January 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Okay so I think we are just into penalty time but everyone who was a regular in 2015 and several of the new people from Nov-Dec have posted ... Tenman I will send you a PM about the west, shame to miss out on all the fun we have out here.

 

I will get a table going later today.

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts January 2016

 

 forecasts are listed in order of DCA anomalies, then where tied, NYC etc.

 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Maxim ____________________ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.5 ____ --2.0 _ --2.0 _ +2.0

wxallannj __________________ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ --1.2 ____ --1.2 _ --1.3 _ +2.9

SD _______________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0

BKViking __________________ +1.4 _ +1,1 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ --0.7 _ +0.2 ____ +2.1 _ +0.7 _ +2.1

Mallow ____________________+1.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 _ --1.4 ____ +0.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.9

blazess556 ________________ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.2 ___ --1.3 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ____ --2.8 _ --1.2 _ +2.1

Midlo Snow Maker __________ +1.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.3 ___ +1.5 _ --2.0 _ --2.4 ____ +1.0 _ --2.1 _ --0.9

OHWeather ________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ --1.2 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ____ --3.0 _ --1.0 _ +2.0
SnowWeenie _______________+0.9 _ +1.2 _ --1.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 ____ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +2.0

nzucker _____ (-6%) _________+0.4 _ +1.7 _ +2.2 ___ +2.6 _ --1.0 _ --1.8 ____ +0.9 _ --2.1 _ --0.7

hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.3 _ +0.6 _ +0.8 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 ____ --0.3 _ --0.5 _ --0.3

wxdude64 _________________ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.1 _ --1.0 _ --1.4 _____ 0.0 _ --0.3 _ +1.7

Damage in Tolland __________ +0.1 _ --0.1 _ --0.5 ____ 0.0 _ --0.5 _ +0.5 ____ +1.5 _ +0.3 _ +1.5

..

Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

..

DonSutherland.1 ____________--0.5 _ --0,1 _ +0.4 ___ +2.0 _ --0.9 _ --1.8 ____ +1.8 _ +0.8 _ +2.3

..

Consensus ________________ --0.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.2 ___--0.2 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 ____ --0.3 _ --1.0 _ +1.2

..

ksammut __________________ --0.5 _ --0,1 _ --0.5 ___ --0.8 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 ____ --3.0 _ --3.0 _ --1.5 

Stebo _____________________--0.5 _ --0.2 _ +0.2 ___ +1.4 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 ____ --1.0 _ +0.4 _ +1.0

RodneyS __________________--1.0 _ --0.6 _ --0.2 ___ --1.0 _ --2.4 _ --3.9 ____ --7.0 _ --4.0 _ --0.8

Tenman Johnson ___________  --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ____ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0

dmillz25 ___________________ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ --1.3 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ____ +2.3 _ +1.0 _ +2.0

Roger Smith ________________--1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.2 ___ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 ____ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --2.5

Rjay ______________________ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 ___ --0.5 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 _____ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +2.5

H20town_WX __ (-2%) ________--1.2 _ --0.9 _ --0.8 ___ +1.8 _ --1.5 _ +0.3 ____ +2.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6

Daniel Boone _______________ --1.3 _ --1.2 _ --0.5 ___ --0.2 _ --1.6 _ --2.1 ____ --0.4 _ --1.1 _+1.2

Isotherm ___________________ --1.6 _ --1.7 _ --1.5 ___ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.8 ____ --1.3 _ --1.0 _ +1.1

snoski14 ___________________--1.8 _ --1.3 _ --1.0 ___ --0.9 _ --2.0 _ --2.5 ____ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ +1,0 
Tom ______________________ --2.9 _ --1.9 _ --0.9 ___ --2.4 _ --3.7 _ --2.8 ____ --1.0 _ --0.2 _ +1.1

debeaches _________________ --4.2 _ --1.8 _ --0.8 ___ --1.1 _ --5.4 _ --3.4 ____ +1.9 _ +1.0 _ +3.5

_______________________________________________________________________

 

now 27 forecasters (plus Consensus and Normal)

so consensus is the 14th ranked forecast (median value) ...

welcome to Daniel Boone and SnowWeenie, welcome back everyone else, and good luck as we start the new contest year ...

 

(edit on Jan 24th -- in checking the scoring table against entries I discovered one error that being the end of the row for wxdude64 which has now been corrected -- only PHX and SEA were slightly different)

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA... ...NYC... ...BOS ....ATL....IAH....ORD ....DEN...PHX...SEA

 

-1.2... ....-0.9.... ....-0.8...-1.5....+0.3...+1.8... ...+2.2...+1.0...+1.6

[nzucker]

Dca +0.4

NYC +1.7

BOS +2.2

ORD +2.6

ATL -1.0

IAH -1.8

DEN +0.9

PHX -2.1

SEA -0.7

[Roger Smith]

First look at how the month is evolving:

 

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (5d) ______ --0.2 _ --1.2 _ +0,6 ____ +1,6 _ --2.8 _ --4.4 ____ --1.0 _ +1.9 _ --4.3

_____ (8d) ______ +0.2 _ +0.6 _ +2.4 ____ +5,1 _ --0.8 _ --1.6 ____ --1.2 _ --0.2 _ --2.4

____ (10d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ____ +3,7 _ --0.2 _ --2.2 ____ --3.6 _ --1.4 _ --1.9

____ (12d) ______ +2.1 _ +3.1 _ +4.8 ____ +1,0 _ --1.1 _ --3.0 ____ --3.3 _ --1.9 _ --1.5

 

_____ (p19d) ____ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +2.8 ____ --3.2 _ --2.3 _ --2.4 ____ --1.0 _ --1.4 _ +0.5

 

_____ (p29d) ____ --0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 ____ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.2 ____ +0.7 __ 0.0 _ +1.6

 

Updated snowfall totals (as of 06z 13th):

 

ORD _ 20.6" DEN _ 26.1" and BOS _ 1.2" __ SEA and NYC and as of 12th also DCA have a trace, all others zero ...

 

(3.5" snow Jan 7-8 at DEN, 1.7" on 9th and 3.1" 11th at ORD (also 0.1" 12th and 0.3" at BOS 12th) are the only additional measurable snowfalls so far this year anywhere in the grid. Snowfall contest forecasts have been reposted to this thread in the next post.)

 

Now looking rather close to average for eastern and central regions in the 8-16d outlook and +3.0 used for western).

 

This post will be updated for 10 days, then every 2d to 16th. This post will be terminated today, the next update will appear in a new post on 15th after which the countdown will become daily.

 

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal snowfall forecasts 2015-16

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Tom ____________________41.2" _ 52.8" _ 49.1" __ 31.2" _ 8.1" _ 0.9" ___ 64.9" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"

Stebo ___________________37.0" _ 42.0" _ 47.0" __ 32.0" _ 5.0" _ 1.5" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

Rjay ____________________35.0" _ 47.0" _ 58.0" __ 20.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 70.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

OHweather ______________ 35.0" _ 37.0" _ 46.0" __ 31.0" _ 4.5" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

Isotherm _________________32.2" _ 37.4" _ 43.6" __ 22.4" _ 3.5" _ 0.1" ___ 57.1" _ 0.0" _ 4.3"

dmillz25 _________________ 26.7" _ 56.9" _ 74.6" __ 34.3" _ 6.7" _ 0.5" ___ 69.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.7"
Mallow __________________ 26.0" _ 30.0" _ 41.0" __ 28.0" _ 4.8" _ 0.4" ___ 68.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.2"

DonSutherland.1 __________ 25.0" _ 23.4" _ 36.5" __ 25.5" _ 3.9" _ 0.1" ___ 42.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.5"

wxdude64 _______________ 22.0" _  22.7" _ 30.8" __ 23.6" _11.2" _ 2.1" ___ 67.3" _ 0.0" _ 8.4"

hudsonvalley21____________21.1" _ 20.8" _ 31.1" __ 27.2" _ 1.9" _ 0.0" ___ 46.0" _ 0.0" _ 2.9"

Midlo Snow Maker _________21.0" _ 34.0" _ 49.0" __ 38.0" _ 5.0" _ 1.9" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"

..

Consensus ______________ 20.8" _  24.2" _ 38.8" __ 28.1" _ 4.0" _ 0.5" ___ 58.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"
..

BKViking ________________ 20.5" _ 37.8" _ 58.5" __ 18.7" _10.0"_ 0.5" ___ 75.5" _ 0.4" _ 5.6"

Maxim __________________ 19.0" _ 25.0" _ 35.0" __ 29.0" _ 2.5" _ 0.5" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _ 7.0"

H2OTown_Wx ____________17.3" _ 28.4" _ 33.2" __ 43.1" _ 9.6" _ 3.3" ___ 44.0" _ 0.0" _ 3.7"

blazess556 ______________ 17.0" _ 23.0" _ 33.,0" __27.0" _ 2.2" _ 0.3" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.0"

wxallannj ________________15.7" _ 22.4" _ 27.5" __ 32.0" _ 1.4" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

..

1981-2010 Normals _______ 15.4" _  25.8" _ 43.8" __ 36.3" _ 2.9" _ 0.1" ___ 53.8" _ 0.0" _ 6.8*

..

ksammut ________________14.5" _ 21.0" _ 42.0" __ 38.0" _ 0.1" _ 0.0" ___ 59.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

Tenman Johnson _________ 12.0" _ 16.0" _ 23.0" __ 19.0" _ 4.0" _ 1.0" ___ 56.0" _ 1.0" _ 8.0"

Roger Smith _____________ 11.7" _ 18.5" _ 35.5" __ 28.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.2" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.0"

SD _____________________11.0" _ 20.0" _ 45.0" __ 35.0" _ 3.0" _ 1.0" ___ 65.0" _ 1.0"_12.0"

Damage in Tolland _________ 8.0" _ 16.0" _ 22.0" __ 28.0" _ 4.0" _ 0.3" ___ 66.0" _ 0.1" _ 4.0"

RodneyS _________________0.1" _ 10.0" _ 10.0" __ 20.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 45.0" _ 0.0" _ 3.5"

 

Latest actual snowfalls _____ 18.8" _ 27.2" _ 10.4"__ 22.0" __ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 38.8" _ 0.0" _ 0.0"(tr)

 

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

This table will be maintained until Feb 3 then all updates will appear in the February thread. DEN snowfall for the Feb 1-2 storm is confirmed at 11.6".

[Roger Smith]

The countdown continues in this new post. Anomalies after 8 and 12 days can be seen in the previous version (post 35) ...

 

_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (5d) ______ --0.2 _ --1.2 _ +0,6 ____ +1,6 _ --2.8 _ --4.4 ____ --1.0 _ +1.9 _ --4.3

____ (10d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ____ +3,7 _ --0.2 _ --2.2 ____ --3.6 _ --1.4 _ --1.9

____ (14d) ______ +1.4 _ +2.1 _ +3.8 ____ +0,7 _ --0.9 _ --2.7 ____ --2.1 _ --2.1 _ --0.9

____ (15d) ______ +1.7 _ +2.7 _ +3.9 ____ +1.5 _ --0.7 _ --2.1 ____ --2.3 _ --2.3 _ --1.0

____ (16d) ______ +2.2 _ +3.4 _ +4.3 ____ +1.1 _ --0.2 _ --2.1 ____ --2.6 _ --2.4 _ --0.6

____ (17d) ______ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.9 ____ --0.1 _ --0.3 _ --2.4 ____ --2.8 _ --2.3 _ --0.3

____ (18d) ______ +1.3 _ +2.9 _ +3.9 ____ --1.3 _ --0.9 _ --2.5 ____ --2.3 _ --2.2 __ 0.0

____ (19d) ______ +0.5 _ +2.2 _ +3.2 ____ --2.0 _ --1.6 _ --2.3 ____ --2.1 _ --2.1 _ +0.1

____ (20d) ______ --0.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 ____ --2.2 _ --1.8 _ --2.1 ____ --1.7 _ --1.9 _ +0.3

____ (21d) ______ --0.4 _ +1.9 _ +2.7 ____ --2.3 _ --1.7 _ --1.7 ____ --1.6 _ --1.8 _ +0.6

____ (22d) ______ --0.9 _ +1.5 _ +2.4 ____ --2.2 _ --1.9 _ --2.0 ____ --1.3 _ --1.6 _ +0,9

____ (23d) ______ --1.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.2 ____ --2.0 _ --2.4 _ --2.3 ____ --0.7 _ --1.3 _ +0,9

____ (24d) ______ --1.6 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ____ --1.7 _ --2.5 _ --2.3 ____ --0.4 _ --1.3 _ +0.9

____ (25d) ______ --1.8 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ____ --1.3 _ --2.4 _ --1.8 ____ --0.5 _ --1.2 _ +1.0

____ (26d) ______ --1.5 _ +1.3 _ +2.4 ____ --1.0 _ --2.1 _ --1.7 ____ --0.6 _ --1.2 _ +1.2

____ (27d) ______ --1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.6 ____ --0.8 _ --2.0 _ --1.7 ____ --0.3 _ --1.1 _ +1.6

____ (28d) ______ --1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ____ --0.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.9 ____ +0.1 _ --1.1 _ +1.8

____ (29d) ______ --1.4 _ +1.7 _ +2.9 ____ --0.3 _ --1.6 _ --1.7e____+0.6 _ --1.0 _ +1.8

____ (30d) ______ --1.5 _ +1.6 _ +3.0 ____ +0.3 _ --1.4 _ --1.4 ____ +1.1 _ --0.9 _ +1.7

____ (31d) ______ --1.1 _ +1.9 _ +3.5 ____ +0.9 _ --0.9 _ --0.7 ____ +1.1 _ --0.7 _ +1.7

 

 

 (Feb 1st) __ (15z) All nine stations are now confirmed for their end of month anomalies, slight changes to the scoring table will continue and the tables should be finalized by 1630z. 

 

Updated snowfall totals:

 

DEN _ 38.8" ...  NYC _ 27.2" ... ORD _ 22.0" ... DCA _ 18.8"... BOS _ 10.4" ... ATL _ 0.3"

SEA _ trace, IAH and PHX at zero ... Note this list will not be updated here after Feb 3, but in similar posts in later contest threads (e.g. February 2016 etc).

DCA had 6.5", ORD had 0.4" and ATL, NYC had 0.2" on 22nd, 

Then on 23rd, DCA added 11.3" NYC a huge 26.6" and BOS 6,1".

No measurable snow reported anywhere in our nine stations 24th-29th.

0.8" new snow at DEN on 30th and 0.2" added on 31st.

(added Feb 3rd 13z: DEN added 6.9" on Feb 1st and 4.7" on Feb 2nd for a total of 11.6 inches. At this point this post will be locked and further reporting on snowfall totals will be made in the February contest thread.)

[Tom]

since I went 41.2 in DC need this storm, I am gonna crush all competition lol​

[Roger Smith]

Yep, you're halfway there now, too bad it's not IAD in our contest because you might be almost home free. But a few more storms and you're good.

 

Meanwhile, here is our first look at provisional scoring based on the values in the previous post. These provisional scores will be updated whenever those values change in the countdown to final January values. 

 

 

 

Final scoring for Jan 2016

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ clas ___ ORD_ATL_IAH__ exp ___ TOTALS

 

BKViking __________________ 50 _ 84 _ 52 ____ 186 ____ 98 _ 96 _ 82 ____ 276 ____ 462

wxdude64 _________________ 74 _ 72 _ 40 ____ 186 ____ 84 _ 98 _ 86 ____ 268 ____ 454

nzucker ___________________ 70 _ 96 _ 74 ____ 240 ____ 66 _ 98 _ 78 ____ 242 _ 482

_________ (-6%) ____________66 _ 90 _ 70 ____ 226 ____ 62 _ 92 _ 73 ____ 227 ____ 453

Stebo _____________________88 _ 58 _ 34 ____ 180 ____ 90 _ 98 _ 84 ____ 272 ____ 452

wxallannj __________________ 34 _ 98 _ 64 ____ 196 ____ 98 _ 64 _ 90 ____ 252 ____ 448

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 88 _ 60 _ 38 ____ 186 ____ 78 _100_ 78 ____ 256 ____ 444

..

Consensus _________________88 _ 60 _ 26 ____ 174 ____ 78 _ 98 _ 84 ____ 260 ____ 434

..

Mallow ____________________ 52 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 200 ____ 74 _ 60 _ 86 ____ 220 ____ 420

..

Normal ____________________78 _ 62 _ 30 ____ 170 ____ 82 _ 82 _ 86 ____ 250 ____ 420

..

Midlo Snow Maker ___________56 _ 74 _ 56 ____ 186 ____ 88 _ 78 _ 66 ____ 232 ____ 418

blazess556 _________________56 _ 80 _ 54 ____ 190 ____ 56 _ 90 _ 78 ____ 224 ____ 414

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 72 _ 74 _ 46 ____ 192 ____ 92 _ 66 _ 62 ____ 220 ____ 412

OHWeather ________________ 58 _ 78 _ 52 ____ 188 ____ 58 _ 88 _ 74 ____ 220 ____ 408
Damage in Tolland ___________76 _ 60 _ 20 ____ 156 ____ 82 _ 92 _ 76 ____ 250 ____ 406

Tenman Johnson ____________98 _ 42 _ 10 ____ 150 ____ 62 _ 98 _ 94 ____ 254 ____ 404

SD _______________________ 48 _ 92 _ 50 ____ 190 ____ 82 _ 62 _ 66 ____ 210 ____ 400

Roger Smith _______________  98 _ 42 _ 06 ____ 146 ____ 72 _ 98 _ 84 ____ 254 ____ 400

H20town_WX _______________ 98 _ 44 _ 14 ____ 156 ____ 82 _ 88 _ 80 ____ 250 _ 406

______________ (-2%) _______ 96 _ 43 _ 14 ____ 153 ____ 80 _ 86 _ 78 ____ 244 ____ 397

ksammut ___________________88 _ 60 _ 20 ____ 168 ____ 66 _ 78 _ 84 ____ 228 ____ 396

Daniel Boone _______________ 96 _ 38 _ 20 ____ 154 ____ 78 _ 86 _ 72 ____ 236 ____ 390

SnowWeenie _______________ 60 _ 86 _ 10 ____ 156 ____ 32 _ 98 _ 96 ____ 226 ____ 382

Rjay ______________________ 98 _ 32 _ 00 ____ 130 ____ 72 _ 88 _ 84 ____ 244 ____ 374

dmillz25 ___________________ 98 _ 42 _ 10 ____ 150 ____ 56 _ 88 _ 74 ____ 218 ____ 368

RodneyS ___________________98 _ 50 _ 26 ____ 174 ____ 62 _ 70 _ 36 ____ 168 ____ 342

snoski14 ___________________ 86 _ 36 _ 10 ____ 132 ____ 64 _ 78 _ 64 ____ 206 ____ 338
Isotherm ___________________ 90 _ 28 _ 00 ____ 118 ____ 62 _ 78 _ 78 ____ 218 ____ 336

Maxim _____________________ 00 _ 48 _ 90 ____ 138 ____ 18 _ 52 _ 84 ____ 154 ____ 292

Tom _______________________64 _ 24 _ 12 ____ 100 ____ 34 _ 44 _ 58 ____ 136 ____ 236

debeaches __________________38 _ 26 _ 14 _____ 78 ____ 60 _ 10 _ 46 ____ 116 ____ 194

_______________________________________________________________________

 

 

Final scoring Jan 2016 -- western contest and all scores

 

FORECASTER ____________DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS ____ all nine (rank)

 

snoski14 _________________ 88 _ 96 _ 86 ____ 270 _________ 608 (18)
wxdude64 ________________ 78 _ 92 _100____ 270 _________ 724 (1)

Damage in Tolland _________ 92 _ 80 _ 96 ____ 268 _________ 674 (t4)

SnowWeenie ______________92 _ 70 _ 94 ____ 256 _________ 638 (11)

..

Consensus _______________ 72 _ 94 _ 90 ____ 256 _________ 690 (3)

..

Rjay _____________________78 _ 94 _ 84 ____ 256 _________ 630 (14)

Daniel Boone ______________70 _ 92 _ 90 ____ 252 _________ 642 (9)

BKViking _________________ 80 _ 72 _ 92 ____ 244 _________ 706 (2)

DonSutherland.1 ___________ 86 _ 70 _ 88 ____ 244 _________ 686 (3)

H20town_WX ______________78 _ 66 _ 98 _ 242

______________ (-2%) ______76 _ 65 _ 96 ____ 237 _________ 634 (13)

Tom _____________________ 58 _ 90 _ 88 ____ 236 _________ 472 (25)

Mallow ___________________ 88 _ 62 _ 84 ____ 234 _________ 654 (8)

Isotherm __________________52 _ 94 _ 88 ____ 234 _________ 570 (21)

dmillz25 __________________ 76 _ 66 _ 94 ____ 236 _________ 604 (19)

..

Normal ___________________ 78 _ 86 _ 66 ____ 230 _________ 650 (9)

..

hudsonvalley21 _____________72 _ 96 _ 60 ____ 228 _________ 640 (10)

SD _______________________48 _ 94 _ 86 ____ 228 _________ 628 (15)

Stebo _____________________58 _ 78 _ 86 ____ 222 _________ 674 (t4)

Midlo Snow Maker ___________98 _ 72 _ 48 ____ 218 _________ 636 (12)

wxallannj __________________ 54 _ 88 _ 76 ____ 218 _________ 666 (6)

debeaches _________________84 _ 66 _ 64 ____ 214 _________ 408 (27)

nzucker ___________________ 96 _ 72 _ 52 _ 220

_________ (-6%) ____________90 _ 68 _ 49 ____ 207 _________ 660 (7)

Maxim ____________________ 38 _ 74 _ 94 ____ 206 _________ 498 (24)

OHWeather ________________ 18 _ 94 _ 94 ____ 206 _________ 614 (17)
blazess556 _________________22 _ 90 _ 92 ____ 204 _________ 618 (16)

Tenman Johnson ____________58 _ 94 _ 46 ____ 198 _________ 602 (20)

Roger Smith ________________38 _ 84 _ 16 ____ 138 _________ 538 (22)

ksammut __________________ 18 _ 54 _ 36 ____ 108 _________ 504 (23)

RodneyS __________________ 00 _ 34 _ 50 _____ 84 _________ 426 (26)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall Contest Table 2,  sum of errors (thru Feb 2, updates in later contest threads)

 

This table takes the data from the original table posted above and converts it to current errors or differences between your forecasts and the totals to date. Errors in red in this table can only increase whereas other errors can only decrease. This table will be maintained until Feb 1-2 snowfall at DEN is confirmed, then

 

... ... further updates will appear in the February forecast contest thread.

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error

 

Tom ____________________22.4" _ 25.6" _ 38.7" ___ 9.2" _ 7.8" _ 0.9" ___ 26.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 136.3

Stebo ___________________18.2" _ 14.8" _ 36.6" __ 10.0" _ 4.7" _ 1.5" ___ 13.2" _ 0.0" _11.0"_____110.0

Rjay ____________________16.2" _ 19.8" _ 47.6" ___ 2.0" _ 1.2" _ 0.0" ___ 31.2" _ 0.0" _10.0" ____ 128.0 (2.0)

OHweather ______________ 16.2" __ 9.8" _ 35.6" ___ 9.0" _ 4.2" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ____ 105.0

Isotherm _________________13.4" _ 10.2"_ 33.2" ___ 0.4" _ 3.2" _ 0.1" ___ 18.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" _____ 83.1

dmillz25 _________________ 7.9" _ 29.7" _ 64.2" __ 12.3" _ 6.4" _ 0.5" ___ 30.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.7" ____ 159.0
Mallow __________________ 7.2" __ 2.8" _ 30.6" ___ 6.0" _ 4.5" _ 0.4" ___ 29.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.2" _____ 84.9

DonSutherland.1 __________ 6.2" __ 4.8" _ 26.1" ___ 3.5" _ 3.6" _ 0.1" ____ 3.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.5" _____ 52.3 (4.8)

wxdude64 ________________3.2" __ 4.5" _ 20.4" ___ 1.6" _10.9" _ 2.1" ___ 28.5" _ 0.0" _ 8.4" _____ 79.6 (4.5)

hudsonvalley21____________ 2.3" __ 6.4" _ 20.7" ___ 5.2" _ 1.6" _ 0.0" ____ 7.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.9" _____ 46.3 (6.4)

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 2.2" __ 6.8" _ 38.6" __ 16.0" _ 4.7" _ 1.9" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ______ 93.0

..

Consensus ________________ 2.0" __ 3.0" _ 28.4" ___ 6.1" _ 3.7" _ 0.5" ___ 19.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" _____ 68.6 (3.0)
..

BKViking _________________ 1.7" _ 10.6" _ 48.1" ___ 3.3" _ 9.7" _ 0.5" ___ 36.7" _ 0.4" _ 5.6" _____ 116.6 (3.3)

Maxim ___________________ 0.2" __ 2.2" _ 24.6" ___ 7.0" _ 2.2" _ 0.5" ___ 21.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.0" ______ 64.9 (2.2)

H2OTown_Wx _____________1.5" __ 1.2" _ 22.8" __ 21.1" _ 9.3" _ 3.3" ____ 5.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.7" ______ 68.1 (1.5)

blazess556 _______________ 1.8" __ 4,2" _ 22.6" ___ 5.0" _ 1.9" _ 0.3" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ______ 59.0 (6.0)

wxallannj _________________ 3.1" __ 4.8" _ 17.1" __ 10.0" _ 1.1" _ 0.0" ____ 9.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.8" ______ 53.1 (7.9)

..

1981-2010 Normals ________ 3.4" __ 1.4" _ 33.4" __ 14.3" _ 2.6" _ 0.1" ___ 15.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.8* ______ 77.0 (4.8)

..

ksammut _________________4.3" __ 6.2" _ 31.6" __ 16.0" _ 0.2" _ 0.0" ___ 20.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ______ 82.5 (10.7)

Tenman Johnson __________ 6.8" _ 11.2" _ 12.6" ___ 3.0" _ 3.7" _ 1.0" ___ 17.2" _ 1.0" _ 8.0" ______ 64.5 (21.0)

Roger Smith ______________ 7.1" __ 8.7" _ 25.1" ___ 6.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ___ 17.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ______ 70.3 (15.8)

SD ______________________7.8" __ 7.2" _ 34.6" __ 13.0" _ 2.7" _ 1.0" ___ 26.2" _ 1.0"_12.0" ______105.5 (15.0)

Damage in Tolland ________ 10.8" _ 11.2" _ 11.6" ___ 6.0" _ 3.7" _ 0.3" ___ 27.2" _ 0.1" _ 4.0" ______ 74.9 (22.0)

RodneyS ________________ 18.7" _ 17.2" __ 0.4" ___ 2.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ____6.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.5" ______ 48.3 (38.6)

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Totals show the current sum of errors and (in brackets) the total errors that are not reducible from here. The difference between the two tells you how many inches of snow can fall in your forecast sites with any margin left (i.e., the non-red numbers).

 

Latest actual snowfalls _____ 18.8" _ 27.2" _ 10.4"__ 22.0" __ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 38.8" _ 0.0" _ 0.0"(tr)

[H2Otown_WX]

January Verification

 

DCA: -1.1

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +3.5

 

ORD: +0.9

ATL: -0.9

IAH: -0.7

 

DEN: +1.1

PHX: -0.7

SEA: +1.7

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, scoring is now final in post 39 (edited today) ... congrats to BKViking in the main contest with wxdude64 and nzucker close behind, and a tie between wxdude64 and snoski14 in the western contest, with Damage in Tolland just behind the leaders.

 

wxdude64 leads overall with BKViking in second and DonSutherland.1 in third.

 

As for the extreme forecast table, which has been very busy through 2014 and 2015, a rather quiet start to 2016. For a month to be listed here, either the most extreme forecast (same sign as anomaly) must win, or the second most extreme forecast must beat that one. So Maxim has a 1-1 record after January with wxallannj at 1-0 (when the extreme wins, no loss is awarded).

 

 

Month __ Loc'n _____ Anomaly _____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ____ W-L decision

 

Jan ___ NYC _________ +1.9 _______ +4.5 Maxim ____ +2.0 wxallannj _____ W wxallannj L Maxim

Jan ___ BOS _________ +3.5 _______ +4.0 Maxim ____ +2.2 _____________ W (Maxim)