ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You also have to factor In that a few hours of heavy sleet will accumulate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO a bit better in NNE, looks like here to Dryslot increased a couple inches from 00z, but it's mostly noise. Looks very little change in SNE. The H7 warm punch seemed to halt around BTV-CON and then rotates southeast. Looks like the mix would be close in NNE but may get deflected east before getting too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 He's being a typical weenie obsessing over the top end of the range while 48 hours out. If it trends a little warmer then 5-6" won't happen but if it trends slightly colder then it will. I'd probably lean more 3-4 at the moment after seeing the euro hold steady. But an extra 90 minutes of heavy snow can make a huge difference in these setups. (See 12/16/07) Yep. We'll see how the next 24 hrs go. I mean it could easily pull one of those 12/16/07 where the sleet is flying NE and then washes out near Attleboro or a place like that, if lift is intense. There are signs the lift is going to be good after 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You also have to factor In that a few hours of heavy sleet will accumulate too. Yeah could get 3-4" at 0.35" QPF and then rattle off another 1-2" of sleet out of 0.4-0.5" QPF or something. 4-6" of white material on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You also have to factor In that a few hours of heavy sleet will accumulate too. Someone should really get a decent scalping. Might even be near Boston too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You also have to factor In that a few hours of heavy sleet will accumulate too. It will also compress whatever snow precedes it. Careful measurements needed. I'm hoping I can hit 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO a bit better in NNE, looks like here to Dryslot increased a couple inches from 00z, but it's mostly noise. Looks very little change in SNE. The H7 warm punch seemed to halt around BTV-CON and then rotates southeast. Looks like the mix would be close in NNE but may get deflected east before getting too far north. Yeah better run you dendrite thru here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It will also compress whatever snow precedes it. Careful measurements needed. I'm hoping I can hit 4". 6hrs of snow...measure, clear...then pile up the IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I expect this the one time where Kevin under-reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah better run you dendrite thru here Got a little worried last eve this morn but it seems like a 4-6 low end 8-10 if we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Thinking 2 or 3 then sleet should do it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well he will almost certainly lose his bet with you. And he is calling for no snow in CT, so you may have a good point there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Got a little worried last eve this morn but it seems like a 4-6 low end 8-10 if we get luckyI like 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 6hrs of snow...measure, clear...then pile up the IP For those lucky few who have 6 hours of snow...... I expect this the one time where Kevin under-reports. LOL 40.6 .38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Discounting the GFS which gives you at least 8"? GFS 8", euro 4.5" 3-6" should do it. GFS is a bit too generous across sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I expect this the one time where Kevin under-reports.You honestly think NE CT gets accumulating snow with that warm tongue already on top of me when precip starts? I just don't see where these 1-4 inch forecasts are are seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 He's being a typical weenie obsessing over the top end of the range while 48 hours out. If it trends a little warmer then 5-6" won't happen but if it trends slightly colder then it will. I'd probably lean more 3-4 at the moment after seeing the euro hold steady. But an extra 90 minutes of heavy snow can make a huge difference in these setups. (See 12/16/07) BINGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You honestly think NE CT gets accumulating snow with that warm tongue already on top of me when precip starts? I just don't see where these 1-4 inch forecasts are are seeing it Yes. 1" easily of SN/IP combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 My grass looks great down here ,wish it would get covered up . Unfortunate looks like a sleet event to rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This seems like one of those mid Atlantic deals where it snows and by the next afternoon it's completely gone , with maybe a few piles scattered around. Actually i recall that happening often growing up in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS 8", euro 4.5" 3-6" should do it. GFS is a bit too generous across sne. Sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This seems like one of those mid Atlantic deals where it snows and by the next afternoon it's completely gone , with maybe a few piles scattered around. Actually i recall that happening often growing up in the 80's.You're right on that score. You guys are calling it a swfe, but it looks like a warm front to me with a thump on the front end. We don't do well with those down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You're right on that score. You guys are calling it a swfe, but it looks like a warm front to me with a thump on the front end. We don't do well with those down hereThat's essentially what a SWFE is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This seems like one of those mid Atlantic deals where it snows and by the next afternoon it's completely gone , with maybe a few piles scattered around. Actually i recall that happening often growing up in the 80's. Enjoy it--the melting will help alleviate you're drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You're right on that score. You guys are calling it a swfe, but it looks like a warm front to me with a thump on the front end. We don't do well with those down hereUsuslly we can retain some OTG, with cold behind it, but with that screaming cutter on its heels Wed nite/ Thurs this is in and out. But at least for the folks north of 1-90 it'll get them off the snide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's essentially what a SWFE is.Sadly, down here there's usually more "warm front" than "event" with those things sooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's essentially what a SWFE is.This one is a lot warmer than the traditional SWFE. There have been plenty of SWFEs where the NYC suburbs got 5-6" with more further north...storms like 1/28/09, 3/19/13 etc. This one looks a good deal warmer.I'm actually surprised on the warmth of this one given the 1040mb high to the north. But the lack of snow cover and exceptional warmth in the source regions is probably making that difference. You would think NYC would start in the mid 20s and interior New England in the mid teens, but not this time, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Thinking 2 or 3 then sleet should do it here Take the low end of that. Just not feeling this one at all for anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Take the low end of that. Just not feeling this one at all for anything worthwhile. Tuesday I anticipate many posts marveling at how fast the sleet line is advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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