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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I have question for whoever knows. This is the 18z GEFs 15 day total precipitation panel. Would this be a typical Nino winter precip look? I always thought the STJ would stream across Mexico then through the SE. Or is this a Northern dominated jet stream pattern?

gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_64.png

bump now that some Mets are awake
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yes peeling off the ITCZ. Just for Cali I thought a typical Nino had the Pineapple express

El-Nino.jpg

It is, but Cosgrove had a wonderful piece outlining that he had expected the STJ to skirt south of CA this winter, and he posted a composite of some other snowy el nino seasons that did the same.

Part of his rationale for going snowy.....maybe last October on his FB page?

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Starting to see signs of some real strong warming at 10mb over Asia and into NAMR at the end of the month. Enough for me to finally raise an eyebrow for once this season. The models have always been too bullish with warning in the stratosphere since 2013 so there is that, but we'll see how it goes.

Seems like all models also now pump up EPO ridging now as well.

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Starting to see signs of some real strong warming at 10mb over Asia and into NAMR at the end of the month. Enough for me to finally raise an eyebrow for once this season. The models have always been too bullish with warning in the stratosphere since 2013 so there is that, but we'll see how it goes.

Seems like all models also now pump up EPO ridging now as well.

Glad to see you more optimistic.

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I continue to like the January 20th-30th for the possibility of a sudden warming event. I thought for a brief time a couple weeks ago that there might be an elevated risk for a split (and that still cannot be ruled out); however, I'm still leaning toward a displacement, if a SSW is achieved in that period. My research regarding conducive precursor regimes and the concomitant time lag has been suggestive of peak wave activity flux in the January 20th-25th period, with a SSW being forced in that time frame or shortly thereafter. The developing robust Greenland blocking signature, which looks to peak over the coming week, is also a precursor noted in the literature for a potential displacement approximately 10 days following. This too, would argue for the January 20th-30th period.

 

Furthermore, prior cases have often featured a strong pulse of enhanced wave-1 activity about 3 weeks pre-event, with a follow-up wave-2 pulse about a week to 10 days before the event. I'm monitoring the latest wave amplitudes as it appears we will see the manifestation of more amplified wave-2 at the 10hpa level going forward. This would be consistent with the time lags/precursor regimes as well.

 

My thinking at this juncture is that the robust warming being indicated at the end of guidance is real, given the aforementioned evidence for precursor regimes to induce strong heat flux into the upper stratosphere by the expected time period (20th-30th).

 

We will see what transpires.

 

 

6plslu.png

 

 

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Tom I noticed the 10mb warming looked much more robust compared to 50mb. Also seems like this was more from the wave 2 pattern with Kara sea ridge. Am I correct that wave 2 patterns usually feature a ridge near Greenland or just west with another near Kara sea area? I had a paper on this, but I buried it somewhere in my links.

I also agree that IF it were to happen, it would be a displacement.

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