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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Also, past does not predict future. Just because the euro ensembles over-predicted snow over the last few weeks doesn't mean it will now, especially with a different regime. I think we said the same exact thing or close to it, last year.

 

 

Yep, last January things looked good mid-month, but we weren't getting anything to pop...just a lot of cold and then some meltdowns after a cutter on the 18th or 19th. But the pattern looked good, and past failure obviously did not foreshadow a poor future.

 

Our pattenr is pretty good for the next 10+ days or so...yes, the 11-15 relaxes some....but three things on that:

 

1. It looks to at least remain active

2. The 11-15 has been so volatile, that there is no reason to freak out

3. Things can change very fast after the 11-15 even if we do actually relax...the idea that the 11-15 is going to represent the pattern 20-25 days ahead is not very credible to me IMHO.

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its funny, Will sees exactly what we see yet you have Ryan posting he sees nothing encouraging.

All Ryan has said was that he doesn't see any threats for snow in CT for the next ten days and that it looks to get above normal the last week of January. I don't really feel that's to off the wall to say right now looking at the latest guidance

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Yep, last January things looked good mid-month, but we weren't getting anything to pop...just a lot of cold and then some meltdowns after a cutter on the 18th or 19th. But the pattern looked good, and past failure obviously did not foreshadow a poor future.

 

Our pattenr is pretty good for the next 10+ days or so...yes, the 11-15 relaxes some....but three things on that:

 

1. It looks to at least remain active

2. The 11-15 has been so volatile, that there is no reason to freak out

3. Things can change very fast after the 11-15 even if we do actually relax...the idea that the 11-15 is going to represent the pattern 20-25 days ahead is not very credible to me IMHO.

That is what I said....it waxes and wanes.

It just so happened to wane as the cosmic dildo retreated from our buttocks.

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FWIW, DT is as gung ho as ever.

Was chatting with him a bit on FB.

We are in interesting times. Basically playing with fire with the Pacific. What I mean is that it could really go to town if it's cold enough. You'll get these ULL dumbelling across the south playing with polar air to the north. Or, we lose PNA and we get mild Pacific air with snow threats that are more thread the needle. Someway risky, but it sort of has that look of higher stakes.

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good thing was getting nervous you caught what Ryan has. The cure for Debroscious was displayed in your Euro Ens run last night.

I think you are giving him crap. I agree with him for the most part. I didn't see him cancel, just said nothing terribly interesting amid an ok pattern. It's not textbook, but it's not a black eye in AK.

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