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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Haven't a lot of the strat guys told us that at the time of an SSW, the AO goes strongly but temporarily positive?  And aren't there signs of an SSW at the end of January?

 

I know the thinking is that an SSW doesn't wreck the polar vortex for about 30 days...but aren't some sensible weather effects felt before that?  Maybe Isotherm can chime in here.

 

Anyway, it seems the rumors of winter's demise might be greatly exagerated this time around.

I'm certainly no "strat guy", but it looks like the end of the month may get us close to where we want to be?

Day 10 progs of 30mb and 50mb

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It takes 2-4 weeks.

 

The models have been flopping...to me, this butt-hurt epidemic that has swept through the forum is the result of being cosmically porked out of a nice event, while simultaneously seeing modeling wane again.

The "see, told you it was a ratter" is absolutely sophomoric.

Period.

That is what that type of poster does, though....the MO when they do not get their snow is to 1) cash in the defense mechanism chips and fall back on the "told you so" consolation.....and 2) Project the venomous frustration onto those who told them they would get their snow.

Rinse, repeat...

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It takes 2-4 weeks.

 

The models have been flopping...to me, this butt-hurt epidemic that has swept through the forum is the result of being cosmically porked out of a nice event, while simultaneously seeing modeling wane again.

The "see, told you it was a ratter" is absolutely sophomoric.

Period.

That is what that type of poster does, though....the MO when they do not get their snow is to 1) cash in the defense mechanism chips and fall back on the "told you so" consolation.....and 2) Project the venomous frustration onto those who told them they would get their snow.

Rinse, repeat...

yeah, but we have to get there

this is a 10 day forecast so that's why I say being where we want to be by the end of the month

of course, then we start running out of time if we're hoping to get some help from getting to where we want to be

as for your frustration, the mods should probably merge every forum into the Mid Atlantic forum this year since they're all sounding like us     lol

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yeah, but we have to get there

this is a 10 day forecast so that's why I say being where we want to be by the end of the month

of course, then we start running out of time if we're hoping to get some help from getting to where we want to be

as for your frustration, the mods should probably merge every forum into the Mid Atlantic forum this year since they're all sounding like us     lol

I certainly get the angst...I don't like the turn of events, but it is what it is.

Far too early to be calling the winter, though.

It's like calling the season a blockbuster if manage to get a foot next wknd.

 

Models also waned just before this least period burst onto the model scene...many probably don't even remember.

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I certainly get the angst...I don't like the turn of events, but it is what it is.

Far too early to be calling the winter, though.

It's like calling the season a blockbuster if manage to get a foot next wknd.

Models also waned just before this least period burst onto the model scene...many probably don't even remember.

Well, I'm not calling it over. On 12/3 I posted that we wouldn't see snow of consequence at BWI before 1/15. That's gone well, but I also went for AN snows so I can only hope that threat for 1/22-1/23 works out, we reshuffle with normal to above, then keep my fingers crossed we get a great pattern to end the season to make it over the hump....or we just end the season snowless so I have a legit excuse to whine like a baby for the next 10 months! Either way, life goes on.
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Haven't a lot of the strat guys told us that at the time of an SSW, the AO goes strongly but temporarily positive? And aren't there signs of an SSW at the end of January?

I know the thinking is that an SSW doesn't wreck the polar vortex for about 30 days...but aren't some sensible weather effects felt before that? Maybe Isotherm can chime in here.

Anyway, it seems the rumors of winter's demise might be greatly exagerated this time around.

SSW is the most overused and over rated event out there
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And in the more good news dept, Euro ens have another threat at the end of the 14-15 day period which Ens wise drops even more snow across New England, by the end of 15 days there is 12-18 across NNE and a good 5-10 across SNE according to Euro ens means that is. In fact the best look snow wise of this season. so people want to say there is nothing to look forward to are basing it on emotions not Ens forecasting. this is what it shows just reporting and this is not for the MA

the euro ensembles have been predicting a fair amount of snow for several weeks back and none of it has verified
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I certainly get the angst...I don't like the turn of events, but it is what it is.

Far too early to be calling the winter, though.

It's like calling the season a blockbuster if manage to get a foot next wknd.

 

Models also waned just before this least period burst onto the model scene...many probably don't even remember.

 

We got a hanging curve and fouled it off this week....it happens. Sucks when it does, but if we batted 1.000 on every hanging curve, then Cooperstown would have a lot higher standards.

 

But we'll probably get at least 1 or 2 more hangers in the next 10-12 days. Wouldn't shock me if we saw a 1983-esque scenario, where we get a good event, (like mid January that year), then a quick relaxation before a reload.

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We got a hanging curve and fouled it off this week....it happens. Sucks when it does, but if we batted 1.000 on every hanging curve, then Cooperstown would have a lot higher standards.

But we'll probably get at least 1 or 2 more hangers in the next 10-12 days. Wouldn't shock me if we saw a 1983-esque scenario, where we get a good event, (like mid January that year), then a quick relaxation before a reload.

give me one storm aka blizzard of feb 83 and I will be happy
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We got a hanging curve and fouled it off this week....it happens. Sucks when it does, but if we batted 1.000 on every hanging curve, then Cooperstown would have a lot higher standards.

 

But we'll probably get at least 1 or 2 more hangers in the next 10-12 days. Wouldn't shock me if we saw a 1983-esque scenario, where we get a good event, (like mid January that year), then a quick relaxation before a reload.

Perfectly stated.

 

People are frustrated.

Brian is a perfect example.

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what have they predicted then? Jb and jd have been showing then on weatherbell on winter showing pretty pink colors for SNE since mid December and yet we have zip

hmm, Euro Mean has not shown anything much for SNE for snow this month. Like Jerry posted today, todays ens were the most prolific yet. Sure you aren't confusing something?
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Also, past does not predict future. Just because the euro ensembles over-predicted snow over the last few weeks doesn't mean it will now, especially with a different regime. I think we said the same exact thing or close to it, last year.

I just don't recall seeing it? But yea different stadium.
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