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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I'm at work.

What did he say?

@Cyclone_MQ My own opinion is that some type of SSW is still in the offing. The 0Z GFS doesn't think so however.

@1john22 @TriStatesWx I think all the models are going to have a really tough time over the next week.

@1john22 @TriStatesWx I should say that 0z operational GFS does not have support of the ensembles.

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@Cyclone_MQ My own opinion is that some type of SSW is still in the offing. The 0Z GFS doesn't think so however.

@1john22 @TriStatesWx I think all the models are going to have a really tough time over the next week.

@1john22 @TriStatesWx I should say that 0z operational GFS does not have support of the ensembles.

How is that close to tossing the towel on anything?

I must be missing something.

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Ok.....if the long range GFS verified.

Doesn't sound like a forecast.

Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating.

 

That's not spinning. Look at his tone and demeanor. He then says everything is volatile..but connect the dots. He is concerned clearly.  My opinion, is that it means nothing really in the long term as the Pacific is driving the bus. That has been my opinion from day 1. 

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Ok.....if the long range GFS verified.

Doesn't sound like a forecast.

Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating.

 

What else do you expect from the king of hyperbole?

 

 

I'm guessing you won't see the same people touting those long range GFS runs that show several snowstorms.

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That's not spinning. Look at his tone and demeanor. He then says everything is volatile..but connect the dots. He is concerned clearly.  My opinion, is that it means nothing really in the long term as the Pacific is driving the bus. That has been my opinion from day 1. 

Saying everything is volatile is alluding to the fact that the long range has been very unstable.

That is how I took it.

Do you expect him to post a signed contract guaranteeing a huge finish?

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the only positive you could take from Cohen was he's been about 180 from reality so far...so maybe if he tosses in the towel that's a good thing

All of you guys were all over the -12 SD AO and associated pattern flip.

 

Look, its easy to talk $hit because minor nuances didn't break our way, but you know damn well if he had just grabbed 1-2', this wouldn't be happening.

I'm going out on a limb and saying we are probably going to see another major blocking episode.

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Saying everything is volatile is alluding to the fact that the long range has been very unstable.

That is how I took it.

Do you expect him to post a signed contract guaranteeing a huge finish?

 

Considering he's been in the everything is awesome camp until now, it doesn't take a psychologist to see what his concerns are. That's all I am saying. I have my own thoughts on the pattern and I think myself, Will, and others have made the points about it being not great, but also how it can work out. I'm not expecting Boston to be at like 60" so I think my thought is a fair and reasonable one. 

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All of you guys were all over the -12 SD AO and associated pattern flip.

 

Look, its easy to talk $hit because minor nuances didn't break our way, but you know damn well if he had just grabbed 1-2', this wouldn't be happening.

I'm going out on a limb and saying we are probably going to see another major blocking episode.

 

We probably will if the past has any say. But to tout that SSW will bring on a combined DJFM averaged -AO seems to be in trouble. This last -AO had zero to do with the stratosphere. 

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Considering he's been in the everything is awesome camp until now, it doesn't take a psychologist to see what his concerns are. That's all I am saying. I have my own thoughts on the pattern and I think myself, Will, and others have made the points about it being not great, but also how it can work out. I'm not expecting Boston to be at like 60" so I think my thought is a fair and reasonable one. 

I'm not expecting that, either.

 

Well, being Pollyanna is never good, but I seem to recall you and I noting him padding each blog update with caveats about what could go wrong.

I know Will did, too.

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