CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just don't recall seeing it? But yea different stadium. Well those day 7-9 fraud events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't really see anything exciting, but it's serviceable. What I mean is that it looks like airmass is good enough overall for snow rents especially inland. This combines with more active pattern it seems. I think that's what most people see.you don't like the Ens look next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I get what he means but relaxation and reload is funny to read. Lets be honest we are not really getting a relaxation from much. Has winter even started yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Also, past does not predict future. Just because the euro ensembles over-predicted snow over the last few weeks doesn't mean it will now, especially with a different regime. I think we said the same exact thing or close to it, last year. Yep, last January things looked good mid-month, but we weren't getting anything to pop...just a lot of cold and then some meltdowns after a cutter on the 18th or 19th. But the pattern looked good, and past failure obviously did not foreshadow a poor future. Our pattenr is pretty good for the next 10+ days or so...yes, the 11-15 relaxes some....but three things on that: 1. It looks to at least remain active 2. The 11-15 has been so volatile, that there is no reason to freak out 3. Things can change very fast after the 11-15 even if we do actually relax...the idea that the 11-15 is going to represent the pattern 20-25 days ahead is not very credible to me IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 its funny, Will sees exactly what we see yet you have Ryan posting he sees nothing encouraging. All Ryan has said was that he doesn't see any threats for snow in CT for the next ten days and that it looks to get above normal the last week of January. I don't really feel that's to off the wall to say right now looking at the latest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I get what he means but relaxation and reload is funny to read. Lets be honest we are not really getting a relaxation from much. Has winter even started yet?it will be relaxed after the very cold deep 5 H passes this next week. Its going to be a pretty cold week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS OP lost the storm. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS OP lost the storm. Night. Going to bed because of the GFS op? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yep, last January things looked good mid-month, but we weren't getting anything to pop...just a lot of cold and then some meltdowns after a cutter on the 18th or 19th. But the pattern looked good, and past failure obviously did not foreshadow a poor future. Our pattenr is pretty good for the next 10+ days or so...yes, the 11-15 relaxes some....but three things on that: 1. It looks to at least remain active 2. The 11-15 has been so volatile, that there is no reason to freak out 3. Things can change very fast after the 11-15 even if we do actually relax...the idea that the 11-15 is going to represent the pattern 20-25 days ahead is not very credible to me IMHO. That is what I said....it waxes and wanes. It just so happened to wane as the cosmic dildo retreated from our buttocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Going to bed because of the GFS op? lol Reading too much into it. GEFS will prob have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, DT is as gung ho as ever. Was chatting with him a bit on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 you don't like the Ens look next week? I'm thinking more upper air pattern 11-15 day and beyond. Yeah next week has a good look for now. Disclaimer: I didn't cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I also liked how the weeklies were wet. I think that's a good start. Will it mean a lot of snow? Who knows, but it's not bad at all. A little AN in the temp dept won't kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, DT is as gung ho as ever. Was chatting with him a bit on FB. We are in interesting times. Basically playing with fire with the Pacific. What I mean is that it could really go to town if it's cold enough. You'll get these ULL dumbelling across the south playing with polar air to the north. Or, we lose PNA and we get mild Pacific air with snow threats that are more thread the needle. Someway risky, but it sort of has that look of higher stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, DT is as gung ho as ever. Was chatting with him a bit on FB. From what i saw he says it's not a nEw England threat Euro agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm thinking more upper air pattern 11-15 day and beyond. Yeah next week has a good look for now. Disclaimer: I didn't cancel winter.good thing was getting nervous you caught what Ryan has. The cure for Debroscious was displayed in your Euro Ens run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Whats better than 1 PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 good thing was getting nervous you caught what Ryan has. The cure for Debroscious was displayed in your Euro Ens run last night. I think you are giving him crap. I agree with him for the most part. I didn't see him cancel, just said nothing terribly interesting amid an ok pattern. It's not textbook, but it's not a black eye in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 From what i saw he says it's not a nEw England threat Euro agrees Euro op? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro op? LOL. Huh?Ens didn't have overwhelming support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't get it.split at 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think you are giving him crap. I agree with him for the most part. I didn't see him cancel, just said nothing terribly interesting amid an ok pattern. It's not textbook, but it's not a black eye in AK.just calling it as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 split at 50 I don't see one on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Huh?Ens didn't have overwhelming support There was support. About what you'd expect. That's all you can say this far out. Not all members agree for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't see one on ensembles.op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 opextended strat forecasting by an op run makes op runs showing day 10 storms look like a lock. Other than warming over NAMR. Still see no signs yet of SSW. I'm open to it, just not in cards yet. I have some doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just stating what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 cancelar la antorcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Eps looks pretty warm again in the 11-15 day as the pac floods US with warm air. Also you have a +nao and +epo with mean ridge over the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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