40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The IO concerns really have diminished if the progs are right. I only see a very weak signal. On the other hand, the forcing near the dateline weakens too. So maybe I would guess that the pattern in the 11-15 day may stay that way for a little while anyways. I'm going to need this one to be a solid, widespread double digit event for a lot of NE, then really cash in on round two in order to verify. Very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The modelled spike in wave activity flux for the January 22nd-27th period coincides well with the tropospheric precursors and displacement-blocking precursor, with its associated time lag. So the fact that data is significantly warming the 10hpa level in this period isn't too surprising to me. At the very least I would anticipate a rapid deceleration of the mean zonal winds in late January, but I continue to lean toward a displacement event occurring [which has been the favored result this winter due to the expectation for predominance of wave 1 constructive interference). 06z GEFS zonal winds credit to Recretos: What should occur is a neutralization of the AO for about one week or so [not solidly positive like December] as the wave flux forces the stratospheric polar cap heights above normal, which temporarily induces a weakening of the tropospheric heights. However, the stratospheric signal should then down-well with a resumption of the sustained -AO signal. That neutralization period typically centers around the date of SSW events. In response to Dr. Cohen's post. Last week, I couldn't understand why he was bewildered by the mature negative AO arriving prior to the SSW. This week, he provides an example of the 2006 vortex displacement into Europe, which didn't chill the United States. Examining that particular case, the tropospheric AO modality did not respond following the Jan 2006 warming. The February 2006 AO was only near neutral, with a negative NAO, and so the pattern wasn't that cold. Also note that we've had a couple of SSW split events that resulted in zero reflection in the AO state. This is again why I stress - the outcome of this winter did not hinge upon a SSW. One absolutely must analyze the tropospheric indicators as they're of utmost importance in terms of inducing a favorable regime for high latitude blocking. Sometimes the tropospheric state is such that the conditions strongly favor a +AO, and thus a SSW won't induce much change. This particular winter is one in which the tropospheric state is favorable for blocking, and we should see a tropospheric-stratospheric coupling, such that the SSW - if it occurs - should prolong the negative AO state. Will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Cosgrove an hour ago. He says its happening. A complex storm threat over the eastern third of the nation may bring some critical changes to U.S. weather starting this weekend. While this will be mainly a moderate/heavy rain event below the Mason-Dixon Line (perhaps some snow and sleet in middle Appalachia), intensification off of the New Jersey coast may enable a cold air draw from Quebec on Saturday PM into Sunday. So a surprise change to snow could occur from the PHL metro into New England. Following this system: an Arctic intrusion for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard next week. I should also mention that there is a huge sudden stratospheric warming event is taking place. By weakening the circumpolar vortex (this time in definitive fashion), chances for widespread blocking in western and northern North America will expand yet again in the last days of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 What are thoughts on long range Euro today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What are thoughts on long range Euro today?after a strong signal threat on the 24th,there looks like a day or two of slightly AN before the next threat comes in and the PNA and EPO are looking good again. If the SSW occurs expect a nicer yet look LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 that is almost TOTAL WISHCAST the 0z GFS again shows a VERY strong 992mb PRIMARY LOW into eastern great Lakes the r/s Line moves NORTH ofBoston and POU Cosgrove an hour ago. He says its happening. A complex storm threat over the eastern third of the nation may bring some critical changes to U.S. weather starting this weekend. While this will be mainly a moderate/heavy rain event below the Mason-Dixon Line (perhaps some snow and sleet in middle Appalachia), intensification off of the New Jersey coast may enable a cold air draw from Quebec on Saturday PM into Sunday. So a surprise change to snow could occur from the PHL metro into New England. Following this system: an Arctic intrusion for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 LC continues to have an awful winter. Forecasting a cold Nov and normal Dec and now this. Deal with it -Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Getting more bully for the Invt Sun Monday and still am bully for the week of the 23-26th, we evolve into winter on our month behind schedule. Going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Getting more bully for the Invt Sun Monday and still am bully for the week of the 23-26th, we evolve into winter on our month behind schedule. Going to be fun did you read gyx disco? they also seem bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 did you read gyx disco? they also seem bullish Yea the invt is interesting also regarding Saturday there are some models that nail Maine hard, lets see how this evolves once the secondary forms, won't take much to put you guys in the comma head and dynamic blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Inv trough where? I don't see much evidence for that in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Inv trough where? I don't see much evidence for that in SNE OP euro had it for the 2nd system. I'm skeptical but it's not out of the envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 General thoughts on the LR? Post-weekend into Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 OP euro had it for the 2nd system. I'm skeptical but it's not out of the envelope of possibilities. Let's wait for Ray to chime in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The LR sucks for SNE per the GFS. It has rain-cold-rain-cold-rain. At least it looks like ski country will make out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The LR sucks for SNE per the GFS. It has rain-cold-rain-cold-rain. At least it looks like ski country will make out well. do you actually use the OP GFS for anything LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 OP euro had it for the 2nd system. I'm skeptical but it's not out of the envelope of possibilities. He doesn't look at modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Let's wait for Ray to chime in on it. I am looking at how that long wave trough interacts with an offshore storm, don't give a crap if people poo poo it, just discussing possibilities and future developments. Its always isn't about some super storm. Sometimes its events like last night, for me pretty crappy, but for many super fun. Its weather all kinds of things occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 do you actually use the OP GFS for anything LR? No but the GEFS didn't look to much better. It seems that we never have a HP to the north when needed. I know things can change very fast but it just looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. perfectly stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Getting more bully for the Invt Sun Monday and still am bully for the week of the 23-26th, we evolve into winter on our month behind schedule. Going to be fun GEFS for the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 perfectly stated I mean, look..if it happens, it happens. But show me the rat patterns and show me the next 2 weeks or so. I would argue that the pattern as modeled wouldn't jive with those composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I mean, look..if it happens, it happens. But show me the rat patterns and show me the next 2 weeks or so. I would argue that the pattern as modeled wouldn't jive with those composites. I am very encouraged actually when we enter these very active periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 LR isn't bad at all. As much as it sucks to get the shaft in storm...that's the way it is sometimes. You can't let that cloud your judgement. The biggest guarantee of a skunker, is the big black eye near AK. We don't have that. We still have a decent +PNA ridge with a PAC jet trying to undercut. That's not a rat pattern. Whether or not it works out remains to be seen, but the big picture is not a rat IMHO. Yeah the Euro ens look decent. No overly cold, but it's active. Temps near normal and active is pretty much a look you'd hope to see in a potent Nino. It's the classic warm N plains, but coldish SE/S Mid-Atlantic look which is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nothing. You just have to know when to fold 'em, dude. I think people would be better served to wonder what had "happened" to me had I kept blindly calling for a major snow event this weekend. This doesn't make me feel differently about my winter outlook, no. I still love my seasonal progression, but I'm sorry that I could not foresee a tad too much PV lobe interaction at a two month lead. I still think that the second half rocks, and if it doesn't, then it will have been due to the bad luck associated with atmospheric chaos, not a bad forecasting rationale....though I will still grade my snowfall amounts as is. Posted this in the other thread. It was a fluke that we aren't getting crushed here, and it would be a mistake for anyone to cancel anything after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 OP euro had it for the 2nd system. I'm skeptical but it's not out of the envelope of possibilities. You honestly believe an inverted trough has a real chance of producing a sizeable event here? I vote no, instinctively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Let's wait for Ray to chime in on it. What is that supposed to mean? Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You honestly believe an inverted trough has a real chance of producing a sizeable event here? I vote no, instinctively. Did you not read my post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Did you not read my post? Yes. You said it isn't out of the envelope of possibilities. And I asked if you honestly thought that would happen......IOW, gut instinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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