CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think the key is what happens with the NAO. You can have a strong -AO and the NAO isn't all that negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 12z GEFS AO forecasts will also not be nearly as robust verbatim. Of course that is assuming models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 1969 hmmm Much stronger el nino hmm I'm not saying that we are going to see PD I.....don't get me wrong. But this is why I only went for normal to slightly above snowfall for sne. Long term model trends are good news for us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The best part of Feb 1969 was the late-blooming Miller B aspect. Day 5 not withstanding, don't expect that to be the theme this season like it was last year and in 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 AWT..We upslope .AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING ANDCONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THEQUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THELOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW0C BUT MARGINAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 AWT..We upslope .AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW 0C BUT MARGINAL. Congrats Union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 AWT..We upslope .AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW 0C BUT MARGINAL. Stinks that you only upslope on that direction... Not much of a benefit for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stinks that you only upslope on that direction... Not much of a benefit for snow It's gentle..but it happens on E flow type deals..Like that firehose event in march couple years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It's gentle..but it happens on E flow type deals..Like that firehose event in march couple years ago That was not upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow...upslope drizzle. Enjoy and take pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 AWT..We upslope .AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW 0C BUT MARGINAL. Congrats on your ESE upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That was not upslope. H85 firehose, upslope...same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 AWT..We upslope .AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW 0C BUT MARGINAL. It's a shame you'll be asleep for most of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Is this a pattern discussion, tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think the key is what happens with the NAO. You can have a strong -AO and the NAO isn't all that negative. All about the maturity of the NAO. There'll surely by positive height anomalies over Greenland, and the DS, but is it actually in true -NAO block form, or just an extension of ridging from the N Atl -- how significant is the cyclonic breaking of said ridge over the DS - and does it happen in time for the 1/17 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I have question for whoever knows. This is the 18z GEFs 15 day total precipitation panel. Would this be a typical Nino winter precip look? I always thought the STJ would stream across Mexico then through the SE. Or is this a Northern dominated jet stream pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 All about the maturity of the NAO. There'll surely by positive height anomalies over Greenland, and the DS, but is it actually in true -NAO block form, or just an extension of ridging from the N Atl -- how significant is the cyclonic breaking of said ridge over the DS - and does it happen in time for the 1/17 threat Yep. Love to see Sam I am agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yep. Love to see Sam I am agree.drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 drunk? Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Nomar laying it out https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/685642960499798016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Almost. Try harder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hope everyone saw the new parallel Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hope everyone saw the new parallel EuroDetails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Details?your hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 9" qpf, nice. Here we go 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 9" qpf, nice. Here we go 0z runs.um not qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 um not qpfJerry's favorite - snow accumulation probabilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 9" qpf, nice. Here we go 0z runs. 9" qpf on a winter model run would be heading towards a Tip bible busting signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Jerry's favorite - snow accumulation probabilities?weenie snow total,you should recognize the color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This may help a bit with the Pacific side pattern through the rest of winter. Chart based on http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/datos/EC.txt -OLR Anomalies for the period Nov 15 to Jan 5 have been centered a bit west of 82-83 and 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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