles to my SE and stuck in the low 50s here until overnight (Enough to melt the 7 coatings I'd accrued over the last 30 days). At least this year it was deck weather and was pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I actually feel like we got quite lucky with this one. This just as easily could've been another torch cutter if it wasn't for well timed high pressure and good cold delivery prior to the event. Just getting something wintery out of this is a huge win. If that high isn't there then we are making another run at record high temps given how deep the trough is out west right now. Yup absolutely. The pattern is quite mild but some well timed confluence to the north is bringing in a nice surge of low level cold. Up in mid levels it's quite torchy. Let's enjoy it... We got lucky with this one and it's a break from the monotony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Wishful thinking would be 3-5" at Logan But realistically speaking probably will end up around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think I'm skunked on the coast here, probably marginally 1-2. Wouldn't be surprised if MQE pulls a 3 or 4. I hate that strong easterly flow at only 115 ASL with such a warm ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It seems every time you look at the models and snow maps over the past couple weeks there's another big stripe of snow going across southern/central Quebec through northern Maine and into the Maritimes. We just need to get that whole zone south. If it was like 100 miles south this month would've been serviceable here even with warm departures. Just how it breaks sometime. The times are changing though. Step down process, Been about 100 miles to far south otherwise we would have had a decent Dec in this crappy pattern here, It was just a matter of shifting that boundary south, It will continue and the rest of the region will cash going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 NAM is a scalpfest...it's definitely been on the warmer side of guidance. It also doesn't have an impressive WCB thump at all in SNE..mostly light precip until later on. That's one of the bigger differences between it and the GFS...Euro is kind of in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I apologize to everyone in the forum because it's apparent that once I considered chasing, everything started going the wrong way for you. Needless to say, I ain't gonna come for a couple inches. Good luck nonetheless. Maybe your luck will change now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I apologize to everyone in the forum because it's apparent that once I considered chasing, everything started going the wrong way for you. Needless to say, I ain't gonna come for a couple inches. Good luck nonetheless. Maybe your luck will change now. Lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nam warms the lower levels before that warm tongue even makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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