powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As long as the grass is..do you think 2-3 would cover it? Seems like 4-6 is needed What? Do you live in a field if 4-6" is needed to cover your grass? 2-3" on a snowboard would most definitely cover the grass. In October when I had 1.5" it almost covered it completely, just the very tips poking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I just want to be done with double digit positive departures Anything else is gravy +33 yesterday for the daily mean departure. It can only go down from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Don't mind me lurking!or commenting, ww3 erupted in NYC forum lol! Wow! On Christmas? Those comments would never have seen the light of day here without some punishment weeded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GFS looks like it may come in colder than 12z based on what I see through 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah GFS is definitely a bit colder. Pretty good thump for pike region. Prob high end advisory and warning snows not too far north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah a very good wAA thump. A bit colder too. On phone, but that's what I see as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah a very good wAA thump. A bit colder too. On phone, but that's what I see as well. 700 was colder too. I checked both 850 and 700. The WCB nose really produces good 6 hour precip totals. That would flip to sleet even into CNE and parts of NNE but a much better solution overall. Interior probably not sniffing freezing with that secondary low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This run should bring some back off the ledge, Until 0z anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah definitely a tick colder for sure. Hopefully this is a trend back to those colder solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This run should bring some back off the ledge, Until 0z anyways yeah, you would think people have learned by know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 yeah, you would think people have learned by know.. You would but I think this pattern we have been in makes it a little tougher to swallow for some Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 looks like a general 4-10" Berks do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 looks like a general 4-10" Berks do well. Yeah pretty much pike north except 12"+ Northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 700 was colder too. I checked both 850 and 700. The WCB nose really produces good 6 hour precip totals. That would flip to sleet even into CNE and parts of NNE but a much better solution overall. Interior probably not sniffing freezing with that secondary low track. It definitely pushed the isentropic lift a bit more south and east and didn't get that good slug of WAA precip as far north in NNE, and then the ULL stuff is a bit too far north. Still solid advisory event that would cover the grass (all that matters, haha). But its definitely a little change in that regard. Its going to bounce back and forth with those two precip features though as it has been the past two days. If this is going to go the colder route, I'd definitely enjoy it going all the way south to get NNE into that deform banding and ULL stuff, haha. Pretty much no matter what happens with temps, SNE/CNE will get into that strong WAA lift to produce hourly 0.1-0.15" type precip rates for a good 6 or even 8 hour block, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 700 was colder too. I checked both 850 and 700. The WCB nose really produces good 6 hour precip totals. That would flip to sleet even into CNE and parts of NNE but a much better solution overall. Interior probably not sniffing freezing with that secondary low track. Well that's good to hear about H7. It's just so hard for models to get a clue about these ejecting SW US shortwaves. They'll take years off your life if you bite at day 6. It's not a surprise the sharp swings in solutions for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Gfs was super cold last night at 0z then it torched at 12z, now it's colder at 18z. Sure, Im glad it didn't send PF to nosedive off upper liftline with bare ground underneath him...but I'm not exactly sold on where the gfs is going from here. Skeptical until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This threat pretty much inside 96 hrs once it starts, 18z GFS brings precip in SNE at hr 84 still a ways to go but should start seeing more consistency over the next 24-36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well that's good to hear about H7. It's just so hard for models to get a clue about these ejecting SW US shortwaves. They'll take years off your life if you bite at day 6. It's not a surprise the sharp swings in solutions for sure. Are the swings in solutions though really that large in the grand scheme of things? At least not at this time frame, but it seems like the goal posts are pretty much there. Its just nailing down the real gritty details. It seems like you could say POPS are near 100% and near 100% for at least some measurable winter precipitation for all. But in like 50 miles you could go from 1-2" of snow/IP/ZR/RN to like 6-7" of thump. I think Ray's been on the right path with it going climo SWFE. S.VT/S.NH/RT 2/Lakes Region areas thump hardest in these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ohio group believes south trend coming back hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Are the swings in solutions though really that large in the grand scheme of things? At least not at this time frame, but it seems like the goal posts are pretty much there. Its just nailing down the real gritty details. It seems like you could say POPS are near 100% and near 100% for at least some measurable winter precipitation for all. But in like 50 miles you could go from 1-2" of snow/IP/ZR/RN to like 6-7" of thump. At this point they are pretty much set but for some on the fringe these shifts in the track has some big implications to precip types and amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There talking in Ohio lakes board about it coming further north or something by them then forecasted. I'll look again to double check what was said Yea The primary is further north where Chicago is now rain and the best snows are in IA and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 At this point they are pretty much set but for some on the fringe these shifts in the track has some big implications to precip types and amounts Story of last winter continues for sw ne. But it's good this is still alive, at least until we see what the EC does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 At this point they are pretty much set but for some on the fringe these shifts in the track has some big implications to precip types and amounts Yeah I guess that was what I was saying. Still won't nail those gritty details until like 24-36 hours, or even closer when we are in high-res RGEM and WRF territory. But for the time frame we've been watching, the consistency has been pretty good amongst the global models. Its not like two are showing a SWFE and one global is showing a straight cutter or shredded suppressed version. For 48 hours now all three main global models have been showing a similar solution, just with slight ticks north or south (but those do have big implications). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 At this point they are pretty much set but for some on the fringe these shifts in the track has some big implications to precip types and amounts I guess if we are talking 200-300 mile shifts..... That's probably done. Sensible weather wise, still a lot at stake. The strength of the high, positioning..... A shift of 75 miles or so means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah I guess that was what I was saying. Still won't nail those gritty details until like 24-36 hours, or even closer when we are in high-res RGEM and WRF territory. But for the time frame we've been watching, the consistency has been pretty good amongst the global models. Its not like two are showing a SWFE and one global is showing a straight cutter or shredded suppressed version. For 48 hours now all three main global models have been showing a similar solution, just with slight ticks north or south (but those do have big implications).As well as I am, I thing the huge shifts are off the table and it's a matter of the heaviest precip shield shifting north or south Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I guess if we are talking 200-300 mile shifts..... That's probably done. Sensible weather wise, still a lot at stake. The strength of the high, positioning..... A shift of 75 miles or so means a lot. As much as we'd like, we aren't going to get the global models to agree on distances of that scale at this lead time. They have been pretty darn consistent at the synoptic scale at Day 4 to Day 7 that we've been watching it. Just slight timing differences with the ejecting energy and the high pressure interaction. Anyway, tomorrow and Sunday we'll start to get the players better sampled. I know that's a weenie phrase, but I don't think it can be overlooked that once all the players are on the field it'll really narrow the goal-posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As much as we'd like, we aren't going to get the global models to agree on distances of that scale at this lead time. They have been pretty darn consistent at the synoptic scale at Day 4 to Day 7 that we've been watching it. Just slight timing differences with the ejecting energy and the high pressure interaction. Anyway, tomorrow and Sunday we'll start to get the players better sampled. I know that's a weenie phrase, but I don't think it can be overlooked that once all the players are on the field it'll really narrow the goal-posts. Agreed. This seems like a kind of difficult setup to really narrow down specifics. You have the timing of both the system and the high playing key roles. How those two things ultimately interact will determine who gets what. Do I get an inch of slop of do I get a good 3-5" thump.... Still up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Are the swings in solutions though really that large in the grand scheme of things? At least not at this time frame, but it seems like the goal posts are pretty much there. Its just nailing down the real gritty details. It seems like you could say POPS are near 100% and near 100% for at least some measurable winter precipitation for all. But in like 50 miles you could go from 1-2" of snow/IP/ZR/RN to like 6-7" of thump. I think Ray's been on the right path with it going climo SWFE. S.VT/S.NH/RT 2/Lakes Region areas thump hardest in these. That's a pretty sizeable change in 12hrs from 00z to 12z IMO. We expect changes this far out, but all features changes rather significantly I thought. However, that's not unheard of with these setups, so you can't say it's not common. I've seen these changes before and way closer than 108 hrs out. It's a pretty awesome display of behavior between the ULL in TX and the confluence in srn Canada. It's beautiful to watch how they relate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 3-6, 4-8"....worst case 2-5" for my area. Don't go nuts in the outer direction either because we will probably see some over trending.... that is a nice high. I wish folks would get a grip. GFS continues theme of liking a zone from my area points west to about Ayer for naked twisty time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 If I get 1-3 then plenty of ice ending as snow. I'd sign for that right now. Deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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