Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like an inch or two N of 95 to 84 in CT. Maybe 3" spots N of 84.CT not going to see any snow out of this. Sleet to ice to rain south CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I would still watch for sneaky cold to come back to parts of ern MA Tuesday night as well. The GFS has a secondary with winds coming back to N-NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 BOX just posted their HWO. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OFMASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AND RHODE ISLAND..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THEFORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT A MAJORITYOF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. ACCUMULATIONIS EXPECTED ... THE FIRST THIS WINTER SEASON. THE GREATEST IMPACTIS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ... LINGERING INTOTHE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.THURSDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A LOWRISK FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 A good sleet pounding too? Hopefully. Haven't looked at soundings plus I'm no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 2-4" will be my call here Going with 1 or 1.5" here before sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM is very similar to 00z too. Still has that massive warm punch at 700-750 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CT not going to see any snow out of this. Sleet to ice to rain south CT NCT will see snow and pick up a quick inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM is very similar to 00z too. Still has that massive warm punch at 700-750 Yeah it pelts a lot. But I'd definitely go for this, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM is very similar to 00z too. Still has that massive warm punch at 700-750 Interestingly still much colder than the GFS at 850 though, especially up in NY/VT/NH. End result is a hell of a lot of sleet for most south of the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Interestingly still much colder than the GFS at 850 though, especially up in NY/VT/NH. End result is a hell of a lot of sleet for most south of the MA/NH border. Ugly for SNE snowlovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The GFS thermal looks a lot more like climo with a SW to NE gradient to the thermal profiles. Like the GGEM would have me snowing while Dryslot is mixing, and that's not usually the case as I may be further north in latitude, but longitude plays a bigger role a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 20-24" for Lunenburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 20-24" for Lunenburg First call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 First call? Start there and raise them if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The GFS thermal looks a lot more like climo with a SW to NE gradient to the thermal profiles. Like the GGEM would have me snowing while Dryslot is mixing, and that's not usually the case as I may be further north in latitude, but longitude plays a bigger role a lot. I find it to be warm on many occasions when the other models thermal profiles are colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'd definitely not favor the extent of the 700mb warm punch in relation to how cold 850 is on GGEM. I'd probably tone that down a bit making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Start there and raise them if needed. Yeah, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 NCT will see snow and pick up a quick inch or two.Nah.. This has all the ear marks of one of those deals where models underestimate the warmth aloft and you think you will get a few inches and it starts as sleet quickly to zr. I'd be surprised if anyone from Sturbridge south sees much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'd definitely not favor the extent of the 700mb warm punch in relation to how cold 850 is on GGEM. I'd probably tone that down a bit making a forecast. There's a bunch of things interesting, like I don't get 1.25" of QPF in SWFEs haha. Every other model is like a half inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM is and remains junk, year round. Why bother even taking it into consideration. Use RGEM though starting Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nah.. This has all the ear marks of one of those deals where models underestimate the warmth aloft and you think you will get a few inches and it starts as sleet quickly to zr. I'd be surprised if anyone from Sturbridge south sees much snow Let's see how the ticks play out next two days...still time to iron out details for those on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 In the end, This can still tic colder so no one should toss in the towel for at least another 24hrs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Let's see how the ticks play out next two days...still time for a wiggle here and there. I agree. I too think there will be a lil snow in CT, with the model runs at this moment. Obviously if things get warmer on subsequent runs, then the idea for any snow also decreases. That is a pretty impressive high pressure system as modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'd definitely not favor the extent of the 700mb warm punch in relation to how cold 850 is on GGEM. I'd probably tone that down a bit making a forecast. Will I have a question , would heavy rates overcome this warm area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 In the end, This can still tic colder so no one should toss in the towel for at least another 24hrs or soWe're less than 60 hours from start time. There's not enough time left to shift cold enough to make any appreciable difference south of I 90. Especially in light of the fact swfe trend warmer the last 48 hours. When was the last time one trended snowier and colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We're less than 60 hours from start time. There's not enough time left to shift cold enough to make any appreciable difference south of I 90. Especially in light of the fact swfe trend warmer the last 48 hours. When was the last time one trended snowier and colder? This was never a large snow threat south of the pike...JMHO. Always has a looked like a light, to perhaps moderate snowfall in this area...classic SWFE. Deciding between 2-5", 3-6", or 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Will I have a question , would heavy rates overcome this warm area ? Possibly. It would have to rip but it could. Those shallow warm layers are always tough to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Will I have a question , would heavy rates overcome this warm area ? Probably not in that case. 50mb warm layer can be overcome. Maybe 100mb with large flakes, very cold flakes, and/or dry air. That's probably a sleet sounding. But it could also oscilate ptype there. But of course that's just a model forecast sounding. Actual soundings could over/or underestimate warmth at any layer. A forecasted warm layer could easily go isothermal and there's your snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'd definitely not favor the extent of the 700mb warm punch in relation to how cold 850 is on GGEM. I'd probably tone that down a bit making a forecast. If I had to make a call now because someone that mattered actually cared what I thought, I'd go EURO/GFS compromise....3-6". Pending the emergence of RGEM data, obviously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Thanks guys . Not expecting much but I'd take any at this rate lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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