Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I hope you don't view me as one. Not my intention here at all. There's a time to poke and have fun there's also a time to discuss and learn...I'm of the latter at the moment.not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 oh it's the angry Monday morning QB chiming in. How's that total whiff 36 hrs prior making out. That was made 4 weeks ago for fun,you were very very angry Thursday when it appeared to you,you would get shutout. Hope everything is OK with you, I worry.Why did you think I was talking about you? Lord have mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Why did you think I was talking about you? Lord have mercyfigured a good friend who has read an 8 week forecast issued Jan 1 that said thisW/E 1/30 The Jan thaw makes a brief entrance fr 2-3 days with mild 40s a cutter and then zonal flow then a cold front issues in normal temps + 2, +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ray did and he has balls with these Monday Am qbs lurking He did, and I think his approach is good. But he also hears it just about every day about his snowfall forecast. Nobody cares about his overall seasonal breakdown if the white stuff doesn't cover their deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 He did, and I think his approach is good. But he also hears it just about every day about his snowfall forecast. Nobody cares about his overall seasonal breakdown if the white stuff doesn't cover their deck. true dat. Still hope the Nino jet shows up ,up here pretty dry. That was a big concern for me this winter. Exit stage right in a hurry even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 He did, and I think his approach is good. But he also hears it just about every day about his snowfall forecast. Nobody cares about his overall seasonal breakdown if the white stuff doesn't cover their deck. Absolutely correct and very fair. No argument. I am busting on snowfall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I hope you don't view me as one. Not my intention here at all. There's a time to poke and have fun there's also a time to discuss and learn...I'm of the latter at the moment. You've improved by leaps and bounds this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You've improved by leaps and bounds this season. Damn. I didn't think anyone was paying attention. Im average atm at best which means, based on your obs, I was foking awful before. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time. The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak. I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Are you really banned? For what? Are you counting cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Are you really banned? For what? Are you counting cards?they made a movie about him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 With Kevin spacey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time. The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak. I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino. you should be extremely rich and retired with your statistical knowledge. Untapped potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time. The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak. I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino. 'Cmon, Will.....there is something to be said for putting the calculator down and just having fun....hedging based upon a knowledge of climo. No one is going to kill my family if I miss. Its fine that you have no interest, which is fine, but I also think it is fine for people to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Damn. I didn't think anyone was paying attention. Im average atm at best which means, based on your obs, I was foking awful before. Smh. Only you could turn that into an insult. Hey, average in this place is pretty damn good....we have people counting cards and shutting casinos down. You are far above average in relation to the general populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I love the LR seasonal stuff pros and hobbyists put out. Would like to see more mets on here do it, for just experimental fun if nothing more. But I know why they dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I love the LR seasonal stuff pros and hobbyists put out. Would like to see more mets on here do it, for just experimental fun if nothing more. But I know why they dont. I'm fine with them now wanting to do it, but I just don't agree with essentially telling those who do that it is a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Heh card counting is probably an easier way to make money than weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Alot of us "waste" time tracking systems fighting over inches. Difference with seasonal forecasting is that it's on a larger scale but is it that much different? One is essentially saying their seasonal snowfall prediction for bos is 40-50" while the other is forecasting 6-10" for a specific storm. There's probabilities in both based on numerous information at their disposal. Granted the seasonal guy has a much higher variance or degree of difficulty. But I don't see why that should prevent him or her from having a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'm fine with them now wanting to do it, but I just don't agree with essentially telling those who do that it is a waste of time. I just told you I commend those who try. Even if I don't think there's much skill involved in the snowfall forecasts. There's plenty of other aspects to learn by trying...like pattern recognition and such and of course temps do have some mild skill at 3 months lead if you can become good at it. If putting out a seasonal forecast increases one's own interest, then that is enough reason in itself. Someones you fail to read the entire post through before responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 you should be extremely rich and retired with your statistical knowledge. Untapped potential. What do you think I'm doing working with mutual funds and the stock market? But back to wx forecasting, we all use probabilities every single time we talk about a storm or give a forecast even if we don't really know it or are not intentionally putting forth probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I just told you I commend those who try. Even if I don't think there's much skill involved in the snowfall forecasts. There's plenty of other aspects to learn by trying...like pattern recognition and such and of course temps do have some mild skill at 3 months lead if you can become good at it. If putting out a seasonal forecast increases one's own interest, then that is enough reason in itself. Someones you fail to read the entire post through before responding. Yes, sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 What do you think I'm doing working with mutual funds and the stock ?. Right now? Killing my 401 k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I read an 8 week forecast that is calling for the first 7 days of Feb to be stormiest of the winter eith Arctic chilldude could be an excellent source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Finals at the big 4: BOS: +3.5 BDL: +4.1 ORH: +3.1 PVD: +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Finals at the big 4: BOS: +3.5 BDL: +4.1 ORH: +3.1 PVD: +3.0 Appropriate thread title wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Pretty nasty cold on Monday...but cheap midnight high probably will make the departures less impressive than otherwise would be. What kind of numbers are we talking ... getting into the low/mid 20's maybe? Certainly looks very cold with temps around the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 What kind of numbers are we talking ... getting into the low/mid 20's maybe? Certainly looks very cold with temps around the dews. Asking about a post from January? Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Asking about a post from January? Drunk? lol wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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