UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z gfs, Canadian, euro all show a 4-6" event for our area up here. Kudos to the Gfs If this actually happens.. Yea GFS has had this since what? Monday/Tuesday I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yea GFS has had this since what? Monday/Tuesday I think 18th or 19th.. I've been posting about this potential for about 4 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Really nice look for NE. We might get some frozen to start but it should quickly turn to a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The HV should do well here but the winners with these are N of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 As of now the GFS bring the heavier snows a bit more south, the GEM, and Euro look almost identical to me, in terms of precip amount , however I don't buy the euro solution just yet cause of its placement of the High, with the CAD, WAA, and high placement where it is, it shouldn't be out of the question to get those longer duration snows further south before a changeover the way the GFS is showing, but then again both are playing catch-up to what the GFS has shown for almost 5 days now... The off hour runs ( 06z/18z) haven't been doing well and keep flopping it, probably get a good idea by Saturday/Sunday's12/00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Jma is even further south than 0z with a low transferring towards delmarva lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'd still like this to come south, has a nice set-up to over perform with the CAD almost ALWAYS being under modeled The warm air will likely be above 850mb, more like 750-800mb, and therefore a lot of that on the southern end is likely sleet. Don't go by the 850mb charts in SWFEs to get the mixing line-it's north of that. Where you are though would likely have a few inches at least. The snow will have to come in very heavy to start for the NYC area to see much before changing over. With a strong high like this, dry air to be overcome is another factor. Pretty typical in SWFEs for I-90 in NY State over to Boston to get crushed, and for it to mostly be a sloppy mix over to rain in NYC. The times where it works out are much less often than vice versa. NYC has to hope for a pretty far south low transfer, and for the warm air to shut off from the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The warm air will likely be above 850mb, more like 750-800mb, and therefore a lot of that on the southern end is likely sleet. Don't go by the 850mb charts in SWFEs to get the mixing line-it's north of that. Where you are though would likely have a few inches at least. The snow will have to come in very heavy to start for the NYC area to see much before changing over. With a strong high like this, dry air to be overcome is another factor. Pretty typical in SWFEs for I-90 in NY State over to Boston to get crushed, and for it to mostly be a sloppy mix over to rain in NYC. The times where it works out are much less often than vice versa. NYC has to hope for a pretty far south low transfer, and for the warm air to shut off from the primary. Probably your best post ever! And I agree 200% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The warm air will likely be above 850mb, more like 750-800mb, and therefore a lot of that on the southern end is likely sleet. Don't go by the 850mb charts in SWFEs to get the mixing line-it's north of that. Where you are though would likely have a few inches at least. The snow will have to come in very heavy to start for the NYC area to see much before changing over. With a strong high like this, dry air to be overcome is another factor. Pretty typical in SWFEs for I-90 in NY State over to Boston to get crushed, and for it to mostly be a sloppy mix over to rain in NYC. The times where it works out are much less often than vice versa. NYC has to hope for a pretty far south low transfer, and for the warm air to shut off from the primary. Excellent post. The warm nose on the ECMWF is prevalent on every sounding I pull for this sub-forum. Some places could escape with the inversion, but the snow growth will definitely suffer. One thing people have to keep in mind with these setups is when you have an inversion like this, its completely possible to have 4-6" of snow forecast, but when the precip starts to fall you either have broken dendrites or sleet mixing in. KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The warm air will likely be above 850mb, more like 750-800mb, and therefore a lot of that on the southern end is likely sleet. Don't go by the 850mb charts in SWFEs to get the mixing line-it's north of that. Where you are though would likely have a few inches at least. The snow will have to come in very heavy to start for the NYC area to see much before changing over. With a strong high like this, dry air to be overcome is another factor. Pretty typical in SWFEs for I-90 in NY State over to Boston to get crushed, and for it to mostly be a sloppy mix over to rain in NYC. The times where it works out are much less often than vice versa. NYC has to hope for a pretty far south low transfer, and for the warm air to shut off from the primary. And the 12z GGEM does show a good deal of sleet (rather than snow) for this area, before it changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z ECM ENS are pretty darn good for this far out. 2" for the city and about 4" in NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z ECM ENS are pretty darn good for this far out. 2" for the city and about 4" in NNJ Some members are likely redeveloping the low further south on the coast. That's what the NYC area would need-the winds have to stay northerly. A stronger high that doesn't want to move could force that re-development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Some members are likely redeveloping the low further south on the coast. That's what the NYC area would need-the winds have to stay northerly. A stronger high that doesn't want to move could force that re-development.That's the only way it works without frontside blocking. Should be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles hold this look tonight. You need secondary surface cyclogenesis on the coastal front to keep the cold high in place and boundary layer winds northerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm always wary of forecasting lengthy periods of sleet in SWFEs. Usually they are snow quickly to sleet then rain. We had that one event last winter that went to sleet very early and stayed sleet for awhile but I think we had nowhere near the high in place we have on the models right now for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 I would not be surprised to see the H dragged west on models over the next few days, take a peak at the 250mb axis... No reason this H can't sit like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 18z GFS brings heavier snows further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The ground is very warm here. My lawns are green. It's going to take heavy snow in order to accumulate. I think 1-3" N&W Max and 2-5" well N&W. Then 90% of th area goes to taint and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Latest discussion: they usually don't even talk about something this early AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 The ground is very warm here. My lawns are green. It's going to take heavy snow in order to accumulate. I think 1-3" N&W Max and 2-5" well N&W. Then 90% of th area goes to taint and then rain. It's gonna be a high of 36 here on Monday and below freezing late Sunday night, the post sandy storm still had leaves on the trees... IMO ground temps are quickly overrun with an hour of decent snow, would only cut down minimally for N+W areas, down there may be a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Gfs is way further south so far and faster with the system out to hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The high is in such a good spot this run...I don't think NYC gets above 32 at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Snow maps have 2-4 for metro area and 4-6 for northern areas...I would assume the 2-4 in the metro area is tainted with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GFS @ 102 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nice thump on the gfs....gfs getting better every run for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 NYC looks to get a couple inches this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 warm ground argument is silly-if it's heavy precip, it's sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still frozen @ 105 ( even for the city ) N and W never get above freezing as this tries to secondary off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That secondary could help enhance the precip and give us 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On this run the 0 line pushes N of the city @108 but it may be a case that the damage will have been done. .5 frozen falls just outside KNYC . If it secondaries quicker you will CAD a little longer. But it's close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Tropical Tidbits GFS snow map FTW Got to say, that setup looks awesome, verbatim 3-6"/4-8" with a couple hour period of sleet/ice/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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