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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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oh it's the angry Monday morning QB chiming in. How's that total whiff 36 hrs prior making out. That was made 4 weeks ago for fun,you were very very angry Thursday when it appeared to you,you would get shutout. Hope everything is OK with you, I worry.

Why did you think I was talking about you? Lord have mercy
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He did, and I think his approach is good.

But he also hears it just about every day about his snowfall forecast. Nobody cares about his overall seasonal breakdown if the white stuff doesn't cover their deck.

true dat. Still hope the Nino jet shows up ,up here pretty dry. That was a big concern for me this winter. Exit stage right in a hurry even
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He did, and I think his approach is good.

 

But he also hears it just about every day about his snowfall forecast. Nobody cares about his overall seasonal breakdown if the white stuff doesn't cover their deck.

Absolutely correct and very fair.

No argument.

 

I am busting on snowfall right now.

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I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time.

 

The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak.

 

 

I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino.

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I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time.

The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak.

I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino.

you should be extremely rich and retired with your statistical knowledge. Untapped potential.
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I could have "balls" and put out a forecast every year...but aside from never predicting snowfall outside of the middle 75% of climo, there's nothing really to say about it in terms of accuracy. It is almost impossible to forecast 85" vs 61" at ORH since you're talking nuances in the pattern that are not forecastable at that lead time.

 

The only thing I could tell you is that 61" is more likely to be closer to the result than 85" since it is slightly closer to ORH's mean and median snowfall. That doesn't mean I don't commend the efforts for those who do put them out. But I also think the "if you don't put one out, you shouldn't criticize" mentality is really weak.

 

 

I could never tell you if I was going to get a blackjack at Foxwoods on any given hand, but I bet more money when they became more likely and walked away from the table when they became less likely...I did this too many times and was banned from the casino.

'Cmon, Will.....there is something to be said for putting the calculator down and just having fun....hedging based upon a knowledge of climo.

No one is going to kill my family if I miss.

Its fine that you have no interest, which is fine, but I also think it is fine for people to try.

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Damn. I didn't think anyone was paying attention. Im average atm at best which means, based on your obs, I was foking awful before. Smh.

:lol: Only you could turn that into an insult. 

Hey, average in this place is pretty damn good....we have people counting cards and shutting casinos down.

 

You are far above average in relation to the general populous.

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I love the LR seasonal stuff pros and hobbyists put out. Would like to see more mets on here do it, for just experimental fun if nothing more. But I know why they dont.

I'm fine with them now wanting to do it, but I just don't agree with essentially telling those who do that it is a waste of time.

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Alot of us "waste" time tracking systems fighting over inches. Difference with seasonal forecasting is that it's on a larger scale but is it that much different? One is essentially saying their seasonal snowfall prediction for bos is 40-50" while the other is forecasting 6-10" for a specific storm. There's probabilities in both based on numerous information at their disposal. Granted the seasonal guy has a much higher variance or degree of difficulty. But I don't see why that should prevent him or her from having a go.

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I'm fine with them now wanting to do it, but I just don't agree with essentially telling those who do that it is a waste of time.

 

I just told you I commend those who try. Even if I don't think there's much skill involved in the snowfall forecasts. There's plenty of other aspects to learn by trying...like pattern recognition and such and of course temps do have some mild skill at 3 months lead if you can become good at it. If putting out a seasonal forecast increases one's own interest, then that is enough reason in itself.

 

 

Someones you fail to read the entire post through before responding.

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you should be extremely rich and retired with your statistical knowledge. Untapped potential.

 

What do you think I'm doing working with mutual funds and the stock market? :lol:

 

 

But back to wx forecasting, we all use probabilities every single time we talk about a storm or give a forecast even if we don't really know it or are not intentionally putting forth probabilities.

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I just told you I commend those who try. Even if I don't think there's much skill involved in the snowfall forecasts. There's plenty of other aspects to learn by trying...like pattern recognition and such and of course temps do have some mild skill at 3 months lead if you can become good at it. If putting out a seasonal forecast increases one's own interest, then that is enough reason in itself.

 

 

Someones you fail to read the entire post through before responding.

Yes, sorry about that.

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