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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Yup

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello  2h

@antmasiello what this means is what I've already outlined (for those asking).A return of traditional T anomaly for CONUS Late Jan-early Feb

I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me.

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I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me.

I worry because we are in the coldest climo period of our winter and we have been active....and all we have to show for it is below 5 inches of snow up and down the northeast. Now temps are forecast to get near normal or slightly above.

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They said no "good cold". Doesn't necessarily mean we can't snow. Esp up here in NE. Active pattern is what we want. Worry about temps second.

I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me.

Steve, do you think that you and I, at mid-CT latitude and 500' elevation, worry about precipitation first and temperature second? Just curious.
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Steve, do you think that you and I, at mid-CT latitude and 500' elevation, worry about precipitation first and temperature second? Just curious.

I don't worry at all , it comes down to now casting anyways. all this hand wringing and worry is total wasted energy. Get me a storm in winter, let me track it, the day of or day before I will know whats up. not talking about storms heading to the GL, talking about nearby storms. It really doesn't matter where you live either, temperatures of course matter more than precip.

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It looks interesting, but not very cold.

Nothing is changing, its just that people present information quickly based upon how they perceive it.

 

Nobody said sh*tty. Jesus this forum sometimes. If 2015 isn't mentioned, the pattern is just assumed to be dogsh*t. Why can't things just be OK? Is that possible?

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So you weren't insinuating anything when you were raving about start warming.

Ok...my mistake.

 

I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles.

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I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles.

We'll see.

 

Sick of analyzing it.

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I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles.

totally overrated ,just keep that cold close, I think a lot of MAtl folks are hoping but honestly as proved so many years up here, meh.
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I will absolutely take precip first and temperatures 2nd.

 

Just as a quick exercise for interior SNE...ORH in the past 25 years (since 1990) has had the following breakdown of snowfall:

 

Above average: 12

Average: 4

Below Average: 9

 

The 9 below average are 1990-1991, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2006-2007, and 2011-2012. There was 1 of those 9 winters that had above average precip and that was 1997-1998...and out of the 9 winters below average, 1997-1998 had the most snowfall at 54.7". 1998-1999 was near average precip and the rest was solidly below average.

 

In contrast, the following years with above average temps either had average or above average snowfall: 1996-1997, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2012-2013. All of them except 2005-2006 had above average precip...and 2005-2006 was the low year in the group at 66.2"...the other 3 were above average snowfall.

 

Temperatures still matter...there's no claim that they do not. But precip matters more. One thing to take into consideration is that many of our warm/mild patters are also dry...so the two come in tandem. There's some covariance there. However, if we enter a pattern that is not particularly cold, but offers a lot of storm chances, then you should probably take that over a pattern that is very cold, but doesn't look too active. At least if you are in interior SNE...it gets more dicey further south along the south coast or SE areas. In those regions, you do not require a train of storms to stay above average for snowfall...just a couple good sized events will usually keep things in the black. The rest of our region needs consistent storm chances.

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I will absolutely take precip first and temperatures 2nd.

 

Just as a quick exercise for interior SNE...ORH in the past 25 years (since 1990) has had the following breakdown of snowfall:

 

Above average: 12

Average: 4

Below Average: 9

 

The 9 below average are 1990-1991, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2006-2007, and 2011-2012. There was 1 of those 9 winters that had above average precip and that was 1997-1998...and out of the 9 winters below average, 1997-1998 had the most snowfall at 54.7". 1998-1999 was near average precip and the rest was solidly below average.

 

In contrast, the following years with above average temps either had average or above average snowfall: 1996-1997, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2012-2013. All of them except 2005-2006 had above average precip...and 2005-2006 was the low year in the group at 66.2"...the other 3 were above average snowfall.

 

Temperatures still matter...there's no claim that they do not. But precip matters more. One thing to take into consideration is that many of our warm/mild patters are also dry...so the two come in tandem. There's some covariance there. However, if we enter a pattern that is not particularly cold, but offers a lot of storm chances, then you should probably take that over a pattern that is very cold, but doesn't look too active. At least if you are in interior SNE...it gets more dicey further south along the south coast or SE areas. In those regions, you do not require a train of storms to stay above average for snowfall...just a couple good sized events will usually keep things in the black. The rest of our region needs consistent storm chances.

just get us the cold I will worry about precip later

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