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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Contrary to belief, this winter, this storm,it's not all about you and your forecast.

Nice side step.

Ok, "the" blizzard.

 

The point being that just because an extended range outlook doesn't have a storm at any given time doesn't necessarily mean that the outlook is bleak.

 

That was strongly worded.....I'll try to tone that down.

Didn't mean it that way.

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The OP GFS looks pretty bleak.  Hopefully it's really far off beyond day 5.

 

ALB is still waiting to kick off the snow season.  They've had an inch or so of sleet and then a few lake effect snow squalls.  Fortunately I picked up a few inches of heavy wet stuff in the Taconic hills last weekend, which is still OTG.  Growing up in SENY it always seemed to me like ALB and BGM were very snowy places.  Climate change.

 

A big chunk of the I-95 corridor will be ahead of Mt. Snow, Stratton, and maybe even Killington in seasonal snowfall by the end of the day.  Has that ever been the case on Feb 1?

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The OP GFS looks pretty bleak.  Hopefully it's really far off beyond day 5.

 

ALB is still waiting to kick off the snow season.  They've had an inch or so of sleet and then a few lake effect snow squalls.  Fortunately I picked up a few inches of heavy wet stuff in the Taconic hills last weekend, which is still OTG.  Growing up in SENY it always seemed to me like ALB and BGM were very snowy places.  Climate change.

 

A big chunk of the I-95 corridor will be ahead of Mt. Snow, Stratton, and maybe even Killington in seasonal snowfall by the end of the day.  Has that ever been the case on Feb 1?

Use ensembles..not op runs

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Use ensembles..not op runs

None of the ensembles look very good either.  And I suspect 18z will look worse.  We're basically 5 days out from the potential storm development.  That's not a lot of time for a huge needed improvement.  I'm not giving up hope just saying it looks pretty bleak right now.

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