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January 2016 temperature forecast contest


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Posting this a bit early to advise regular and new forecasters that there won't be any late penalties until Saturday Jan 2nd at 18z (can't hold them off longer but they won't bite too hard after that either until Monday 4th). So enjoy your new years celebrations without the bother of checking the models and all that (if you can resist the urge) until you're good and ready late on the first or early on the second.

 

With that in mind, the forecasts will be the same as last year, temperature anomalies in F deg against 1981-2010 normal values for these nine locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Deadline and late penalties for January only ...

 

(1) Enter without penalty before 18z Saturday January 2nd.

 

(2) Entries from then until 12z Monday January 4th will receive a 1% late penalty per 3h so that by Sunday 18z you're looking at 8% and by Monday 12z it would be 14%.

 

(3) Late penalties will then increase to 2% for each hour which gives until 07z of 6th for the penalties to reach full score. So basically January 5th is the last day to submit a forecast.

 

Meanwhile, check the December thread for updated scoring estimates that will be finalized some time during the period January 1-3 with some lists of trivia and astounding feats.

 

 

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edit at will and no need to repost, I won't go looking for table material until after the deadline anyway.

 

Hey ksammut, check your entry, I'm wondering about some of those decimals (the ones like .03, are they maybe 0.3?)

 

As for my entry (and I'm going to play this very very safe kids, watch how a 17th place forecaster operates ...)

 

--1.0 __ --1.0 __ --1.2 ___ --0.5 __ --1.0 __ --1.5 ___ --2.0 __ --1.5 __ --2.5

 

radiational cooling, no snow = pray for February to start soon :) out here we manage to make snow from frost, it's no lie, I could make a snowball from the frost in the shade, and it has nothing to do with New Years I think.

 

good luck and happy new year -- all the scores are ready for your enjoyment (if you're not me)

 

let's hope that snowfall contest turns into something cuz right now, it's all about Denver and Chicago.

 

(memo to Seahawks, if you find yourselves on 1 yard line in Super Bowl with 15 seconds to go, run the damn ball okay? Just sayin ...)

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