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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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The IO concerns really have diminished if the progs are right. I only see a very weak signal. On the other hand, the forcing near the dateline weakens too. So maybe I would guess that the pattern in the 11-15 day may stay that way for a little while anyways. 

I'm going to need this one to be a solid, widespread double digit event for a lot of NE, then really cash in on round two in order to verify.

Very doable.

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The modelled spike in wave activity flux for the January 22nd-27th period coincides well with the tropospheric precursors and displacement-blocking precursor, with its associated time lag. So the fact that data is significantly warming the 10hpa level in this period isn't too surprising to me. At the very least I would anticipate a rapid deceleration of the mean zonal winds in late January, but I continue to lean toward a displacement event occurring [which has been the favored result this winter due to the expectation for predominance of wave 1 constructive interference).

 

06z GEFS zonal winds credit to Recretos: 

 

 

 

2lvjrya.png

 

 

 

What should occur is a neutralization of the AO for about one week or so [not solidly positive like December] as the wave flux forces the stratospheric polar cap heights above normal, which temporarily induces a weakening of the tropospheric heights. However, the stratospheric signal should then down-well with a resumption of the sustained -AO signal. That neutralization period typically centers around the date of SSW events.

 

In response to Dr. Cohen's post. Last week, I couldn't understand why he was bewildered by the mature negative AO arriving prior to the SSW. This week, he provides an example of the 2006 vortex displacement into Europe, which didn't chill the United States. Examining that particular case, the tropospheric AO modality did not respond following the Jan 2006 warming. The February 2006 AO was only near neutral, with a negative NAO, and so the pattern wasn't that cold. Also note that we've had a couple of SSW split events that resulted in zero reflection in the AO state. This is again why I stress - the outcome of this winter did not hinge upon a SSW. One absolutely must analyze the tropospheric indicators as they're of utmost importance in terms of inducing a favorable regime for high latitude blocking. Sometimes the tropospheric state is such that the conditions strongly favor a +AO, and thus a SSW won't induce much change. This particular winter is one in which the tropospheric state is favorable for blocking, and we should see a tropospheric-stratospheric coupling, such that the SSW - if it occurs - should prolong the negative AO state.

 

Will be interesting to see. 

 

 

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

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Cosgrove an hour ago.  He says its happening.

 

A complex storm threat over the eastern third of the nation may bring some critical changes to U.S. weather starting this weekend. While this will be mainly a moderate/heavy rain event below the Mason-Dixon Line (perhaps some snow and sleet in middle Appalachia), intensification off of the New Jersey coast may enable a cold air draw from Quebec on Saturday PM into Sunday. So a surprise change to snow could occur from the PHL metro into New England. Following this system: an Arctic intrusion for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard next week.

I should also mention that there is a huge sudden stratospheric warming event is taking place. By weakening the circumpolar vortex (this time in definitive fashion), chances for widespread blocking in western and northern North America will expand yet again in the last days of January.

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    that is almost TOTAL  WISHCAST

  the 0z GFS  again  shows a  VERY strong 992mb  PRIMARY LOW into  eastern  great Lakes    the r/s  Line  moves  NORTH of
Boston    and POU  


 

Cosgrove an hour ago.  He says its happening.

 

A complex storm threat over the eastern third of the nation may bring some critical changes to U.S. weather starting this weekend. While this will be mainly a moderate/heavy rain event below the Mason-Dixon Line (perhaps some snow and sleet in middle Appalachia), intensification off of the New Jersey coast may enable a cold air draw from Quebec on Saturday PM into Sunday. So a surprise change to snow could occur from the PHL metro into New England. Following this system: an Arctic intrusion for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard next week.

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Let's wait for Ray to chime in on it.

I am looking at how that long wave trough interacts with an offshore storm, don't give a crap if people poo poo it, just discussing possibilities and future developments. Its always isn't about some super storm. Sometimes its events like last night, for me pretty crappy, but for many super fun. Its weather all kinds of things occur.

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LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. 

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LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. 

perfectly stated

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LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. 

 

 

Yeah the Euro ens look decent. No overly cold, but it's active. Temps near normal and active is pretty much a look you'd hope to see in a potent Nino. It's the classic warm N plains, but coldish SE/S Mid-Atlantic look which is fine.

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Nothing.

 

You just have to know when to fold 'em, dude.

 

I think people would be better served to wonder what had "happened" to me had I kept blindly calling for a major snow event this weekend.

This doesn't make me feel differently about my winter outlook, no.

I still love my seasonal progression, but I'm sorry that I could not foresee a tad too much PV lobe interaction at a two month lead. :lol:

 

I still think that the second half rocks, and if it doesn't, then it will have been due to the bad luck associated with atmospheric chaos, not a bad forecasting rationale....though I will still grade my snowfall amounts as is.

Posted this in the other thread.

It was a fluke that we aren't getting crushed here, and it would be a mistake for anyone to cancel anything after this event.

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