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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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He is, but he's saying if it happens it'll happen and there is no skill in predicting it at long ranges.

Yes, when he was presented with an argument that we are unlikely to reach climo snowfall for the season.

Yet as runnaway points out, he does his own two month forecasts every winter where he specifically forecasts when he thinks a snowstorm will occur. So it's a silly debate.

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Yes, when he was presented with an argument that we are unlikely to reach climo snowfall for the season.

Yet as runnaway points out, he does his own two month forecasts every winter where he specifically forecasts when he thinks a snowstorm will occur. So it's a silly debate.

what's does that have to do with statistics
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It's a serious question, no stir up here. Ginx was discussing his points before which I was understanding his side, don't agree with it but I can see what he's trying to discuss. Then I remembered his LR weekly forecasts and thought how does one arrive at that....thats all.

it's a complex mix which I keep to myself. I don't wish peer review or debunking. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes not so much. I lay it out.I have been around these parts for over a decade yet have never seen many who have argued about the value of probabilistic forecasting ever lay out a detailed LR forecast.
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volcanic eruptions on an 8 week scale? Now you are getting silly.

Dood I'm not joking around. I don't know crap beyond d7 model printing out qpf. I post to have fun, learn, and interact with fellow weather nerds. I read your 8 week forecasts and I like them. I think one would have to factor in probabilities to come to such conclusions but if you don't then just wondering what factors come in play.

Ok if you don't want to share, I get it.

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Dood I'm not joking around. I don't know crap beyond d7 model printing out qpf. I post to have fun, learn, and interact with fellow weather nerds. I read your 8 week forecasts and I like them. I think one would have to factor in probabilities to come to such conclusions but if you don't then just wondering what factors come in play.

Ok if you don't want to share, I get it.

I just laughed at the Volcanic stuff. Basically I take a year's worth of stats,which I hate, and make probability charts, lol just kidding. It's more about where we have been. I will share that.
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I just laughed at the Volcanic stuff. Basically I take a year's worth of stats,which I hate, and make probability charts, lol just kidding. It's more about where we have been. I will share that.

Oh. See I don't know the science behind all this but I do know the atmosphere is complex and yet, delicate at the same time. One thing here can lead to a chain reaction there, If that makes sense. Which is why I brought up volcanic eruptions.

But I'll just stick to watching the latest d7 guidance loop of h5 and how that results in qpf printout, and leave the science talk to the big boys.

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it's a complex mix which I keep to myself. I don't wish peer review or debunking. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes not so much. I lay it out.I have been around these parts for over a decade yet have never seen many who have argued about the value of probabilistic forecasting ever lay out a detailed LR forecast.

 

My world is focused on the first 7 days, so that's where I spend most my time.

 

Even if I don't have something more pressing in the first 7 days, I don't worry too much beyond that because eventually a 15 day prog will become a day 7 prog. Plus there are plenty of others around here who are much more well versed in long range patterns than I.

 

I do think you're also tipping your hand as to why some don't post long range forecasts much here. People want details, and long range forecasting doesn't lend itself to detailed forecasts.

 

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I read an 8 week forecast that is calling for the first 7 days of Feb to be coldest of the winter

oh it's the angry Monday morning QB chiming in. How's that total whiff 36 hrs prior making out. That was made 4 weeks ago for fun,you were very very angry Thursday when it appeared to you,you would get shutout. Hope everything is OK with you, I worry.
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My world is focused on the first 7 days, so that's where I spend most my time.

Even if I don't have something more pressing in the first 7 days, I don't worry too much beyond that because eventually a 15 day prog will become a day 7 prog. Plus there are plenty of others around here who are much more well versed in long range patterns than I.

I do think you're also tipping your hand as to why some don't post long range forecasts much here. People want details, and long range forecasting doesn't lend itself to detailed forecasts.

Ray did and he has balls with these Monday Am qbs lurking
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I have an opinion, they are like bung holes everyone has one. Not convinced anyone can predict with 85% accuracy that says Boston will end up below climo. If they do,lay it out

a

Where did 85 come from? If it were 85, it's because of previous years with similar setups. See I think that you think we take them verbatim. I see that and say that it's an uphill battle. Nobody is referring that specific number. What's the problem?

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