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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Allmelt played the monthly temp claim, saying temps mattered. I did the same and showed how monthly temps don't necessarily matter. And not only that, the "snowy week" occurred in a still + regime in a time of climo still dropping.

 

Boy, might be time to start a February pattern thread before someone gets hurt in here.

 

But it's pretty easy when you boil it down. If I offered you positive QPF anomalies or negative temp anomalies and the rest was left up to chance, which would you take? It has to be QPF every time, because chances are you'll usually be cold enough during winter.

 

A pattern with good QPF can't guarantee temps, but a pattern with good temps can't guarantee there is QPF or that the temps when QPF falls are good for snow.

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Not to be a downer, but I think based on the "thaw" talk and the consistency of poorly modeled storms, those who love winter weather should pack their things, hold onto the memories of the last 2 winters, and start to make plans for next season. Not saying we wont get snow, but at this point I think I'm going to let whatever we DO get be a surprise and start to embrace the benign nature of this winter's evolution. 

 

Would love any mets to supply some science that backs/negates my hunch - as of now this post is fluff merely hoping to create a meteorological discussion. 

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Not to be a downer, but I think based on the "thaw" talk and the consistency of poorly modeled storms, those who love winter weather should pack their things, hold onto the memories of the last 2 winters, and start to make plans for next season. Not saying we wont get snow, but at this point I think I'm going to let whatever we DO get be a surprise and start to embrace the benign nature of this winter's evolution.

Would love any mets to supply some science that backs/negates my hunch - as of now this post is fluff merely hoping to create a meteorological discussion.

It's really just a weenie meltdown post and adding at the end that it is trying to start a meteorological discussion doesn't change that. Mets have shared their thoughts in this thread. It's a volatile pattern, relaxation is likely, Feb is uncertain but we can sometimes get away with a pattern that further south couldn't anyway. Some mets have expressed less concern for the interior like ALB than for the coast.

Maybe we need a meltdown thread so people can vent their frustrations at the bad first half of winter and anxieties about the upcoming uncertainty.

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how many inches did you get this week on the Mt anyways with tenths, over a foot from what I was told. Cold is your friend

Haha that's why I said duck and run. Give me -10C 850mb temps all winter and I'd be fine. Great snow growth for orographic snow and plenty cold enough but yet not too cold for synoptic snows.

When I hear people say "cold" I think below normal pattern. Highs in the 27-32F range are fine though, of course some cold is needed for it to snow.

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Haha that's why I said duck and run. Give me -10C 850mb temps all winter and I'd be fine. Great snow growth for orographic snow and plenty cold enough but yet not too cold for synoptic snows.

When I hear people say "cold" I think below normal pattern. Highs in the 27-32F range are fine though, of course some cold is needed for it to snow.

yea I am in the BN pattern is better camp
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yea I am in the BN pattern is better camp

 

Yeah definitely helps where you are.  You can still snow in above normal I'm sure, but if you want that 18F snowstorm it probably has to be below normal. 

 

Of course there are lots of BN patterns that snow big up here, I just don't necessarily look out for it as a true ingredient for snow.  I'm more looking for storminess first and then worry about temps later.  It just can't be a torch, obviously.

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Yeah definitely helps where you are. You can still snow in above normal I'm sure, but if you want that 18F snowstorm it probably has to be below normal.

Of course there are lots of BN patterns that snow big up here, I just don't necessarily look out for it as a true ingredient for snow. I'm more looking for storminess first and then worry about temps later. It just can't be a torch, obviously.

I'll take a below normal temp pattern over an above normal temp pattern any day.

I'll also take an above normal QPF pattern and gamble on temps over a below normal temp pattern an gamble on QPF any day. At least where I am. Def where you are. That is where I differ from ginxy. But it is a total strawman argument when someone contorts that into thinking that I said below normal temp patterns aren't good or better than above normal temp patterns.

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And I bet there were weenies who were ready to jump too...

The most crazy month ever. Imagine -3 in the coldest month having nearly a foot of qpf and only 34 inches of snow? Orh especially had almost 10 inches of water and less than 3 feet with -3. Chris I remember distinctly the forecasts for "yet another rainstorm" on the 20th, 21 inches later.. I asked my Dad if that was the biggest snow.storm he had ever seen in RI, he said nah. I asked him again 2 weeks later, well you know the answer to that!
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The most crazy month ever. Imagine -3 in the coldest month having nearly a foot of qpf and only 34 inches of snow? Orh especially had almost 10 inches of water and less than 3 feet with -3. Chris I remember distinctly the forecasts for "yet another rainstorm" on the 20th, 21 inches later.. I asked my Dad if that was the biggest snow.storm he had ever seen in RI, he said nah. I asked him again 2 weeks later, well you know the answer to that!

 

There was a huge ice storm that month in the interior on Jan 17-18 (tons of sleet up by ORH)...and the Jan 13-14 storm was also sleet contaminated but colder. Both events failed to get out of the 20s in the interior. So a lot of the qpf was frozen over the interior which is why the epic torching Cleveland superbomb was unable to destroy the snowpack that had become bulletproof...I believe ORH still had double digit snow depth after that cutter despite it dropping 3 inches of rain and temps getting into the 50s.

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There was a huge ice storm that month in the interior on Jan 17-18 (tons of sleet up by ORH)...and the Jan 13-14 storm was also sleet contaminated but colder. Both events failed to get out of the 20s in the interior. So a lot of the qpf was frozen over the interior which is why the epic torching Cleveland superbomb was unable to destroy the snowpack that had become bulletproof...I believe ORH still had double digit snow depth after that cutter despite it dropping 3 inches of rain and temps getting into the 50s.

 

2.98" rain and a high of 57, only dropped the depth to 11 from 25.

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There was a huge ice storm that month in the interior on Jan 17-18 (tons of sleet up by ORH)...and the Jan 13-14 storm was also sleet contaminated but colder. Both events failed to get out of the 20s in the interior. So a lot of the qpf was frozen over the interior which is why the epic torching Cleveland superbomb was unable to destroy the snowpack that had become bulletproof...I believe ORH still had double digit snow depth after that cutter despite it dropping 3 inches of rain and temps getting into the 50s.

the atmosphere was absolutely nuts that month. Talk about non stop action. Amazingly after Feb 6 it was a month before we even talked about another storm, it was that quiet. Balance is such a huge part of our world and lives systems.
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Ugh, the data in xmACIS has that ugly 10:1 ratio for the entire month of February 1978 at ORH.

 

The 20.2" measurement in the blizzard has always been off IMHO...the depth increased exactly 20" IIRC so the snowfall was estimated. I imagine there was nobody observing it during that storm up on that death hill at the airport. From past research in old papers, coop data just to the south, etc...I imagine the total was closer to the 24-27" range. Though that storm was like compacted dry cement with the winds shattering all the nice ice crystals.

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The 20.2" measurement in the blizzard has always been off IMHO...the depth increased exactly 20" IIRC so the snowfall was estimated. I imagine there was nobody observing it during that storm up on that death hill at the airport. From past research in old papers, coop data just to the south, etc...I imagine the total was closer to the 24-27" range. Though that storm was like compacted dry cement with the winds shattering all the nice ice crystals.

the official total in Westerly was 21 I think but we measured more but drifting was pretty epic for a rainstorm, edit sorry I thought you were talking about Jan
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