danstorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The GEFfs did a complete flip last night. Follow along how can anyone not see this as bad #ninoheater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 how can anyone not see this as bad It's AN and not great, but climo is cold enough up here to potentially capitalize on some events. Maybe some overrunning/SWFE setups? Of course the big gradient could setup halfway through QB too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 +8 Caint happening Dan. Would however be in line with Jan thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The GEFS did a complete flip last night. Follow along Not what Ginxy posted..they looked fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The insanity is such that prominent Meteorologists are making tweets based on 16 day GFS OP runs that have no resemblance to the ENS on any model. I mean you just cant make it up. Who are the weenies really. I mean read through the Judah tweets, geezus. Lol I'm at work. What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is serviceable the new "chances"? Just want to make sure im getting my pattern buzz words down correctly. I'd put it at 4 rungs below Epic and 2 above Atrocious. In other words, below average but spin-able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 aint happening Dan. Would however be in line with Jan thaw. He was correcting me because my response assumed F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm at work. What did he say? @Cyclone_MQ My own opinion is that some type of SSW is still in the offing. The 0Z GFS doesn't think so however.@1john22 @TriStatesWx I think all the models are going to have a really tough time over the next week. @1john22 @TriStatesWx I should say that 0z operational GFS does not have support of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 @Cyclone_MQ My own opinion is that some type of SSW is still in the offing. The 0Z GFS doesn't think so however. @1john22 @TriStatesWx I think all the models are going to have a really tough time over the next week. @1john22 @TriStatesWx I should say that 0z operational GFS does not have support of the ensembles. How is that close to tossing the towel on anything? I must be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 @judah47 If Polar Cap Height from 0Z GFS verified it would be lights out on winter 2016. There's nothing redeeming about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 @judah47 If Polar Cap Height from 0Z GFS verified it would be lights out on winter 2016. There's nothing redeeming about it Ok.....if the long range GFS verified. Doesn't sound like a forecast. Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How is that close to tossing the towel on anything? I must be missing something. I dont take anything as gospel here or on Twitter. List of people who have cancelled winter this week. Wiz,Ryan, Kev, Ed Vallee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I dont take anything as gospel here or on Twitter. List of people who have cancelled winter this week. Wiz,Ryan, Kev, Ed Vallee. The psyche of this board is more unstable than we could ever hope for any PV to be...a pattern replete with split personalities and displaced emotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ok.....if the long range GFS verified. Doesn't sound like a forecast. Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating. Met weenies everywhere. Give me a Alan H anyday and I will roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Met weenies everywhere. Give me a Alan H anyday and I will roll with it. I'll go with Will and Don S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ok.....if the long range GFS verified. Doesn't sound like a forecast. Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating. That's not spinning. Look at his tone and demeanor. He then says everything is volatile..but connect the dots. He is concerned clearly. My opinion, is that it means nothing really in the long term as the Pacific is driving the bus. That has been my opinion from day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I cancelled nothing. Expressing concern over a pattern that looks good for Quebec City is not cancelling winter. Things look rather bleak. Maybe they will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ok.....if the long range GFS verified. Doesn't sound like a forecast. Everyone is spinning $hit and exaggerating. What else do you expect from the king of hyperbole? I'm guessing you won't see the same people touting those long range GFS runs that show several snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The rat's been laughing since November. We have 4 weeks before any reasonable person should throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I cancelled nothing. Expressing concern over a pattern that looks good for Quebec City is not cancelling winter. Things look rather bleak. Maybe they will change Fair enough. Hope you're wrong, but you know I'll credit you if you aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The rat's been laughing since November. We have 4 weeks before any reasonable person should throw in the towel. I said a month last night. I'd be very concerned, but even March and early April can flip the script in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 the only positive you could take from Cohen was he's been about 180 from reality so far...so maybe if he tosses in the towel that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's not spinning. Look at his tone and demeanor. He then says everything is volatile..but connect the dots. He is concerned clearly. My opinion, is that it means nothing really in the long term as the Pacific is driving the bus. That has been my opinion from day 1. Saying everything is volatile is alluding to the fact that the long range has been very unstable. That is how I took it. Do you expect him to post a signed contract guaranteeing a huge finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Fair enough. Hope you're wrong, but you know I'll credit you if you aren't. And as I've said from day 1. I pray my forecast is terribly wrong and yours is right. You know your stuff. You're smarter than me. And I'll buy you some Coors Cutters if you win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 the only positive you could take from Cohen was he's been about 180 from reality so far...so maybe if he tosses in the towel that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 the only positive you could take from Cohen was he's been about 180 from reality so far...so maybe if he tosses in the towel that's a good thing All of you guys were all over the -12 SD AO and associated pattern flip. Look, its easy to talk $hit because minor nuances didn't break our way, but you know damn well if he had just grabbed 1-2', this wouldn't be happening. I'm going out on a limb and saying we are probably going to see another major blocking episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Saying everything is volatile is alluding to the fact that the long range has been very unstable. That is how I took it. Do you expect him to post a signed contract guaranteeing a huge finish? Considering he's been in the everything is awesome camp until now, it doesn't take a psychologist to see what his concerns are. That's all I am saying. I have my own thoughts on the pattern and I think myself, Will, and others have made the points about it being not great, but also how it can work out. I'm not expecting Boston to be at like 60" so I think my thought is a fair and reasonable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It is actually really impressive that by early next week, the AO for this winter will be averaging negative. We've definitely had some tough luck in the current pattern, but it isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 All of you guys were all over the -12 SD AO and associated pattern flip. Look, its easy to talk $hit because minor nuances didn't break our way, but you know damn well if he had just grabbed 1-2', this wouldn't be happening. I'm going out on a limb and saying we are probably going to see another major blocking episode. We probably will if the past has any say. But to tout that SSW will bring on a combined DJFM averaged -AO seems to be in trouble. This last -AO had zero to do with the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Considering he's been in the everything is awesome camp until now, it doesn't take a psychologist to see what his concerns are. That's all I am saying. I have my own thoughts on the pattern and I think myself, Will, and others have made the points about it being not great, but also how it can work out. I'm not expecting Boston to be at like 60" so I think my thought is a fair and reasonable one. I'm not expecting that, either. Well, being Pollyanna is never good, but I seem to recall you and I noting him padding each blog update with caveats about what could go wrong. I know Will did, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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