SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 16 more GFS runs to go. It may very well trend a bit warmer inside 72 hours, more so in the mid-levels than anything else, that is a hallmark of these events. Overall though I'd say the chance of some sort of event is 80% right now. Forecast models always seem to perform better in El Nino winters for some reason. I think we had maybe 1 storm all winter last year where model agreement was this consistent for 3 days this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Alot of frozen precip for nyc on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Can u post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If you look at the GFS closely there is a prominent mid-level warm tongue that pushes all the way into the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Alot of frozen precip for nyc on ggem GEM FTW? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GEM FTW? Lol For Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 For Boston.And the entire HV .... We looking at the same thing?Parts of Putnam, Ulster, orange, and dutchess see just as much as Boston this GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And the entire HV .... We looking at the same thing? Not for me. You're locked in for probably warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Side by side of 2m-t's when the precip is the heaviest on GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not for me. You're locked in for probably warning snows. I would def not say locked in... I like the set-up but it's ALL going to depend on where the high sits, and how quickly it scoots east...this is usually a bust in either direction for us up here... It either dumps, or we see a sleet fest followed by end drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Models are notoriously not warm enough at the mid levels at this range in SWFEs. There are also very often last minute north trends. In State College I remember seeing very promising SWFE events like these with 12"+ of snow advertised 72-84 hours out turn into half that with tons of sleet and freezing rain. I could see it being a decent event not far from NYC and definitely for SNE especially if the high is in a good place and the low redevelops well south of Long Island, but I'd be very careful about buying into these snow maps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The GGEM again shows a sleet fest. Probably an inch or so of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Models are notoriously not warm enough at the mid levels at this range in SWFEs. In State College I remember seeing very promising SWFE events like these with 12"+ of snow advertised 72-84 hours out turn into half that with tons of sleet and freezing rain. I could see it being a decent event not far from NYC and definitely for SNE especially if the high is in a good place and the low redevelops well south of Long Island, but I'd be very careful about buying into these snow maps at this range. On the other end of that argument, especially for those of us with elevation, north of NYC, the CAD is always underestimated, and like I said early those WAA snows come in hard and fast... It's gonna be a close one for the metro without a doubt, but I wouldn't be too worried up here about mid level warmth with this storm if the high stays were its being modeled, usually the warmth pushes through after the majority of damage is done, I fully expect to flip to sleet/rain but not till the storms wrapping up ( with the current modeled set-up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 The GGEM again shows a sleet fest. Probably an inch or so of sleet. Sign me up for the GEM up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This won't be an all snow event up here. I would be shocked if we didn't flip to ip or zr at some point. On the other hand I do think surface temps in the interior will stay below freezing but the big concern is whats going on above 5k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Here is some weenie map entertainment for those N of NYC.. 0z GFS & 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro is loaded with moisture, parts of northern TX see 16-20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Pressures higher over the NE by 84 and the LP is ejecting faster from the south as well Probably a smidge better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro is loaded with moisture, parts of northern TX see 16-20"+ Please continue with PBP.....the New England crew is asleep and I just had to divert my very intrigued 8 yr old from the pile of Santa bounty in front of the fire place....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Low in IL by 96 hours Originally in southern MO on the 12z Hauling over the MW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Looks like its going to be able to go too far north and possibly drag WAA over the area which would severely limit accumulations. Just have to wait a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euros not even close to GFS or GEM, takes the Low too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Correction- 2-4" south of Albany, more north, and 1-3 tops for most of LHV and metro Some of which is probably also sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro kinda sucked this run. Hopefully 12z is better. But honestly it will not be too bad here for the city. 1-3 inches before the change seems legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And there it is to dash our hopes and dreams. But seriously, its still a bit to early to make any definitive calls. My guess at this point is the NYC metro area will see some frozen precip. at least at the onset, how much still remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Have to wait and see if the Euro ensembles agree with the op, the op may be to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If the high placement is correct then we'll be getting a lot of sleet/freezing rain as low level cold is likely underestimated. I don't see much if any snow until well N&W. And yes this could easily trend worse but it can also trend a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 A small snippet from Upton latest update.. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO SETUP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHTINTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER ALOFT...WITH H7-8TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGS-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT.WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND...TO LOWER/MID 30S ALONGTHE COAST AND IN NYC METRO...MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOMEMIXED PCPN LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN BYTUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WARMER AIR ALOFT ISDELAYED...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING THE FIRSTSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THESOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PDOF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. HAVE HIGHLIGHTEDPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR INTERIOR SECTIONSONLY ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If the high placement is correct then we'll be getting a lot of sleet/freezing rain as low level cold is likely underestimated. I don't see much if any snow until well N&W. And yes this could easily trend worse but it can also trend a little better. Agree. I don't see this as snow for the coast. Still early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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