Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS looks to keep Ray + I snowing a little longer. Looks like at least 2 frames of heavy cement that I'm hoping will hang around a little while longer afterwards. It would suck to melt it all in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS looks to keep Ray + I snowing a little longer. Looks like at least 2 frames of heavy cement that I'm hoping will hang around a little while longer afterwards. It would suck to melt it all in a day. yeah, looks good for maybe 6-7" north of 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 yeah, looks good for maybe 6-7" north of 128Yep you included. Should see at least a couple hours of 2"/hr rates with all of that moisture per GFS at least. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I still think this could easily trend colder. When's the last time we saw a 1004mb low slam into a 1044mb high? I definitely expect a lot of CAD at surface and quite possibly colder 850s ahead of the storm...that high has -30C @850mb in Labrador, -20C in Maine...we should be a bit colder than the -1/-2 that's been depicted. 0z GFS also looked a bit colder and further south. Confluence tries to force a redeveloper, and 100 miles south in that confluence could turn this into a NYC (or DXR) north storm rather than BOS north as currently modeled... The issue is how far west the parent low and associated mid levels lows are, That's about 90% of the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like Canadian cooled a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The issue is how far west the parent low and associated mid levels lows are, That's about 90% of the issue.think it was Jan 11 we had a low go to Minn that gave us a potent swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like Canadian cooled a bit too. Yeah slightly. Still obscenely warm tho with that H7-H75 warm punch compared to other guidance even though 850 is frigid. I am not buying that though. I could buy 700 being warm if 850 wasn't so cold but otherwise we aren't see that big of an inversion that high up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah slightly. Still obscenely warm tho with that H7-H75 warm punch compared to other guidance even though 850 is frigid. I am not buying that though. I could buy 700 being warm if 850 wasn't so cold but otherwise we aren't see that big of an inversion that high up Yeah I've seen it go craZy with mid level warmth. The fact it correctly slightly sort of tells me that it may be a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I still think this could easily trend colder. When's the last time we saw a 1004mb low slam into a 1044mb high? I definitely expect a lot of CAD at surface and quite possibly colder 850s ahead of the storm...that high has -30C @850mb in Labrador, -20C in Maine...we should be a bit colder than the -1/-2 that's been depicted. 0z GFS also looked a bit colder and further south. Confluence tries to force a redeveloper, and 100 miles south in that confluence could turn this into a NYC (or DXR) north storm rather than BOS north as currently modeled... Not happening Socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I still think this could easily trend colder. When's the last time we saw a 1004mb low slam into a 1044mb high? I definitely expect a lot of CAD at surface and quite possibly colder 850s ahead of the storm...that high has -30C @850mb in Labrador, -20C in Maine...we should be a bit colder than the -1/-2 that's been depicted. 0z GFS also looked a bit colder and further south. Confluence tries to force a redeveloper, and 100 miles south in that confluence could turn this into a NYC (or DXR) north storm rather than BOS north as currently modeled... This never was ever a NYC snow threat, some wishcasted it into one but it never was, is, or will be. This was a New England threat right off the bat. No blocking at all anywhere and a low going up into the Midwest does not equal snow in NYC, never has, never will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This never was ever a NYC snow threat, some wishcasted it into one but it never was, is, or will be. This was a New England threat right off the bat. No blocking at all anywhere and a low going up into the Midwest does not equal snow in NYC, never has, never will Complete agreement. He needs to stop hallucinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO trimmed back on the s edge, but otherwise exactly the same. 4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This to me has an inch or less bdl to cef then ip then maybe a light glaze and some cold rain, northampton to greenfield a few to perhaps four or five inches...up to low end warning farther north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 MEX snow numbers were an eye opener for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 MEX: BOS 6 Taunton 6 EWB 2 PYM 2 MVY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 MEX: BOS 6 Taunton 6 EWB 2 PYM 2 MVY 1 And BED/LWM/ORH 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 And BED/LWM/ORH 8. 8-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO trimmed back on the s edge, but otherwise exactly the same. 4" here. Yeah, a little warmer at 700 mb it looks like. Would bring mixing issues well into our forecast area again. But not before a nice front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah, a little warmer at 700 mb it looks like. Would bring mixing issues well into our forecast area again. But not before a nice front end. Ok, didn't notice. It's 4", as opposed to 4.5" for me last run....but that is noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ok, didn't notice. It's 4", as opposed to 4.5" for me last run....but that is noise. Well you've appropriately not latched onto any one model run. I mean climo sleet almost always makes it to the Pike, and sometimes makes it as far north as the Lakes Region. Should be a nice thump before it though. GFS is about 50 knots of isentropic lift around that warm nose. Before those temps creep up to freezing in that region, it should rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A parcel sitting around 925 over LI Sound will be at 850 by the time it reaches ORH if the GFS is correct. North of the Pike doesn't toss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well you've appropriately not latched onto any one model run. I mean climo sleet almost always makes it to the Pike, and sometimes makes it as far north as the Lakes Region. Should be a nice thump before it though. GFS is about 50 knots of isentropic lift around that warm nose. Before those temps creep up to freezing in that region, it should rip. I started on Thursday expecting 2-5", 3-6" with a light to mod snowfall here, not much south of pike because it was climo for a SWFE, and lo and behold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO trimmed back on the s edge, but otherwise exactly the same. 4" here. Discounting the GFS which gives you at least 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Out here looks like high-end advisory the most likely verification with low-end warning possible. As expected. Congrats Hubb-to-Dendrite. Guessing 8-ish up there with a loli to13-14" in Lunenburg 37.5, .3" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Box taints early in its NW zone. In the p/c, it's giving me 2-4". Monday Night Snow and sleet. Moderate snow accumulation. Near steady temperature in the lower 20s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Sleet...freezing rain and snow with rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and freezing rain. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 And BED/LWM/ORH 8. What was BDL 2 o r 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Id take 75% of MEX and be happy with it Still planning on pingers here at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The GEM makes me wish I still lived in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Updated BOX map. Subtle differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 WFXTs map. Note they are a Boston area station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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