40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Right on par with 1958..... #notashock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Starting to get excited about the looks coming up. Of course there is always the risk of bad luck, but I like the look for the next 2-4 weeks. That's about all you can really say. The devil is in the details I guess. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Starting to get excited about the looks coming up. Of course there is always the risk of bad luck, but I like the look for the next 2-4 weeks. That's about all you can really say. The devil is in the details I guess. We shall see.my name is Humpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 20m 20 minutes ago nothing new in Wx guidance this am, several New Eng Blizzards forecast next 2 wks.. same forecast as last 2 wks eventually one will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It was nice to have the wintry temps all week to help set up the rain for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I have question for whoever knows. This is the 18z GEFs 15 day total precipitation panel. Would this be a typical Nino winter precip look? I always thought the STJ would stream across Mexico then through the SE. Or is this a Northern dominated jet stream pattern? bump now that some Mets are awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 bump now that some Mets are awake Is that another fetch well to the south coming from the PAC through the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Is that another fetch well to the south coming from the PAC through the GOM?yes peeling off the ITCZ. Just for Cali I thought a typical Nino had the Pineapple express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 bump now that some Mets are awake Steve I think the STJ is just a bit further south than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Steve I think the STJ is just a bit further south than normal. Thinking about it, if you took a typical Nino and amplify the split flow a bit, that's probably the precip anomaly you might expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 yes peeling off the ITCZ. Just for Cali I thought a typical Nino had the Pineapple express It is, but Cosgrove had a wonderful piece outlining that he had expected the STJ to skirt south of CA this winter, and he posted a composite of some other snowy el nino seasons that did the same. Part of his rationale for going snowy.....maybe last October on his FB page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Thinking about it, if you took a typical Nino and amplify the split flow a bit, that's probably the precip anomaly you might expect. Same reason why December was an more highly amplified template of December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Thinking about it, if you took a typical Nino and amplify the split flow a bit, that's probably the precip anomaly you might expect. Yeah agree. Granted I'm not at my laptop to really dive into it, sort of looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Steve I think the STJ is just a bit further south than normal.thanks guys, the Pac NW being wet seems odd too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 thanks guys, the Pac NW being wet seems odd too. Just enough GOAK trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Look at the precip pattern off the East Coast ,follows the Gulf Stream. A James special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just enough GOAK trough. Yeah, beat me to it. I was going to say that matches the EPS height/wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I am very ok with today's day 8-14 analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sh it gonna get real..strat anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Sh it gonna get real..strat anyone SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Starting to see signs of some real strong warming at 10mb over Asia and into NAMR at the end of the month. Enough for me to finally raise an eyebrow for once this season. The models have always been too bullish with warning in the stratosphere since 2013 so there is that, but we'll see how it goes. Seems like all models also now pump up EPO ridging now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Here is past WAF (click on element to change): http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html CFSR analysis on the CPC site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/ I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately. Cool. Thanks Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Starting to see signs of some real strong warming at 10mb over Asia and into NAMR at the end of the month. Enough for me to finally raise an eyebrow for once this season. The models have always been too bullish with warning in the stratosphere since 2013 so there is that, but we'll see how it goes. Seems like all models also now pump up EPO ridging now as well. Glad to see you more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am very ok with today's day 8-14 analogs Bizz of '78 and '66. I think the pattern has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Bizz of '78 and '66. I think the pattern has changed. 66 has been showing up since like the 13th in the extended. I posted those in upstate ny a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We are at a high opportunity time for a big storm or two. I really like the 16-18th as the nao rises. I also still think I see 2 inches or more in Tuesday eve. That system sped up from a few days ago to a tues pm system instead of Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I continue to like the January 20th-30th for the possibility of a sudden warming event. I thought for a brief time a couple weeks ago that there might be an elevated risk for a split (and that still cannot be ruled out); however, I'm still leaning toward a displacement, if a SSW is achieved in that period. My research regarding conducive precursor regimes and the concomitant time lag has been suggestive of peak wave activity flux in the January 20th-25th period, with a SSW being forced in that time frame or shortly thereafter. The developing robust Greenland blocking signature, which looks to peak over the coming week, is also a precursor noted in the literature for a potential displacement approximately 10 days following. This too, would argue for the January 20th-30th period. Furthermore, prior cases have often featured a strong pulse of enhanced wave-1 activity about 3 weeks pre-event, with a follow-up wave-2 pulse about a week to 10 days before the event. I'm monitoring the latest wave amplitudes as it appears we will see the manifestation of more amplified wave-2 at the 10hpa level going forward. This would be consistent with the time lags/precursor regimes as well. My thinking at this juncture is that the robust warming being indicated at the end of guidance is real, given the aforementioned evidence for precursor regimes to induce strong heat flux into the upper stratosphere by the expected time period (20th-30th). We will see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Tom, Scott....which is preferred....displacement, or split? I tend to prefer a split... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Tom I noticed the 10mb warming looked much more robust compared to 50mb. Also seems like this was more from the wave 2 pattern with Kara sea ridge. Am I correct that wave 2 patterns usually feature a ridge near Greenland or just west with another near Kara sea area? I had a paper on this, but I buried it somewhere in my links. I also agree that IF it were to happen, it would be a displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Tom, Scott....which is preferred....displacement, or split? I tend to prefer a split... I think split, but any warming or ridging that reverses the mean westerlies will have implications below it, in the troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.