UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Despite the overrunning rain, N+W areas still see 3-6", more far N, and less south of 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It has frozen precip all the way down to Southern Virginia. You would think the changeover wouldn't be so quick. 41 more GFS runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z GGEM is a lot colder than the GFS and has the freezing line right near NYC. It pops a miller b off the NJ coast. Nasty ice signal for interior NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z GGEM is a lot colder than the GFS and has the freezing line right near NYC. It pops a miller b off the NJ coast. Nasty ice signal for interior NY. Was just posting this, GGEM, looked pretty icy on its 12z run also, and has gotten colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It has frozen precip all the way down to Southern Virginia. You would think the changeover wouldn't be so quick. 41 more GFS runs to go. The GFS never really catches onto how frozen these types of SWFEs will be til inside 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 CAD on the GFS is what makes me think it's underestimating the cold, with WAA snow, it usually starts quick and heavy, and by the time a changeover occurs the majority if not all the accumulative precip has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Where are you guys viewing the GGEM. Tropicaltidbits only has it out to 24 hours. Stormvista is done. NYC is below freezing at 132 hours lol with moderate precip and very heavy precip in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Can we get the 4 inches of snow I predicted for December. That would be pretty amazing... Any mets care to chime in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Can we get the 4 inches of snow I predicted for December. That would be pretty amazing... Any mets care to chime in this? Too early but many past setups nearly identical to the one shown on the 00z models have dropped 3-5 inches in NYC before changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Too early but many past setups nearly identical to the one shown on the 00z models have dropped 3-5 inches in NYC before changing over Agreed, we really need that High to stay in place a little longer tho.... I think inland areas will do well if this scenario plays out, we usually do well in WAA, and the coast needs the high to not slide east so fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GEM is a heavy thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Agreed, we really need that High to stay in place a little longer tho.... I think inland areas will do well if this scenario plays out, we usually do well in WAA, and the coast needs the high to not slide east so fast The low departing out in the Atlantic may be able to slow the high from moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 GEM is an absolute dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Impressive high pressure, looks like a classic front end thump with CAD. Finally, something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Too early but many past setups nearly identical to the one shown on the 00z models have dropped 3-5 inches in NYC before changing over It would be ridiculous to end December with average snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Impressive high pressure, looks like a classic front end thump with CAD. Finally, something to track! Like I said before CAD is almost always underestimated... I think we have a good shot with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It would be ridiculous to end December with average snowfall... December 84 was at the time the warmest December ever and had 6-7 inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Like I said before CAD is almost always underestimated... I think we have a good shot with this one I live in SEPA... don't like my chances much with this one hahaha. But It's a sign of things to come. This pattern flips, we get sustained cold, and tons and tons of moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GEM is an absolute dumping Wxbell maps count sleet with snow and artificially inflate the total. I don't buy a huge dumping like that anywhere near NYC with an advancing ridge with very warm air to override the cold surface air, and a retreating high. There will probably be a good amount of precip because of the strength of the overrunning, and yes, I'd buy a few hour period of snow at the start if the high is in place, but people near the coast are done when the wind shifts away from NE, and inland when the strong overrunning inevitably means a faster advancing sleet line. Warm air aloft is almost always undermodeled at this point too. NYC can pull rabbits from hats once in a while from SWFEs, but these are New England snow producers much more than NYC, because they are deeper into the cold air dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This threat is going to be one of the classic front end ordeals where if the low doesn't track too far north, we'll have a massive time trying to figure out precipitation types. I am pretty impressed with the high pressure though. This has the potential to gives NYC and the boroughs a quick couple of inches before being rained away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Wxbell maps count sleet with snow and artificially inflate the total. I don't buy a huge dumping like that anywhere near NYC with an advancing ridge with very warm air to override the cold surface air, and a retreating high. There will probably be a good amount of precip because of the strength of the overrunning, and yes, I'd buy a few hour period of snow at the start if the high is in place, but people near the coast are done when the wind shifts away from NE, and inland when the strong overrunning inevitably means a faster advancing sleet line. NYC can pull rabbits from hats once in a while from SWFEs, but these are New England snow producers much more than NYC, because they are deeper into the cold air dome. I'm about 80 miles north of NYC, so I'm liking my chances with one specifically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z GEFS is colder than the previous runs. Freezing line is near NYC at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Classic CAD signature for this one. Got to consider the fact that the ground is warm and hopefully the precip moves in at night. I am very happy to track something period. Long ways to go but it looks to be trending colder. By the way how come I've been 5 posted? Edit: these systems always over perform! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You also have to take into account that it's been so warm that even if it does snow in NYC, it would have to snow at a pretty good clip for it to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You also have to take into account that it's been so warm that even if it does snow in NYC, it would have to snow at a pretty good clip for it to stick If the initial cold front ahead of the storm drags further south than shown now (with a high that strong it's a possibility), it would cool the ground ahead of the oncoming precip. As it is, models show a period that's likely below freezing for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 If the initial cold front ahead of the storm drags further south than shown now (with a high that strong it's a possibility), it would cool the ground ahead of the oncoming precip. As it is, models show a period that's likely below freezing for the NYC area. Yea my highs for Monday mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 beware the warm tongue above 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 wheres my $50, look I won't ever mention that fifty under one condition stop the annoying anti snow posts just a bit and cheer for some snow for us weenies. I mean you're a meteorologist and you don't like snow is that even possible? Lets see what the euro shows can't wait! I have a feeling itll show a 4-6 inches event for NYC Forky likes snow but loves warmth. If it trends colder, NYC will see Ice and sleet rather than snow. 850s arent cold enough just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This run of the Euro is going to come in warmer than the GEFS and GGEM. The precip is taking its time to come up . The high is also shifting east. Could be its bias at play or not. Should be interesting to see what the models show in the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.