CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The high didn't go anywhere on the euro op it's north of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I mean surface to 850 delta Ts are going to be large enough to generate some ocean effect precip. Maybe a bonus for coastal areas even when the mid level dry slot moves in? Instead of drizzle maybe we can maintain some snow showers with a really low DGZ. They'll be some in the beginning too, if 850s are that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The ensembles at 12z seemed notably colder on the Euro than the Op. I haven't seen the 00z ones yet. The Euro seems to more want to shunt the high out of the way faster than the other guidance. Perhaps that is correct, but with that low just offshore Nova Scotia I don't know if that high will be so well positioned to depart as easily 00z EPS is warmer at 12z Tuesday, nearly identical at 00z Wednesday looking at the 850 mb progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 They'll be some in the beginning too, if 850s are that cold. Like Will said last night, it's a deep layer high pressure. That cold dome is impressive, especially at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yes I was somewhat correct, we will see OES before the onset of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Like Will said last night, it's a deep layer high pressure. That cold dome is impressive, especially at onset. Sure is. We take delta Ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Weatherunderground upped the totals from last night for my area...5-8 Monday night and and another 3-5 with plzr mix, also says watching a potential snowstorm for Tue... My guess is 3-6 with pingers here in the Northwest hills, CNE jackpot looks like maybe afoot or more..still way early though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO now MUCH more realistic qualitatively speaking.....but unless that secondary cranks early and often, its a bit aggressive on upper totals imo. Nitpicking at extended leads, I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Any euro snow map? How do the Adirondacks look 6 to 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Lots of good points brought up this morning. Merry Christmas to peeps BTW. This is a pretty classic SWFE. Lots of typical ingredients are in place. The strong cold high pressure, deep layer SW flow from about 800mb upwards. Good moisture source from the south. Still plenty of questions though to be answered. The high is strong and in a spot that you typically like to see for an over performer. However, don't forget that this can tick north with these features too. It's a battle between that high and the pumping up of heights ahead of that very vigorous shortwave. Which will win? This battle is a good thing though as it usually results in very intense frontogenesis on the nose of that WCB (warm conveyor belt). So someone is probably gonna get clocked pretty good. We have about 96 hours to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro EPS has high probably of 6"+ from S/C VT and NH northward, which pretty much looks like a climate map of a latitudinal gradient. From 2-3" in CT to 6+ in CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro EPS has high probably of 6"+ from S/C VT and NH northward, which pretty much looks like a climate map of a latitudinal gradient. From 2-3" in CT to 6+ in CNE/NNE. This is actually what I thought yesterday. I expect another tic or two northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This is actually what I thought yesterday. I expect another tic or two northward. Except this is not our normal SWFE. As Will discussed the high building in and not sliding east is going to likely mean more snow farther south and places along the north shore never sniff 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Looks as though the GFS may have me in some naked twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Lots of good points brought up this morning. Merry Christmas to peeps BTW. This is a pretty classic SWFE. Lots of typical ingredients are in place. The strong cold high pressure, deep layer SW flow from about 800mb upwards. Good moisture source from the south. Still plenty of questions though to be answered. The high is strong and in a spot that you typically like to see for an over performer. However, don't forget that this can tick north with these features too. It's a battle between that high and the pumping up of heights ahead of that very vigorous shortwave. Which will win? This battle is a good thing though as it usually results in very intense frontogenesis on the nose of that WCB (warm conveyor belt). So someone is probably gonna get clocked pretty good. We have about 96 hours to figure it out. Except this is not our normal SWFE. As Will discussed the high building in and not sliding east is going to likely mean more snow farther south and places along the north shore never sniff 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Except this is not our normal SWFE. As Will discussed the high building in and not sliding east is going to likely mean more snow farther south and places along the north shore never sniff 32 A good SWFE always has a stout high. Otherwise it's 2" of snow than 32.1F rain. The issue is the warm tongue. Those always are tough to stop when mid level lows move west. The high more or less helps with the front end thump and locking in low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Looks as though the GFS may have me in some naked twister. It does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 A good SWFE always has a stout high. Otherwise it's 2" of snow than 32.1F rain. The issue is the warm tongue. Those always are tough to stop when mid level lows move west. The high more or less helps with the front end thump and locking in low level cold. One of these seasons he will learn that low level cold advection does nothing to stop a warm tongue from tickling his scalp at H7-H8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One of these seasons he will learn that low level cold advection does nothing to stop a warm tongue from tickling his scalp at H7-H8 It certainly helps to slow it down a bit, but the warm tongue is not denied if indeed the models hold onto their solution, especially south of pike. Not that I want to get to descriptive this far out, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It certainly helps to slow it down a bit, but the warm tongue is not denied if indeed the models hold onto their solution, especially south of pike. Not that I want to get to descriptive this far out, but you get the idea. Not at all unfounded when speaking within the context of a climo proclivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not at all unfounded when speaking within the context of a climo proclivity.Right now I'd hedge on the snowier type SWFE for us. Knowing the ceiling is 10" or so with the average being 2-5", I'd go 3-6" right now.Usual caveats apply four days out though. Features could shift north for less snow or that coastal could take over for more. I feel these things wobble south and north a few days out and then slowly tick north right before game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Out of curiosity, is the newer Euro similar to its current counterpart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 A good SWFE always has a stout high. Otherwise it's 2" of snow than 32.1F rain. The issue is the warm tongue. Those always are tough to stop when mid level lows move west. The high more or less helps with the front end thump and locking in low level cold.I think 2-4 HFD to Pike and 6-10 pike north is most likely.. With 1/4 of icing south of pike before back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Right now I'd hedge on the snowier type SWFE for us. Knowing the ceiling is 10" or so with the average being 2-5", I'd go 3-6" right now. Usual caveats apply four days out though. Features could shift north for less snow or that coastal could take over for more. I feel these things wobble south and north a few days out and then slowly tick north right before game time. I'd go 4-8" right now.....the current consensus is 6-10", but I want to leave wiggle room for nw tics. It will be a decent snowfall now that nearly optimal placement of significant +pp is of high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'd go 4-8" right now.....the current consensus is 6-10", but I want to leave wiggle room for nw tics. It will be a decent snowfall now that nearly optimal placement of significant +pp is of high confidence. Good call. It's all about that HP. Otherwise, I'd be calling for first flakes quickly to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The wxbell folks have the Euro control, SV has the parallel but I can't access it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Thinking a warning has a decent chance of verifying out this way. Still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Man, what a weenie run of the GEM.....2' jackpot right near me and just to the west over next 10 days. I'm going to like enjoy CF and paste this season.....was getting sick of the sugar, with OES money shots all over scooter's burly chest and his black pompador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Man, what a weenie run of the GEM.....2' jackpot right near me and just to the west over next 10 days.Does it get that NYD Storm to deliver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Does it get that NYD Storm to deliver? The Euro has that has a rainer pretty far north. I asked earlier, but mets didn't answer if that had a chance of trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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