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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Inv troughs do happen. With the PV diving down like that...it's not like flat out 100% no. However, I agree it's not likely. 

 

We probably get at least two inv trough events per winter...they usually are not large events (often 1-3 type systems), but they happen. More rarely, we'll get a larger inv trough event (like Feb 2013 and MLK 2014)

 

 

I would never predict one though this far out (4-5 days).

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We probably get at least two inv trough events per winter...they usually are not large events (often 1-3 type systems), but they happen. More rarely, we'll get a larger inv trough event (like Feb 2013 and MLK 2014)

 

 

I would never predict one though this far out (4-5 days).

pretty sure no one predicted one but I will say I have been "watching' for the possibility for a couple of days. Precursors are there, like yesterday . Is it rare yes, but I said yesterday the coast would fare better Monday than Saturday. Just a gut instinct of mine. I was happy to see the Euro agreed last night, might change in 2 hours but at least for one run prior to the run I had an idea, lol

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Hopefully. Roads are salty.

All those posts yesterday and earlier about promising pattern..snowy looks etc..instead this weekend now rains to Maine..and we lose the cold and entertain more chances of rain moving forward.

 

All that crap I took about forecasting a ratter backed up with my reasoning.

 

And here we are.

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All those posts yesterday and earlier about promising pattern..snowy looks etc..instead this weekend now rains to Maine..and we lose the cold and entertain more chances of rain moving forward.

 

All that crap I took about forecasting a ratter backed up with my reasoning.

 

And here we are.

 

Spiking the ball pre Jan 15? You get crap because you pull stuff out of your behind and use hyperbole. Just like last winter was the "take what we can get, nickel and dime winter."    Your first paragraph explains it all. Nobody said that. 

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Spiking the ball pre Jan 15? You get crap because you pull stuff out of your behind and use hyperbole. Just like last winter was the "take what we can get, nickel and dime winter."    Your first paragraph explains it all. Nobody said that. 

At least it's snowing this morning.

 

You just posted we lose the cold yet get more active.

 

Unless I misunderstand..that translates to RAIN

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At least it's snowing this morning.

 

You just posted we lose the cold yet get more active.

 

Unless I misunderstand..that translates to RAIN

 

You misunderstood. Cold as in like BN. We don't need -10 departures, but of course we don't want +10. Maybe it's rain...maybe it's snowy, but mild. I don't know. There is still a decent ridge out in NW Canada, but PAC jet crashes into CA too.

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Definitely signs that flow becomes more Pacific dominated. Bad news is that we may not have the cold. On the flip side, it may be more active.

Eps continues to get warmer in the 11-15 day range more pac flow , HM said we go back to typical Nino climo the end of January. Might get ugly if that happens, but on the other hand it never really started

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I don't give a crap about temps. You need storms which we sort of have been lacking. At least that looks to try and happen. 

Very excited about the upcoming pattern myself. Debbies gonna Debra what cha gonna do? I am sure Champy who posts every two years will come in here and chastise me but I don't care. All we ask for is chances in late Jan.

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I don't give a crap about temps. You need storms which we sort of have been lacking. At least that looks to try and happen. 

 

Yeah bring the storms...maybe it does rain, but this one synoptic storm every 7-10 days (that have been trending to crap the bed) is boring from that end. 

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No he didn't. He said normal temps end of Jan and early Feb

@antmasiello 8m8 minutes ago

@wxmvpete and this simply means, I don't favor an east coast low or anything like that. Enough lingering cold possibly for wintry start here

@wxmvpete 7m7 minutes ago

@antmasiello Does make that next weekend window intriguing but how long the cold sticks around in the east in this pattern is tough to tell

@antmasiello 6m6 minutes ago

@wxmvpete I'm not optimistic for anything substantial here and I'm leaning against the GFS suite.

‏@wxmvpete 5m5 minutes ago

@antmasiello Think I'm in your camp too. Just haven't seen anything in the 11-15 day window to support good cold in the east

@antmasiello 4m4 minutes ago

@wxmvpete it's only going to get worse later in month into at least the first third of Feb as Pac and PV ramp up

@antmasiello 3m3 minutes ago

@wxmvpete I'm banking on a mid Feb PNA flip as waves retrograde some and possibly more NAO help arrives.

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You sure?

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@antmasiello 8m8 minutes ago

@wxmvpete and this simply means, I don't favor an east coast low or anything like that. Enough lingering cold possibly for wintry start here

@wxmvpete 7m7 minutes ago

@antmasiello Does make that next weekend window intriguing but how long the cold sticks around in the east in this pattern is tough to tell

@antmasiello 6m6 minutes ago

@wxmvpete I'm not optimistic for anything substantial here and I'm leaning against the GFS suite.

‏@wxmvpete 5m5 minutes ago

@antmasiello Think I'm in your camp too. Just haven't seen anything in the 11-15 day window to support good cold in the east

@antmasiello 4m4 minutes ago

@wxmvpete it's only going to get worse later in month into at least the first third of Feb as Pac and PV ramp up

@antmasiello 3m3 minutes ago

@wxmvpete I'm banking on a mid Feb PNA flip as waves retrograde some and possibly more NAO help arrives.

Quote

You sure?

Yup

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello  2h

@antmasiello what this means is what I've already outlined (for those asking).A return of traditional T anomaly for CONUS Late Jan-early Feb

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