CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Temps in Feb-Mar 2013 were a few tenths of either side of normal JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Nov-Dec-Jan were pretty mild over that year. That was a good example of the interior doing well and the coast just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I have a short memory and completely trust your knowledge of specific winters over mine. But the one I can recall, 2012-13, I thought wasn't really a warm pattern for February and March when most of the snowfall occurred, and most of the warmth was from large anomalies in Dec-Jan. Late December 2012 for ORH: Date.....Temp +/-....Snowfall 12/25......+3..............0.6 12/26.......0...............3.7 12/27......+4..............3.0 12/28......+1..............0.0 12/29.......0...............9.3 You can see the pattern wasn't a cold one...it was mild overall, though when the actual precip fell, we were close to neutral because that is what happens. Lets move onto Feb 2013...early Feb during the blizzard was cold, but later on it was not. Date.....Temp +/-....Snowfall 2/22.......+1..............0.0 2/23.......+2..............2.0 2/24.......+2..............6.1 2/25.......+2..............T 2/26.......+6..............0.0 2/27.......+5..............2.4 There's 27.1" of snow that winter which occurred during periods where there were zero days below normal for temps. I mean, we can move onto March too....3/8/13 had 14.9" at ORH on a +1 day. This is getting very specific and I don't like to do it because it becomes much too anecdotel, but I presented this only because you brought up 2013 as an example. IIRC, the covariance of temps and precip is pretty high...but when I ran them both against snowfall, precip was more important...there was a residual of like 0.2-0.3 or something. I don't have the excel spreadsheet in front of me right now at work, but I'll see if I can get it when I am home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 JC, you can simply look at temps for ORH in winter (avg temps meaning the mean). Look at +2-3 and see how cold that still is. Well ORH is a bit on the cold & snowy side of the spectrum though, BOS is north of 84 and I remember in late December 2012 SST were too warm and it was all rain there. Temps in Feb-Mar 2013 were a few tenths of either side of normal JC. Thanks, that's kind of what I thought. I wouldn't call that an AN pattern though. Maybe we are not considering the same thing as marginal temps, I would call +2-+3 as marginal, but not normal temps as marginal. Anyway, thanks all for responding. I appreciate the ability to learn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 How did Jan 04 work out? 17 inches 3 above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well ORH is a bit on the cold & snowy side of the spectrum though, BOS is north of 84 and I remember in late December 2012 SST were too warm and it was all rain there. Thanks, that's kind of what I thought. I wouldn't call that an AN pattern though. Maybe we are not considering the same thing as marginal temps, I would call +2-+3 as marginal, but not normal temps as marginal. Anyway, thanks all for responding. I appreciate the ability to learn here. I was just pointing out how it was pretty warm, but also snowy. Will took it a step further to show you the daily breakdown. For me personally, the cold is definitely a security blanket on the coast. However, if you told me my DJFM period would be drier than normal, I would be a bit nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Phil says big trouble ahead CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 1h 1 hour ago Cold next week...but some signs that #eltorcho returns later this month: http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/back-to-a-milder-than-average-pattern/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Phil says big trouble ahead CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 1h 1 hour ago Cold next week...but some signs that #eltorcho returns later this month: http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/back-to-a-milder-than-average-pattern/ … signs being the Euro op? , man I like this Ens look coming out for the 1/23 ish period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 signs being the Euro op? , man I like this Ens look coming out for the 1/23 ish period He posted ensemble mean. I don't think anyone disagrees with some type of storm threat..snow or rain..It's after that when we use up the cold that's in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 He posted ensemble mean. I don't think anyone disagrees with some type of storm threat..snow or rain..It's after that when we use up the cold that's in question Yea 32-38ish is now el torcho, thats what Euro Ens and GEFS have have, just saying. And we get accused of hyping cold, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There definitely looks to be a lot of disagreement in the ensembles on where we are at the end of the month. This is going to be tough on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1m1 minute ago Anthony Masiello Retweeted Anthony Masiello This can be posted now again. Late Jan into early Feb looking warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There definitely looks to be a lot of disagreement in the ensembles on where we are at the end of the month. This is going to be tough on guidance. Phil, Leonard, HM and Ryan all going torch, guess we will see. Looks on Euro Ens an AN normal period but for us not terrible. Ryan is on the winter is over thought train, he has posted as such many times. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Meanwhile Ray says his outlook on track . #ninoheater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 How did we go from normal temps this morning for end of Jan/early Feb..to winter ending and torch this afternoon? Was there that big of flip on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Phil, Leonard, HM and Ryan all going torch, guess we will see. Looks on Euro Ens an AN normal period but for us not terrible. Ryan is on the winter is over thought train, he has posted as such many times. We shall see. Not saying winter is over but there's absolutely nothing right now to get excited about. Better hope we can get a storm threat with the NAO on our side in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 How did we go from normal temps this morning for end of Jan/early Feb..to winter ending and torch this afternoon? Was there that big of flip on the ensembles? The weenies thought that but most I know were predicting a warm up toward the end of the month into early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 The weenies thought that but most I know were predicting a warm up toward the end of the month into early February. Well Scooter and Will on here just this morning said maybe normal to slightly AN but stormy. No-one said anything about torching and ending winter. Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 18m18 minutes ago Pattern change imminent last week Jan. Pacific is the same but reversal in NAO means end of arctic cold, for now. 4 retweets7 likes Reply Retweet 4 Like 7 More Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 18m18 minutes ago @DanLeonard_wx The NAO was so kind to us in the snow department too. 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 16m16 minutes ago @ryanhanrahan Yep the pattern was favorable, just got unlucky. Going to be a lot harder to get a big one beyond next weekend. 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 15m15 minutes ago @DanLeonard_wx Yup - just didn't work out this time. Always next winter. 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Steve Gencarelle @steveginx 8m8 minutes agoConnecticut, USA @ryanhanrahan @DanLeonard_wx first Twitter winter cancel post of the year 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 6m6 minutes ago @steveginx @DanLeonard_wx You're still all snowmen and powder days when long range pattern looks like garbage. Reality hurts 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Steve Gencarelle @steveginx 5m5 minutes agoConnecticut, USA @ryanhanrahan @DanLeonard_wx lol so you cancel the rest of winter alrighty then 0 retweets0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not saying winter is over but there's absolutely nothing right now to get excited about. Better hope we can get a storm threat with the NAO on our side in the next 10 days. the Euro and GEFs ens at day 8 are nothing to look at. I mean get excited is for day 3 , that is a good look this far out. I know you are all Debbie and all and for good reasons but cmon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 the Euro and GEFs ens at day 8 are nothing to look at. I mean get excited is for day 3 , that is a good look this far out. I know you are all Debbie and all and for good reasons but cmon now. Can't wait for my 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 I don't put much stock into what HM says. But I do agree torch is coming Remember all the talk was Feb would rock, be snowy, best month of winter etc etc. Good Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can't wait for my 0.5" There have been some great busts by the Met community this year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Actually I'm wondering if Alex has any influence on this pattern reversal. Looks to be heading toward the eastern arctic in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Actually I'm wondering if Alex has any influence on this pattern reversal. Looks to be heading toward the eastern arctic in the long range. Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Haven't a lot of the strat guys told us that at the time of an SSW, the AO goes strongly but temporarily positive? And aren't there signs of an SSW at the end of January? I know the thinking is that an SSW doesn't wreck the polar vortex for about 30 days...but aren't some sensible weather effects felt before that? Maybe Isotherm can chime in here. Anyway, it seems the rumors of winter's demise might be greatly exagerated this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge? dunno. I don't think this situation has ever occurred before. Maybe its the reason for the abrupt change. The unexpected turd entering the punch bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge? wut?anyways in good news dept Euro ens mean is 4-8 across Ct not Ryans .5 for the next threat , lets hope that holds or even builds. One storm at a time this year, volatility was the call. More good news new GFS para is pretty stout with the ULL snows , at least a couple of inches, man heckuva a classic text book PWM INVT too, That sig has been there for a long way out (Debbies will doubt but its been there in some shape or form) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Kevin is ridiculous. I wish he could read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I don't put much stock into what HM says. But I do agree torch is coming Remember all the talk was Feb would rock, be snowy, best month of winter etc etc. Good Lord I don't see the issue. It looks probably more AN, but I don't see it as a torch yet. There probably is a warm risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, more typical Nino. Maybe normal to a bit AN. This is how i read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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