Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tuesday I anticipate many posts marveling at how fast the sleet line is advancing. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Take the low end of that. Just not feeling this one at all for anything worthwhile. Yea, tough to see more than a quick inch down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tues AM commute will be horrid from Boston north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yea, tough to see more than a quick inch down there. SSTs are much warmer than we've see so while the cold high to the north may be pretty strong, there is just nothing to stop that warmth from flooding the MLs and changing and snow quickly over to a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You honestly think NE CT gets accumulating snow with that warm tongue already on top of me when precip starts? I just don't see where these 1-4 inch forecasts are are seeing it Even if the mid-level warmth is on top of you, it's marginal to start and wet-bulb processes mixed with brief heavy rates should have you accumulate some snow to start. I could see a situation where it may even start as IP for a little and then as heavy precip moves in you go to SN for a time before flipping to IP for good. I think you'll see 1-3" of dense white material. Even without snow, you may get a half inch QPF as sleet, which would be good enough for 1-2" IP accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tues AM commute will be horrid from Boston north. Agree... can't believe that some of the TV mets this morning were touting the "warm ground" and not focusing on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think advisories will do it along and north of pike with warnings really only north of the border and a few 6" spots potentially at a place like Rt 2 and Northern Essex/Middlesex counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This one is a lot warmer than the traditional SWFE. There have been plenty of SWFEs where the NYC suburbs got 5-6" with more further north...storms like 1/28/09, 3/19/13 etc. This one looks a good deal warmer. I'm actually surprised on the warmth of this one given the 1040mb high to the north. But the lack of snow cover and exceptional warmth in the source regions is probably making that difference. You would think NYC would start in the mid 20s and interior New England in the mid teens, but not this time, unfortunately. There's plenty of them that give NYC nothing. That high is actually pretty impressive and that's decent low level cold amidst a sea of warmth on this side of the continent. The warmth is aloft...what does a lack of snow cover have to do with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 4-5" is my call for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think advisories will do it along and north of pike with warnings really only north of the border and a few 6" spots potentially at a place like Rt 2 and Northern Essex/Middlesex counties. Agree. Its the timing of it combined with the fact it is the first bonafide event in nearly a year that is bad....otherwise its NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's essentially what a SWFE is. Mulling over a low-end winter storm watch for portions of NH. 50/50 shot that you get 6" or no? Kind of borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agree. Its the timing of it combined with the fact it is the first bonafide event in nearly a year that is bad....otherwise its NBD. Anything that comes at commute time at any time in winter has high impact. An inch or 2 can mess up the commute big time if it's falling which it will be in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Mulling over a low-end winter storm watch for portions of NH. 50/50 shot that you get 6" or no? Kind of borderline. I criteria 6" there or 7"? I could see that actually making a difference in this situation. I'd just fly with a high end Advisory event of 4-7". Although a watch will get the word out more, even if you think in the end it just gets converted to a high end advisory. I was sort of thinking we'd see BTV/GYX/BOX do something like that, issue a watch even if they think in the end it'll be an advisory. Just to get awareness on the first real widespread plowable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agree... can't believe that some of the TV mets this morning were touting the "warm ground" and not focusing on this. I think there is some merit to what BOX is talking about with ground temps....when was the last time sne was below frz? It's not like there has been weeks of below frz weather leading up to this storm....with the light commute Tuesday morning and warm pavement temps I bet the commute is not that bad around the Boston area... Still a nice 3-6 inch snowfall is something I would love to have down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Most people are off this week, so commute shouldn't be much of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Anything that comes at commute time at any time in winter has high impact. An inch or 2 can mess up the commute big time if it's falling which it will be in some form. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Mulling over a low-end winter storm watch for portions of NH. 50/50 shot that you get 6" or no? Kind of borderline.congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think there is some merit to what BOX is talking about with ground temps....when was the last time sne was below frz? It's not like there has been weeks of below frz weather leading up to this storm....with the light commute Tuesday morning and warm pavement temps I bet the commute is not that bad around the Boston area... Still a nice 3-6 inch snowfall is something I would love to have down here Its BS with heavy fall rates and meek solar radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 We have seen a large event in May, what does that tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Most people are off this week, so commute shouldn't be much of an issue For those that are it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think there is some merit to what BOX is talking about with ground temps....when was the last time sne was below frz? It's not like there has been weeks of below frz weather leading up to this storm....with the light commute Tuesday morning and warm pavement temps I bet the commute is not that bad around the Boston area... Still a nice 3-6 inch snowfall is something I would love to have down here Definitely disagree... burst of snow will probably be heaviest during the commute. Certainly won't find me driving on 93 or 128 then. I think the "warm ground" argument probably holds more weight when you're dealing with rain changing to snow, not when temps are in the 20s as the snow starts falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 For those that are it will be. Well for anyone driving any snow anytime is an issue. But the vast majority of folks are off this week..so there won't be too much traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1-3 here. Wondering if I should tell my wife not to cancel our planned trip to PWM Monday and Tuesday. Will that part of coastal Maine catch much, or, will it go over to rain fairly quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It's total bs. In December 2001 we had a rain to snow that dropped 5 inches after a week of 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think there is some merit to what BOX is talking about with ground temps....when was the last time sne was below frz? It's not like there has been weeks of below frz weather leading up to this storm....with the light commute Tuesday morning and warm pavement temps I bet the commute is not that bad around the Boston area... Still a nice 3-6 inch snowfall is something I would love to have down here Unfortunately you are wrong with respect to ground temps...that is BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well for anyone driving any snow anytime is an issue. But the vast majority of folks are off this week..so there won't be too much traffic If people do not give themselves extra time, it will be...hence the caution. It doesn't take many accidents to grind things to a halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If people do not give themselves extra time, it will be...hence the caution. It doesn't take many accidents to grind things to a halt. All true..but I think traffic hype can be dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Unfortunately you are wrong with respect to ground temps...that is BS. A well traveled highway with warm ground temps and pre treated with chemicals before a advisory event is not going to be a big issue....especially for Mass DOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It seems like a cop- out. Trying to find reasons for why a forecast won't verify. If you are talking about sun angle issues and time of day combined with poor lift/snow growth etc., than the warmer ground can be a factor, but with the time of day and year of this event ,and the temperatures projected prior to and during precip arrival,along with the rather intense lift/ quick burst of precip,it seems like a weak sauce excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A well traveled highway with warm ground temps and pre treated with chemicals before a advisory event is not going to be a big issue....especially for Mass DOT... But the problem is it will have been well below freezing for 12 hours prior to the event and nothing is well traveled at 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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