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12/29- 12/30 Storm Potential

UlsterCountySnowZ

By UlsterCountySnowZ,
in New York City Metro

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

The coast might start as snow but go to IP quickly then rain. I could see NYC getting a coating to an inch, Dobbs Ferry getting 1-3", then quickly increasing to the north and east. I'm sitting at 1600' elevation in far northeast PA for this and I still wouldn't bet on more than 3-6" here. SW flow events have a way of being warmer in mid levels and colder at the surface than expected. They also often are faster than expected which could be good since it gives the 1040 high less time to collapse east.

Also, this has been well modeled for a while so people are forgetting it's still an eternity in model time. The action doesn't start till like 108 so we are talking about a Day 5 event. And we know how much can change in 5 days.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

If the high placement is correct then we'll be getting a lot of sleet/freezing rain as low level cold is likely underestimated.

I don't see much if any snow until well N&W. And yes this could easily trend worse but it can also trend a little better.

The Euro has stunk on low level temps on these events the last 2-3 winters. Really all models have outside of Long Island where the change to rain has been easier to come by. But even NYC and LaGuardia have been stubbornly cold on these SWFEs where we've had strong highs to the north

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Latest AFD snippets from Upton and Mt. Holly - I'm guessing I may be just on the wrong side of this one in the Edison area (7 miles from Union County and the Upton CWA), with mostly rain likely, but it looks like accumulating snow isn't too far to my north, so maybe we'll get lucky and at least get a small accumulation before the changeover to rain - it would at least be something.  Sitting by the pool right now outside our hotel a block from the beach in Vero Beach, FL - 76F and a gorgeous sunrise with a high in the low 80s expected - missed the historic warmth back home yesterday, as we're here for the week, but returning Monday afternoon, just in time for the potential wintry precip (most of my family lives down here now, so I get really annoyed when we come here and I miss any snowfalls, lol).  

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED

OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO
SET UP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRENDED COLDER SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH H7-8 TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONG S-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PCPN TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TO
RAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. IF THIS COLD TREND
MAINTAINS...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL AT SEEING THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN SOME COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE A BRIEF COATING OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE WASHING AWAY.
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS ONLY ATTM.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

MONDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH BUILDS OFFSHORE, AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM
TO OUR SOUTH. OVERRRNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE COLD
AIR IN PLACE, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN,
SNOW, AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES, WHILE THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET EVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE DELAWARE VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Latest AFD snippets from Upton and Mt. Holly - I'm guessing I may be just on the wrong side of this one in the Edison area (7 miles from Union County and the Upton CWA), with mostly rain likely, but it looks like accumulating snow isn't too far to my north, so maybe we'll get lucky and at least get a small accumulation before the changeover to rain - it would at least be something.  Sitting by the pool right now outside our hotel a block from the beach in Vero Beach, FL - 76F and a gorgeous sunrise with a high in the low 80s expected - missed the historic warmth back home yesterday, as we're here for the week, but returning Monday afternoon, just in time for the potential wintry precip (most of my family lives down here now, so I get really annoyed when we come here and I miss any snowfalls, lol).  

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED

OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO

SET UP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT

INTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRENDED COLDER SURFACE AND

ALOFT...WITH H7-8 TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTIL

AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONG S-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH

WARM AIR ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A START AS

SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PCPN TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TO

RAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. IF THIS COLD TREND

MAINTAINS...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL AT SEEING THE FIRST

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THE

SOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PD OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN SOME COASTAL AREAS

COULD SEE A BRIEF COATING OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE WASHING AWAY.

CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR

INTERIOR SECTIONS ONLY ATTM.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

MONDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH BUILDS OFFSHORE, AND THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A

WARM FRONT. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM

TO OUR SOUTH. OVERRRNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE COLD

AIR IN PLACE, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE SOME WINTRY

PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS

INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN,

SNOW, AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES, WHILE THERE IS

THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET EVEN AS FAR

SOUTH AS THE DELAWARE VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

Good to see you RU, sorry to hear you are in my least favorite place...FL. God how I hate it there. My parents lived in Hollywood for 20 years and I never went outside due to the heat when I visited. The weather has been so freakish I won't be surprised if we do get something out of this system, we are not far off ( I'm in Colonia ) and after the October snowstorm a few seasons back, nothing would surprise me......seems a little jiggle here or there and we could get a slushy thump before going over to rain. that's the vibe I am getting from some, though rain would be my guess at this point.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted

The coast might start as snow but go to IP quickly then rain. I could see NYC getting a coating to an inch, Dobbs Ferry getting 1-3", then quickly increasing to the north and east. I'm sitting at 1600' elevation in far northeast PA for this and I still wouldn't bet on more than 3-6" here. SW flow events have a way of being warmer in mid levels and colder at the surface than expected. They also often are faster than expected which could be good since it gives the 1040 high less time to collapse east.

Also, this has been well modeled for a while so people are forgetting it's still an eternity in model time. The action doesn't start till like 108 so we are talking about a Day 5 event. And we know how much can change in 5 days.

Agreed I can see 2 inches or so for white plains. I'm going to be in Lake George for this I can see 4 to 8 for them
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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

The euro makes the most sense to me. Whether early or late ,Anthony this is not a system you should be too concerned with being in Brooklyn.

That's if the high leaves quickly. If it doesn't, then it's a different game. NYC has been lucky recently with these type of events.

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Rittenhouse

Rittenhouse

Posted
Posted

That's if the high leaves quickly. If it doesn't, then it's a different game. NYC has been lucky recently with these type of events.

 

Climatology alone will tell you that this will likely be a upper HV/NE type deal. There's a reason why Albany averages over 60" and NYC only averages 25". We got lucky last year.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Wow we agree lol. Anyway I think we see the other models trend to the Euro. This is a strictly north of route 84 storm IMO. Merry Christmas

Same to you. Ray and I had originally liked this from 84 on N and the JP N of the pike .

If this same set up was crashing into a cold dome of air like these did in Feb then I would be more inclined to think the erosion would be slower and the models would get beat

I personally don't think that's the case for the city and coast .

These mid levels usually sneak above 0 on the coast pretty quickly

When the air mass starts out marginal .

So its wagons N for me.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Climatology alone will tell you that this will likely be a upper HV/NE type deal. There's a reason why Albany averages over 60" and NYC only averages 25". We got lucky last year.

Still early in the season to say we got lucky last year. We will get our chances soon. I just would like to see a flake with this storm. Haven't seen any flakes yet.

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nyblizz44

nyblizz44

Posted
Posted

Still early in the season to say we got lucky last year. We will get our chances soon. I just would like to see a flake with this storm. Haven't seen any flakes yet.

Thats the key right here. 30 minutes of mood flakes and I consider this a win for NYC metro and then we await the 1st week of January and see if the step down unfolds as predicted.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

The Euro has stunk on low level temps on these events the last 2-3 winters. Really all models have outside of Long Island where the change to rain has been easier to come by. But even NYC and LaGuardia have been stubbornly cold on these SWFEs where we've had strong highs to the north

Coastal CT seems to do well on swfe as well. Western coastal that is.

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