UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Figured this is the first snow event that's showing up on multiple models within 7 days, and deserves its own thread. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Are we looking at the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Are we looking at the same model? You are, just a different timeframe:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 That's nearly 2 days after the time Frame I posted.. Strong comes in early Tuesday and gets out early wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS vs EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro is colder than the 0z run with a stronger high to the north. City gets mostly rain but it's close for the City also. The interior areas and SNE northward get a lot of ice/sleet and the further north you go, the more snow you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That's nearly 2 days after the time Frame I posted.. Strong comes in early Tuesday and gets out early wed The cold will inevitably arrive but storm windows being pushed back is not my thang. Unless the Euro is correcting to the GFS, not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro is colder than the 0z run with a stronger high to the north. City gets mostly rain but it's close for the City also. The interior areas and SNE northward get a lot of ice/sleet and the further north you go, the more snow you get. Gotta keep an eye on the high, euro seems more realistic at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Texas panhandle and Oklahoma make out like bandits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 The cold will inevitably arrive but storm windows being pushed back is not my thang. Unless the Euro is correcting to the GFS, not sure yet. Well GFS has showed this storm for a couple days now.. Euro had nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Gotta keep an eye on the high, euro seems more realistic at this point I think there will be more waffling ( good or bad ) Texas panhandle and Oklahoma make out like bandits. Congrats to them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 we almost always need a -nao or a strong -epo to get good snow from a SWFE... otherwise the confluence lifts out as the storm approaches and we get the mid level warmth floodgates. maybe an inch at the start followed by a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 we almost always need a -nao or a strong -epo to get good snow from a SWFE... otherwise the confluence lifts out as the storm approaches and we get the mid level warmth floodgates. maybe an inch at the start followed by a sleetfestThis is a New England event IMO for that exact reason. Besides the teleconnections you mentioned, the PNA and AO are also in the wrong phases, not to mention no 50-50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 we almost always need a -nao or a strong -epo to get good snow from a SWFE... otherwise the confluence lifts out as the storm approaches and we get the mid level warmth floodgates. maybe an inch at the start followed by a sleetfest These events often overperform though. The models have always difficulty with the changeover, even within hours of onset. The NAO is forecasted to be neutral. If the timing is right, a widespread 1-3" is easily doable. The biggest issue IMO will be the warm SSTs. Coastal locations are going to changeover quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If Central Park records any measurable snow this month, that will be quite the accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If Central Park records any measurable snow this month, that will be quite the accomplishment. +11 monthly departure with 1.5 of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think there's quite a ways to go before the city/coast or even interior NJ needs to worry about anything other than rain at this point. I'm one hundred percent in the "Let's get some snow before 2016" camp; but at this juncture, let's watch the trends and enjoy tracking some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Off hour gfs says NO to this storm. It holds the energy back resulting in a typical cutter solution that screws a huge chunk of New England as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 more 60's? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Off hour gfs says NO to this storm. It holds the energy back resulting in a typical cutter solution that screws a huge chunk of New England as well.There is no blocking for this thing, none, no Atlantic blocking, no arctic blocking, no pacific blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 There is no blocking for this thing, none, no Atlantic blocking, no arctic blocking, no pacific blocking It is all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's all good if your gonna post the models that show no storm, but be consistent and also discuss the ones that DO show the storm, it's gotten a little out of hand with the people that are clearly trolling for no storms and warm winter, just be consistent atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I don't trust the 6&18z gfs runs. I'd wait till 0z before anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Off hour gfs says NO to this storm. It holds the energy back resulting in a typical cutter solution that screws a huge chunk of New England as well. This is a fairly innacurate statement, 18z GFS is closer to the euro solution... Drops 2-4" N+W of NYC, and between 10-18" in upstate NY and parts of NE... Saying NO storm is pretty misleading since not everyone lives in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This is a fairly innacurate statement, 18z GFS is closer to the euro solution... Drops 2-4" N+W of NYC, and between 10-18" in upstate NY and parts of NE... Saying NO storm is pretty misleading since not everyone lives in the city Ehhhhhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ehhhhhh... I'll recant... 2-4" far N+W, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'll recant... 2-4" far N+W, Yeah, if you get far enough north it's pretty intriguing, but that run was thoroughly uninspiring for anyone south of I-90. A few gloopy flakes followed by foggy rainshowers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Some of you are asking the atmosphere to turn on a dime . You have an anamoulous late Dec warm air mass in place , an initial surface feature coming out the panhandle heading to the lakes with zero blocking. You flood the mid levels in a flash even if the 0 line sags south for a bit . It would rocket back N . A 1040 high arriving at the same time is really a help to C AND NNE not here. I think the HV could see some snow on the front end , but you want to be N of the pike with these set ups , and sometimes that's not enough. It's not a case of WAA there's 50s and 60s in front of this. I don't if think this trends S and I wouldn't buy a 7 day OP run or 2 with in the middle of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's all good if your gonna post the models that show no storm, but be consistent and also discuss the ones that DO show the storm, it's gotten a little out of hand with the people that are clearly trolling for no storms and warm winter, just be consistent atleast To be fair no model really shows much if you're looking at frozen precip until you go well N&W and towards SNE. We would have to get perfect timing for this storm to work because all indices are a no-go. It's still worth watching because what else is there honestly, and I'm sure they'll be plenty more flip flops to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z GFS looks more like 12z however after the initial wave of snow, the changeover is to all rain, and heavy.... Would probably be a dusting or so at best followed by a cold rain... Low makes it all the way up to the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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