Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 None of the ensembles look very good either. And I suspect 18z will look worse. We're basically 5 days out from the potential storm development. That's not a lot of time for a huge needed improvement. I'm not giving up hope just saying it looks pretty bleak right now. Euro Ens have nice signal..This year they have led the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Forget it--this winter's done. The good news is that its' only 336 days until next winter's solstice. It has to be better than this pos. I completely agree with you. This winter has easily been the "worse" winter that I have experienced in the Merrimack Valley area of Massachusetts. I wrote this winter off months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. Hopefully 16 - 17 will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 BOX has no mention of coastal storm next 28-29th. Was the signal that weak on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 BOX has no mention of coastal storm next 28-29th. Was the signal that weak on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 BOX has no mention of coastal storm next 28-29th. Was the signal that weak on the EPS? Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I completely agree with you. This winter has easily been the "worse" winter that I have experienced in the Merrimack Valley area of Massachusetts. I wrote this winter off months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. Hopefully 16 - 17 will be better So far. We are only half way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 HehYou like the look? Or just heh it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 You like the look? Or just heh it? If you said 994 at the benchmark I'd say it's a good look. It's just a lot of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Don't look now, but pretty nasty clustering on the BM at day 6 on the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 This looks like more of an interior threat, rife with precip type issues near the coast by the look of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 The OP GFS looks pretty bleak. Hopefully it's really far off beyond day 5. ALB is still waiting to kick off the snow season. They've had an inch or so of sleet and then a few lake effect snow squalls. Fortunately I picked up a few inches of heavy wet stuff in the Taconic hills last weekend, which is still OTG. Growing up in SENY it always seemed to me like ALB and BGM were very snowy places. Climate change. A big chunk of the I-95 corridor will be ahead of Mt. Snow, Stratton, and maybe even Killington in seasonal snowfall by the end of the day. Has that ever been the case on Feb 1? I have no historical records to go by but I have a friend who has been in Wilmington VT (just S of Stratton / Mt Snow ) since 2003 and this has been the worst January he has seen. Now that also coincides , with what has been a bad 10+ year stretch in W NE / S VT so maybe it's a regime change or maybe just a bad stretch and the elastic will snap the other way. My non-scientific opinion is that maybe W NE has entered a period of drier winters that will eventually resolve itself but weather patterns are probably measured in decades not years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 This looks like more of an interior threat, rife with precip type issues near the coast by the look of Canada. We will take our chances with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 We will take our chances with that Absolutely. I'm done with sugar drifts and oes crack cocaine line streamers at the shore....scooter just snorts it right off of the ocean and steals snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 This looks like more of an interior threat, rife with precip type issues near the coast by the look of Canada.oddly the Ens you quoted show the.opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 oddly the Ens you quoted show the.opposite There is low pressure all over Canada. I get what the verbatim track implies.....not the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Absolutely. I'm done with sugar drifts and oes crack cocaine line streamers at the shore....scooter just snorts it right off of the ocean and steals snow. Give me big qpf and the risk of taint because if it rips we stack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Give me big qpf and the risk of taint because if it rips we stack. I'm not whining....I'm fine over this miss. I'd just like a cement-bomb...when it actually helps to be on the poleward side of 128 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 There is low pressure all over Canada. I get what the verbatim track implies.....not the point. not the track the ens individual snow precipitation members. There is a HP in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 not the track the ens individual snow precipitation members. There is a HP in Maine I don't see the high. PM me the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Heavily heavily dissaprove of an interior cement bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Heavily heavily dissaprove of an interior cement bomb I'll be stunned if we make it out of this year without one...just hope its not a strictly elevation event. I do fine in most of those, but Dec '96 would blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'll be stunned if we make it out of this year without one...just hope its not a strictly elevation event. I do fine in most of those, but Dec '96 would blow. We're so due for one of those. I feel like it would coincide on either side of our little mild up in early feb if it were to happen in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 We're so due for one of those. I feel like it would coincide on either side of our little mild up in early feb if it were to happen in the near future. You end with 6-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 You end with 6-7"? I would guess a bit less than that, maybe closer to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I don't see the high. PM me the image. heavy heavy transient block, thats a sweet look today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I don't like this set up right now....need big changes. Low pressure all over Canada, but what is the largest issue is that the PNA ridge is just decimated by a PAC system. Probably going to be waiting until February....as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Right now op runs are a Cape scraper. Lots of spread on Euro Ens. Can we trend west again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER GULF COAST LIFTS NE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME LARGER SCALE FLOW FAVORS AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF SNOW TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...BUT AS WE KNOW THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGES IN NEXT FEW DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MODELS TREND CLOSER TO COAST OR REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER GULF COAST LIFTS NE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME LARGER SCALE FLOW FAVORS AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF SNOW TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...BUT AS WE KNOW THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CHANGES IN NEXT FEW DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MODELS TREND CLOSER TO COAST OR REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. Great...just great.another quite week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Still need to watch that storm. It won't take much to bring us closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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