SR Airglow Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam looks pretty solid for the pike region for high end advisory to low end warning. Caveats still as 48-54 is still not very trustworthy on that model. I'm seeing a big warm layer around 750mb over almost all of SNE by hour 48 -- didn't look like anywhere near that much QPF by then but it could be a shallow layer that good rates can overcome. Haven't had a chance to look at soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam looks pretty solid for the pike region for high end advisory to low end warning. Caveats still as 48-54 is still not very trustworthy on that model. It's definitely getting a good burst in from 9z-15z. Classic tilt in the isotherms aloft to a NW-SE axis. Colder NE, warmer SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The NAM has a hell of a torch aloft at 750. It may be a bit overdone, but the 750-800 layer is the one progged to warm by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam gives only an inch all the way to C NH. Safe to say we toss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Its a blow torch in the mid levels at H7, +3c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow NAM is a torch to the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam looks pretty solid for the pike region for high end advisory to low end warning. Caveats still as 48-54 is still not very trustworthy on that model.Not in snow do you mean sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 NAM is a ton of sleet. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z RGEM just getting into range, This is at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ryan's station(issued by a non met who does weekend mornings) I thought you said no one in CT sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Who would have thought you'd be talking about a winter event with this lol. Goes to show you how shallow cold air means more than you think this time of year. Also shows you why H7 has such a torch tongue aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam looks pretty solid for the pike region for high end advisory to low end warning. Caveats still as 48-54 is still not very trustworthy on that model. Is warning 6" or 7" that area of Mass? I'd assume the NWS offices might go warning just as first plowable event for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z RGEM just getting into range, This is at hr 48 Scalping after a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Scalping after a period of snow. Pretty much yes except for most of CT, This is hr 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I thought you said no one in CT sees snow. That's why I said non met. He's likely off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z RGEM just getting into range, This is at hr 48 Pinga's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like I changeover to pingers around 51hr after about 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's why I said non met. He's likely off Ok. I still say you Enjoy your 1-2" snow then sleet/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's still in clown range for the RGEM. With that said, it's a few hours of good snows, before my head is pelted in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still think the lower end of snow amounts is the way to go. There is so much warming aloft.If you're expecting 3-6 then 2-4 more likely.. 2-4 then 1-2 more likely etc.. Warmth aloft always comes in faster than models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still think the lower end of snow amounts is the way to go. There is so much warming aloft.If you're expecting 3-6 then 2-4 more likely.. 2-4 then 1-2 more likely etc.. Warmth aloft always comes in faster than models Depends. If it's a marginal layer and you have intense lift, it can get washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Any net gain is appreciated.. I'll take any frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like GFS may be a tad warmer. Not a huge change from 6z really. Getting close to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Depends. If it's a marginal layer and you have intense lift, it can get washed out. That's why I'm getting little to none and why I think south of ORH to Ct border only gets an inch or so. No matter what happens at least a little winter is finally happening..but you just get the feeling on this one those expecting big thumps near pike and higher amounts might be left a bit disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z GFS is a tic warmer the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Actually the soundings at Boston warmer by a good amount at 750-800 by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Iceberg are you melting? Dryslot just reporting the model data. This will edge back and forth I'd bet, and of course you are in a more vulnerable spot, though I don't expect all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS is caving . You wonder if GGEM was right the whole time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/images/aly/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png ALY new winter potential maps, I like what they've done in the last couple years with their forecast maps and illustrations... Bottom line, potential for 5-6 max, or 2-3 min w/ .1-.25" of ice...I'll stick with my initial 3-6 then glaze for my area, then rain and warmth.. Looks like my birthday storm has lost luster for next week though What do think about New Hartford / Torrington / Harwinton CT. Most of my plowing accounts are in this area and most of them i go out on 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The king has been steadfast for several runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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