MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 What's up with long island and south of NYC seeing accumulation lol that's funny Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Coat the grass and I'll be a happy man.. This stretch of weather has really gotten to everyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I have a feeling that high pressure flexes its muscles and the low goes south and drops in pressure. Watch the rain snow line go south with it. I guarantee it A 1035 plus mb high pressure with a weakening LP could help out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 A 1035 plus mb high pressure with a weakening LP could help out This could be an overcorrection by the models or it could be a continued trend. I just don't like the idea of a system driving that far north with a trof coming into the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 As per new England thread, all levels colder on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GFS drops 3-6" of snow/sleet with locally higher amounts for N+W areas, mostly north of Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 This map takes into account sleet a snow, so verbatim most areas that see accumulation N+W of the city are probably 2-4/3-5" with sleet added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The interior still picks up a good deal of sleet on the GFS. Coast sees sleet to a quick transition to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here's a closer view, a lot of this is sleet remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No way am I seeing 4-6 out of that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 No way am I seeing 4-6 out of that lol Those maps don't take into account sleet, it's registered as snow fallen, I would cut any total shown by atleast half IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Hope everyone had a good Christmas, hopefully the next couple days trend in our favor, have a good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Primary low plowing into the upper Midwest, zero blocking frontside or over the top or backside, trough digging into the west coast, it's strictly a New England event. The snowfall maps adjusted for sleet (see NE forum), show nothing until north and northeast of route 84, zip zero stingy with dinero... Edit Candian model agrees, even warmer than 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No way am I seeing 4-6 out of that lol I'd say 2 inches at best for us, because anything more I'd be amazed. Many a changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That map is a hoot. Trim your totals 80% or so and it's a little more representative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Primary low plowing into the upper Midwest, zero blocking frontside or over the top or backside, trough digging into the west coast, it's strictly a New England event. The snowfall maps adjusted for sleet (see NE forum), show nothing until north and northeast of route 84, zip zero stingy with dinero... Edit Candian model agrees, even warmer than 12z... GGEM is similiar to 12z. New England gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 I literally posted those maps with the disclaimer that it takes sleet into account as snow, do we really need every poster to follow up with an account for why the weenie map isn't an accurate depiction? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For clarity, here's a Yonkers(ish) sounding for hour 78, just after precipitation will have begun in earnest. Some places may very well start as sleet and skip the snow altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 what's the point of looking at those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Events that start as sleet here and produce noticeable accumulations of sleet like the GFS tries to show are climatologically extremely rare. My guess is this either ends up as entirely rain or the models are not giving the high enough credit and this will be the usual snow to sleet for a short window and then rain for anyone outside of the northwest valleys. I'm always wary of forecasting events that follow an atypical pattern for a region, a SWFE starting as sleet is extraordniarily rare north of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Events that start as sleet here and produce noticeable accumulations of sleet like the GFS tries to show are climatologically extremely rare. My guess is this either ends up as entirely rain or the models are not giving the high enough credit and this will be the usual snow to sleet for a short window and then rain for anyone outside of the northwest valleys. I'm always wary of forecasting events that follow an atypical pattern for a region, a SWFE starting as sleet is extraordniarily rare north of PHL. NYC has been lucky in the past with these type of events. Sometimes the models don't see the cad signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nice video regarding this storm by joe cioffi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Events that start as sleet here and produce noticeable accumulations of sleet like the GFS tries to show are climatologically extremely rare. My guess is this either ends up as entirely rain or the models are not giving the high enough credit and this will be the usual snow to sleet for a short window and then rain for anyone outside of the northwest valleys. I'm always wary of forecasting events that follow an atypical pattern for a region, a SWFE starting as sleet is extraordniarily rare north of PHL. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Incase anyone was wondering, the 00z Euro was around 1.25" of pure rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Incase anyone was wondering, the 00z Euro was around 1.25" of pure rain. For where though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z GFS is similar to 06z, pretty decent ice event for those of us far enough N+W, major sleet Fest, ending as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z GFS is similar to 06z, pretty decent ice event for those of us far enough N+W, major sleet Fest, ending as rain Mt Holly NWS is going with sleet and freezing rain for the norther tier counties in their zone, over to rain Tuesday afternoon. Seems about right. No real mention of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z GFS is similar to 06z, pretty decent ice event for those of us far enough N+W, major sleet Fest, ending as rain Yes, shows sleet for a brief period, middlessex north. NW burbs hang on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I agree with snowgoose, it would be highly unusual for this to be a SWFE "sleet fest" up here. I think this is rain like the euro shows and areas like Orange County may be in for a very serious icing problem early Tuesday morning, real dangerous travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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