40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think split, but any warming or ridging that reverses the mean westerlies will have implications below it, in the troposphere. Why split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why split? Because I think a split would help place a PV into Canada. If that happens, it could aid in cold delivery into U.S. That is my opinion anyways. I don't pretend to be an expert. There also isn't a total corespondence from stratosphere to troposphere because there exists a very distinct boundary to which airmasses can't always be exchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Because I think a split would help place a PV into Canada. If that happens, it could aid in cold delivery into U.S. That is my opinion anyways. I don't pretend to be an expert. There also isn't a total corespondence from stratosphere to troposphere because there exists a very distinct boundary to which airmasses can't always be exchanged. Well, it depends which side of the globe it ends up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well, it depends which side of the globe it ends up... Well idealy one on this side, and the other part of PV on other in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I agree, Scott. You are correct. The optimal wave-2 constructive interference typically involves enhanced ridging to the west of Greenland as well as near the Kara Sea / NE Europe. Split is preferred primarily because the regrouping process for the polar vortex is generally more prolonged, and so the resultant tropospheric blocking is often more protracted following splits. However, displacements have also occurred in strongly negative AO regimes, and have led to at least 40 day periods of robust tropospheric blocking. One also must examine whether or not the troposphere itself is conducive to the maintenance of blocking. Depending upon the answer, episodes post SSW could be longer or shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 66 has been showing up since like the 13th in the extended. I posted those in upstate ny a week ago. Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial Nice thoughts with that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivialI need to read up on 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I need to read up on 1966 I'll give it to you. My finals were postponed for a week....freshman year of college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I've been checking the GEFs progs for the thermal layout at the various sigmas from time to time; I'm not seeing much evidence for a 10 hPa warm event. There is, however, a moderate+ warm event over N Eurasia in the 100 hPa level (above the winter tropopause depth but indicative, nonetheless) - I suspect that is associated with recent planetary wave decay. The difference there? The former tends to precede SSW; the latter is another correlation to -AO not correlated with QBO - -AO is negative AO so ... But perhaps that source will begin picking that up in the modeling. So far, quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't see 1966 listed on that graphic...am I blind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't see 1966 listed on that graphic...am I blind?Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne.50 inch month in Reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll give it to you. My finals were postponed for a week....freshman year of college. I watched a special on the Blizzard of '93 the other day. They asked a guy from Syracuse what he thought of the storm and he said it was nothing compared to '66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think 66 was more of a New York storm, that's what I remember from the little I've read about. Jerry's got me wondering though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne. Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school. my first snow tunnels still remember 50 years later......... :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 50 inch month in Reading?The blizzard...not the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school.I know why it blew....hugged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yes sir I see (from top to bottom) 1-18-1983, 2-6-1978, 1-25-1958, 2-4-1960, 1-22-1998, 1-16-1981, 2-3-1980, 1-15-1958, 1-23-1981, and 1-28-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Through 1/11/16 for the month to date: BOS: +5.2 BDL: +4.6 PVD: +4.2 ORH: +4.9 For BOS, 39 of 42 days of met winter so far have been above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Through 1/11/16 for the month to date: BOS: +5.2 BDL: +4.6 PVD: +4.2 ORH: +4.9 For BOS, 39 of 42 days of met winter so far have been above normal. Based on the pattern ..going to be impossible to finish BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Scooter,,I know last week you really liked how things looked over the next 2-4 weeks. Are you still feeling that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Scooter,,I know last week you really liked how things looked over the next 2-4 weeks. Are you still feeling that way? Well we go right back to a more +AO look which stinks. This all started from tropospheric forcing from the Icelandic low, but in a base state that wants a +AO for the time being. So, I am not surprised we go right back to a +AO for now. However, the Pacific is actually a good look. I think it may try to get active again later in the 11-15 day and beyond, but I'm not going to speculate on snow. The thing is, you can only say so much about the overall look of a pattern. All these nuances of s/w's in the flow that can dictate getting skunked or getting slaughtered cannot be determined. With that said..it's definitely serviceable. I wouldn't say it's great, but it is one that will offer some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like the look going forward. We lose the -NAO which will make cutters more likely but a good pacific will give plenty of chances. We are probably going to get another big -AO block down the road though if the past is any indication. It would be very rare to have an initial event like this and not reload it down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 +PNA on the ensembles ? EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 +PNA on the ensembles ? EURO Yeah, even a -EPO look. And I agree with Will. I think with the stratospheric warming...it may argue for another -AO chance in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like the look going forward. We lose the -NAO which will make cutters more likely but a good pacific will give plenty of chances. We are probably going to get another big -AO block down the road though if the past is any indication. It would be very rare to have an initial event like this and not reload it down the line. SSW will do the trick. I think until then, its the NE show....then once the NAO comes back in response to the SSW, them ma goes out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The IO concerns really have diminished if the progs are right. I only see a very weak signal. On the other hand, the forcing near the dateline weakens too. So maybe I would guess that the pattern in the 11-15 day may stay that way for a little while anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.