pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The interiors could score big time with storms like this while the coastal plain rains most of the time. I feel that is going to be a pretty common occurrence this winter with the Nino. I remember in 98, we would get huge front end snows (10"+) followed by rain then snow at then end in the mountains of VA. However 95 and east were usually all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 1984... Any other events/years come to mind? Couldn't have happened too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 it reminds me of 1984 and 1990 with snowfalls between super torch's...that's if we get any measurable snow... the late December 90 storm was a big one, a lot of snow and ice here and then back to a super torch for January 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm looking forward to seeing what the euro does with the high this run. 12z GFS is very encouraging. I wonder how many times there's been measurable snow in NYC within a week of 70+*. I'm sure its happened in March but how many tines in D-J-F? It's not so much the Euro moving the high our as it is it is slow ejecting the storm. It could be its bias of holding stuff back in the SW but that usually applies more to AZ and NV not so much to NM and TX so the Euro may be correct but I'm leaning towards no right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 My GEM is always behind, mind sharing? It was fairly bullish last night as well Its not as bullish as it was last night. Everything has ticked north. Which was to be expected anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Never goes over in the HV on the CMC , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 50s and rain incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 50s and rain incoming. Care to elaborate? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 50s and rain incoming.System opens up and isn't amped enough. This is way more likely to trend colder than warmI guess I should further clarify assuming this system ejects out in time it's way more likely to trend colder because the flow doesn't favor this bombing as it heads to the lakes. Obviously if this thing really slows down then the high moves out and its warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 50s and rain incoming. Everything is trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Care to elaborate? Lol Just the overall trend we've seen over the past 9+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just the overall trend we've seen over the past 9+ months.If I wouldn't know better I'd think you're trolling. It might certainly trend that way, but we can fit in a cold day regardless of what the last 9 months were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 These events often have a sharp cutoff within the city, where it'll be raining in lower Manhattan and Brooklyn and snowing in upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Always fascinates me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 50s and rain incoming. For you? Maybe, cause of the heat island in effect. For anyone west? Not to sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 For you? Maybe, cause of the heat island in effect. For anyone west? Not to sure. Yea, I meant the coastal plain (I'm actually down in VA, although it will probably be colder here than in NYC proper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 For you? Maybe, cause of the heat island in effect. For anyone west? Not to sure. In my experience, UHI has little, if any, effect on during snowstorms like this. The pavement can, of course, keep accumulations down, but that's irrelevant for measurements in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I feel that is going to be a pretty common occurrence this winter with the Nino. I remember in 98, we would get huge front end snows (10"+) followed by rain then snow at then end in the mountains of VA. However 95 and east were usually all rain.Surf freak has been saying the same thing for weeks as well. I agree. Having a 55 degree ocean practically in your backyard in late December is not a good sign along the coast. I think it's an inland score with this system. Not to say a well timed/well placed exploding low can't do the trick down here at some point though. The more exciting thing will be to see if we can get a storm (wet or white) to really bomb out and take advantage of these ridiculous water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Surf freak has been saying the same thing for weeks as well. I agree. Having a 55 degree ocean practically in your backyard in late December is not a good sign along the coast. I think it's an inland score with this system. Not to say a well timed/well placed exploding low can't do the trick down here at some point though. The more exciting thing will be to see if we can get a storm (wet or white) to really bomb out and take advantage of these ridiculous water temps. Even with a weak low you can still get snow with a favorable wind direction. It's all about the evolution of this storm, if that high was locked into place over upstate NY instead of sliding east we'd get a nice drain of cold air from the north even if the water temperatures were 70, but I agree that anything with an Eastern component and the coastal plain is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Gefs colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Surf freak has been saying the same thing for weeks as well. I agree. Having a 55 degree ocean practically in your backyard in late December is not a good sign along the coast. I think it's an inland score with this system. Not to say a well timed/well placed exploding low can't do the trick down here at some point though. The more exciting thing will be to see if we can get a storm (wet or white) to really bomb out and take advantage of these ridiculous water temps. SSTs: The Battery: 51.6°F (avg. 43°F) Sandy Hook: 50°F (avg. 43°F) It was 59°F at the Battery during the Halloween storm in 2011. It was 43°F this time last year. Has anyone studied how anomalous SSTs affect snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 SSTs: The Battery: 51.6°F (avg. 43°F) Sandy Hook: 50°F (avg. 43°F) It was 59°F at the Battery during the Halloween storm in 2011. It was 43°F this time last year. Has anyone studied how anomalous SSTs affect snowstorms? They are 55-60 a bit further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Buoy 44065 is at 54 last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The Euro is ejecting the system faster this run. Its a colder run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Probably snow to start for the area on the euro...a lot colder then 00z central PA and areas north of NYC get a good amount of snow verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 High never moves east...parked west of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just the overall trend we've seen over the past 9+ months.12z GFS was colder than both the 00z and 06zThe only model that stepped back a bit was GEM, which was over my cold/snowy last night anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Surf freak has been saying the same thing for weeks as well. I agree. Having a 55 degree ocean practically in your backyard in late December is not a good sign along the coast. I think it's an inland score with this system. Not to say a well timed/well placed exploding low can't do the trick down here at some point though. The more exciting thing will be to see if we can get a storm (wet or white) to really bomb out and take advantage of these ridiculous water temps. My theory is more about marginal airmasses. If we could get some cold air injected and the wind direction is right it's game on. The difference with the Halloween storm was it was so early it had to create its own cold air so the coast was screwed. We are in the heart of winter now so cold air sources are super coldI like what I see could be some $ in the bank for me finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If that high actually stays in that position like the EURO shows, you can bet that there will be some decent accumulations in the burbs. Fingers crossed. Like I said, this will all come down to how fast the system ejects from Texas and if the high can remain in place and anchor in the cold. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'd still like this to come south, has a nice set-up to over perform with the CAD almost ALWAYS being under modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'd still like this to come south, has a nice set-up to over perform with the CAD almost ALWAYS being under modeled 12z gfs, Canadian, euro all show a 4-6" event for our area up here. Kudos to the Gfs If this actually happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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