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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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None of the ensembles look very good either.  And I suspect 18z will look worse.  We're basically 5 days out from the potential storm development.  That's not a lot of time for a huge needed improvement.  I'm not giving up hope just saying it looks pretty bleak right now.

Euro Ens have nice signal..This year they have led the way

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Forget it--this winter's done.  The good news is that its' only 336 days until next winter's solstice.  It has to be better than this pos.

I completely agree with you. This winter has easily been the "worse" winter that I have experienced in the Merrimack Valley area of Massachusetts.  I wrote this winter off months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. Hopefully 16 - 17 will be better

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I completely agree with you. This winter has easily been the "worse" winter that I have experienced in the Merrimack Valley area of Massachusetts.  I wrote this winter off months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. Hopefully 16 - 17 will be better

So far.

We are only half way through.

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The OP GFS looks pretty bleak.  Hopefully it's really far off beyond day 5.

 

ALB is still waiting to kick off the snow season.  They've had an inch or so of sleet and then a few lake effect snow squalls.  Fortunately I picked up a few inches of heavy wet stuff in the Taconic hills last weekend, which is still OTG.  Growing up in SENY it always seemed to me like ALB and BGM were very snowy places.  Climate change.

 

A big chunk of the I-95 corridor will be ahead of Mt. Snow, Stratton, and maybe even Killington in seasonal snowfall by the end of the day.  Has that ever been the case on Feb 1?

I have no historical records to go by but I have a friend who has been in Wilmington VT (just S of Stratton / Mt Snow ) since 2003 and this has been the worst January he has seen. Now that also coincides , with what has been a bad 10+ year stretch in W NE / S VT so maybe it's a regime change or maybe just a bad stretch and the elastic will snap the other way.

My non-scientific opinion is that maybe W NE has entered a period of drier winters that will eventually resolve itself but weather patterns are probably measured in decades not years.

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I'll be stunned if we make it out of this year without one...just hope its not a strictly elevation event.

 

I do fine in most of those, but Dec '96 would blow.

 

We're so due for one of those. I feel like it would coincide on either side of our little mild up in early feb if it were to happen in the near future.

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FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER

COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER GULF

COAST LIFTS NE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME LARGER SCALE FLOW FAVORS AN

OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF SNOW TO CAPE COD

AND ISLANDS...BUT AS WE KNOW THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGES IN

NEXT FEW DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MODELS TREND CLOSER TO COAST

OR REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

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FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE.

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER

COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER GULF

COAST LIFTS NE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME LARGER SCALE FLOW FAVORS AN

OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF SNOW TO CAPE COD

AND ISLANDS...BUT AS WE KNOW THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGES IN

NEXT FEW DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MODELS TREND CLOSER TO COAST

OR REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

 

Great...just great.another quite week.....

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