CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 How was my comment negative???? I would love a couple ticks southward to keep more qpf as snow. You will do quite fine. Rt 2 latitude helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I don't get where there these snow fall amounts are even coming from? My local met is saying mixed at best in SNH and maybe further north we may get measurable snow? The ground is to warm and doesn't matter , which is why there will be no measurable snow, since we go back to the 50's by New years year. Though my parents had a white Christmas in Pahrump NV. which was there first in a long time! Don't see a major change in the next 10 days unless some one can point me to a different solution?Warm ground in late December? lolololololololThat's a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The reassuring of eeyore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Warm ground in late December? lololololololol That's a new one. Is that snownh's dad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Warm ground in late December? lololololololol That's a new one. 50s and 60s every day in December is also a new one.NYC is going to finish the month with a mean temperature around 51.0F. That makes DEC 2015 the first meteorological winter month to average above 50F in 140 years of record keeping, and also the warmest DEC by a margin of 6-7F. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 50s and 60s every day in December is also a new one. NYC is going to finish the month with a mean temperature around 51.0F. That makes DEC 2015 the first meteorological winter month to average above 50F in 140 years of record keeping, and also the warmest DEC by a margin of 6-7F. Sad. What's that have to do with snow accumulating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Verbatim, the 06z GFS soundings are supersaturated with respect to ice but subsaturated with respect to liquid in the DGZ. It wouldn't shock me if there were some cloud-top convective generating cells Tuesday morning/afternoon as the GFS forecasts theta-e to increase very slowly or remain constant with height at this time, near or just below the DGZ. Those features might be able to grow some ice particles as dendrites aloft, increasing the efficiency of aggregation as they collect other types of ice particles. I would expect ice nucleation at the colder temperatures given the supersaturated (w.r.t. ice) conditions up to and above 400 mb. With the most negative omega values around 650 mb (at KALB), temperatures of -7 to -3 C here would favor columns, plates, and more isometric particles as the dominant crystal habits growing in the profile. The liquid-saturated conditions at 650 mb and below suggest the potential for riming given the higher fall speeds of plates and isometric crystals vs. the fall speeds of dendrites. However, these particles will likely also aggregate as they fall into regions of temperatures near freezing. very informative post. Thanks, nice read. Should be some pretty prolific totals up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Doesn't help that we're already being bombarded with "how much?" questions for Tuesday when we have headlines up for 24 hours from now. Was pleasantly surprised yesterday evening when we heard that tonight's cold rain became an advisory event. A couple inches of sleety snow would be a nice base underneath Tuesday's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What's that have to do with snow accumulating?Tubes wrote the infamous OKX AFD of Oct 11? Should be interesting when Sundays moisture in the ground flash freezes Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I've been trying to figure something out on the guidance and I'm stumped. On the past several GFS runs and on the Euro as well, there's been a little warm finger at 850 that's been shooting much further north than the main 850 freezing line. It's position varies by run, but generally, it's been going into western NY or into the eastern Lakes. Is there some science behind why the model keeps wanting to shoot a little column of warmth through that area, or is it just the GFS being the GFS? I can't some up with an explanation for why there would be a hundred mile intrusion of warmth at that one few dozen mile wide area, but I'm probably missing something. Images of the 6z and 0z GFS(Easier to see since the whole finger goes above 0c) for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Sun angle has increased since Monday. Snow cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What's that have to do with snow accumulating?The high was between 50-60F the previous 9 days before this snowfall on 12/19 here in SVT. As you can see, not great stickage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 With the high sliding off to the east you are seeing the return flow of warn air and the function of terrain. Cold air gets dammed in the Adirondacks but not so over the hills of CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 With the high sliding off to the east you are seeing the return flow of warn air and the function of terrain. Cold air gets dammed in the Adirondacks but not so over the hills of CNY. Makes sense -- thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No real changes on 12z GFS vs 06z. Pretty decent thump for pike northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Very good thump, 6-10" for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No real changes on 12z GFS vs 06z. Pretty decent thump for pike northward.Pretty remarkable how stable the model output has been since Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Makes sense -- thanks!CNY torches in these setups I have also seen more snow at gore vs whiteface in these setups as the warm toung at 700mb can race into slk still I think both areas should pick up 4 to 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 9-12z is a real thump for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CNY torches in these setups I have also seen more snow at gore vs whiteface in these setups as the warm toung at 700mb can race into slk still I think both areas should pick up 4 to 8 inches I'd definitely be happy if we grabbed 4-8", I'm thinking more like 3-5" for Whiteface then a bunch of sleet. Definitely some room for upside though if the models are even slightly too warm aloft, but considering that warm finger is there and well modeled on all guidance(and common as you said), I'd rather keep expectations low and be happily surprised. Will whiten up the landscape though even if it doesn't do much for the ski trails and for that I'm thankful I agree with you on 4-8" for Gore. They need it way more than Whiteface does so glad they're getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is definitely the type of setup where Essex county MA could have the highest total in SNE. The wedging is really strong up there. Pretty good spot for BOS too. That high is really impressive right at befor the onset so we will have to watch for "the 24 hour cold trend" late in the game. Don't want to get too far ahead as some synoptic shifts can still happen...but assuming they don't shift too much, I'll be really interested to see how that cold delivery is modeled in the final 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like an inch or two N of 95 to 84 in CT. Maybe 3" spots N of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Berks really get some impressive omega,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 5" or perhaps even verify a warning in GC before the changeover. Looks like the snow will be but a memory come New Year's. Enjoy it while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 2-4" will be my call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like an inch or two N of 95 to 84 in CT. Maybe 3" spots N of 84. A good sleet pounding too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Very impressive low level cold below 900mb too. This is thumpage for Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 5" or perhaps even verify a warning in GC before the changeover. Looks like the snow will be but a memory come New Year's. Enjoy it while it lasts. wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I used to have a page that you could drag/click to get a skew-t. I lost that bookmark on computer--anyone have anything similar? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 wut? I'm calling 5-8" at this point. Adjust later on if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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