dmillz25 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We still have 48 hours before the storm arrives. Models tend to under do the cold so I wouldn't be surprised if it starting trending cooler. I wouldn't be surprised if the city starts out with snow sleet mix and then change into all rain. North & west and especially NE will cash in with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We still have 48 hours before the storm arrives. Models tend to under do the cold so I wouldn't be surprised if it starting trending cooler. I wouldn't be surprised if the city starts out with snow sleet mix and then change into all rain. North & west and especially NE will cash in with this event As is, this is the typical half hour to 1 hour of Snow/sleet mix for the city, followed by rain/sleet and then rain. The interior will hold on for an extra 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 As is, this is the typical half hour to 1 hour of Snow/sleet mix for the city, followed by rain/sleet and then rain. The interior will hold on for an extra 2-3 hours. This. Without -epo or blocking it's a quick flip for the coast...plowable event for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ggem? Mostly sleet for everyone, including your area. Coast turns to rain much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Mostly sleet for everyone, including your area. Coast turns to rain much quicker. Yep warm 700mb would do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Euro is about the same as 00z. Maybe a tick better. A coating to an inch for most here with 2-4" into Upstate NY before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Once again the Euro has zero snow south of route 84, nothing, just like all the others. I think we have reached a consensus here. Congratulations New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Once again the Euro has zero snow south of route 84, nothing, just like all the others. I think we have reached a consensus here. Congratulations New England Oh well. I never got too hopeful anyway, especially considering the pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This WSI in-house RPM map (courtesy of Ginxy in the SNE sub) is pretty close to what I'm expecting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This pattern is beginning to change. I really believe we see a strong back loaded winter. Plus the STJ wants to play this year. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I wonder if this storm will be a harbinger of things to come. Given the strong El Nino, I think marginal temps will continue to be a problem for this area even as we enter into a stormier pattern. New England might get hammered again while we just receive a lot of cold rains with some snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I wonder if this storm will be a harbinger of things to come. Given the strong El Nino, I think marginal temps will continue to be a problem for this area even as we enter into a stormier pattern. New England might get hammered again while we just receive a lot of cold rains with some snow on the front end. If we get offshore tracks we won't have to worry about that happening. Southwest flow events aren't too common during El Niño winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Jeez what happened, this was a possible snow event to move. What went wrong for that has probably led us to only seeing rain? Basically, what happened to that big bad cold high that looked really impressive for many runs?It was doomed as a New England event from the get go. No blocking at all, not even a 50/50 low, and a primary parent low driving up into the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Writing was on the wall with this one for a while. As it is, SWFEs usually work against the NYC area and target NY State and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Writing was on the wall with this one for a while. As it is, SWFEs usually work against the NYC area and target NY State and New England. Some snow N of 84 with the JP N of the pike was the early call . Should never have been looked at as a KNYC threat . However I think most didn`t . ( X ANTHONY ) . They just tracked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Some snow N of 84 with the JP N of the pike was the early call . Should never have been looked at as a KNYC threat . However I think most didn`t . ( X ANTHONY ) . They just tracked . Absolutely. Not sure who ever thought this was a NYC storm. Starting of my island and elevated idea well. Though is believe once we get a couple cold shots and the coastal waters to cool we start talking coast snow. Most likely February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Absolutely. Not sure who ever thought this was a NYC storm. Starting of my island and elevated idea well. Though is believe once we get a couple cold shots and the coastal waters to cool we start talking coast snow. Most likely February I definitely thought it had potential to be a 3-4 inch deal over to rain but the air mass in place ahead of it really isn't here for long so the mid levels just aren't that cold at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I definitely thought it had potential to be a 3-4 inch deal over to rain but the air mass in place ahead of it really isn't here for long so the mid levels just aren't that cold at the start Yeah I hear ya. Obviously I meant to say inland and elivated. But this setup was never meant for the coast. At least the ski resorts will get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah I hear ya. Obviously I meant to say inland and elivated. But this setup was never meant for the coast. At least the ski resorts will get some snow at least somewhere on the east coast is getting snow.. Way to green especially in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 First shot of the RGEM coming into range, albeit not its good range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS moved south. Nice snow a little north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS moved south. Nice snow a little north of the city. Nothing has changed... For up here it shows about 2" of snow and alot of sleet ending as some lgt rain/drizzle. The warm layer is between 700-850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I just wish that the high stayed put so the City would have a chance of some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I just wish that the high stayed put so the City would have a chance of some snow. Cheer up, kiddo. Still 2 months to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Absolutely. Not sure who ever thought this was a NYC storm. Starting of my island and elevated idea well. Though is believe once we get a couple cold shots and the coastal waters to cool we start talking coast snow. Most likely February Yeah October waters really help snow chances.....Atfer the past 7 or 8 years, throw climo out the window. If you want to argue, look at the books. If there's a possibility to thread the needle, that needle may very well be thread. Low and especially mid level cold may hold on long enough for a decent sleet event. The book isn't quite written although a rain event for the vast majority of us is in order. Northern folk, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah October waters really help snow chances.....Atfer the past 7 or 8 years, throw climo out the window. If you want to argue, look at the books. If there's a possibility to thread the needle, that needle may very well be thread. Low and especially mid level cold may hold on long enough for a decent sleet event. The book isn't quite written although a rain event for the vast majority of us is in order. Northern folk, enjoy.agreed I love snow but I'm focusing on January which will show improved pattern changes by Jan 20 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 6z GFS is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z Rgem has a very good amount of sleet. Even for the coast and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z Rgem has a very good amount of sleet. Even for the coast and NYC. The RGEM so far has done well out in the SRN plains. It was the only model changing OKC over this morning most had them not going over til tonight. It's a bit too far in its range for here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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