OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still on dial-up? I actually downgraded. I now get model forecasts through fax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I have a few some of his best ones saved on the computer.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think 17th on looks good for potential. All systems go on that. Whether or not we get nailed is another story, but the overall look is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think 17th on looks good for potential. All systems go on that. Whether or not we get nailed is another story, but the overall look is good.exactly what I said in our subforum ..plenty of time this early you never want to be in Bulls eye. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Judah Cohen's SAI correlated to AO theory is working like a charm this year it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential You've been steady as goes Sam. Not easy to do in your field, and really not easy to do with the twitterologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Judah Cohen's SAI correlated to AO theory is working like a charm this year it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Judah Cohen's SAI correlated to AO theory is working like a charm this year it seems. His theory correlates to strat, then leads to -AO. It's the opposite this year. I don't see it working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 His theory correlates to strat, then leads to -AO. It's the opposite this year. I don't see it working. We shall see. It seems there's a lot of good signs for the stratosphere going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The stratosphere part of his AO theory doesn't make sense to me. Why would SAI on the ground make a difference 30 miles up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The stratosphere part of his AO theory doesn't make sense to me. Why would SAI on the ground make a difference 30 miles up? The wave flux helps disturb the PV and break it up, leading to a SSW. Right now, the big Icelandic low really helped build this -AO. The strat is getting disturbed, but no SSW yet. This -AO is occurring with record cold in the strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 His theory correlates to strat, then leads to -AO. It's the opposite this year. I don't see it working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ?? I meant working right now at current time. Maybe it will in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ?? I meant working right now at current time. Maybe it will in Feb. I know what you mean...laughing at the situation, not you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thus far his theory has been operating from the inside out, so to speak...I would still bet on a SSW within the next few weeks, though. $hit is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The wave flux helps disturb the PV and break it up, leading to a SSW. Right now, the big Icelandic low really helped build this -AO. The strat is getting disturbed, but no SSW yet. This -AO is occurring with record cold in the strat. I thought it was the record kara ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I thought it was the record kara ridge? Yeah that was brought about from the Low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Man, buy that Icelandic low a round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 While individual storm details are a roll of the dice past 120 hrs, this is going to be the most impressive positive to negative AO shift on record from November-December to January. The storm details will get worked out later. ao.sprd2.gif In addition to that it probably it's probably the coldest flip from Dec to Jan in over 100 years. More importantly there's more than 1 snowstorm in this pattern over the next 15 days in the MA/NE. An active jet is taking shape and with all those high heights it's just a matter of time before 1 or 2 make a run. It's not a 1 and done type of pattern. The tale of two seasons is being written as we speak, now for the blizzard part. We wait. We verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Regarding Cohen's hypothesis, I think as long as a SSW is achieved this winter, the physics of the hypothesis will verify. If we take a year like 2009-10 for example, which I believe featured very high snow cover advance, the official SSW actually didn't occur until February 9th, 2010. But the stratosphere was perturbed well prior to that, and obviously we had the -AO in place from December onward. I think 2009-10 would be considered a verification of the hypothesis. As I've posted before, the AO is almost always negative prior to the SSW. One of the primary differences between this year and last year, IMO, is that the troposphere is much more conducive for the development of high latitude blocking. Secondly, I would argue the QBO state/direction and solar is more favorable than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 2009-2010 had everything going for a SSW though. My question is how can you say SAI is responsible? Waiting until Feb seems too late for verification. Even this year, I would say that if we did get a SSW, would that happen without that 930 Iceland beast? I think these are fair questions to ask. The -AO started from that really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 2009-2010 had everything going for a SSW though. My question is how can you say SAI is responsible? Waiting until Feb seems too late for verification. Even this year, I would say that if we did get a SSW, would that happen without that 930 Iceland beast? I think these are fair questions to ask. The -AO started from that really. Last time I'll ask you this year, promise! Are the new Euro monthlies out and how do they look? Since this was more for seasonal purposes, I thought it belonged in this thread vs. the model thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Last time I'll ask you this year, promise! Are the new Euro monthlies out and how do they look? Since this was more for seasonal purposes, I thought it belonged in this thread vs. the model thread. Thanks. I posted on the 46 day ensembles in NY ( Will become the new weeklies ) Jan 15- 25 VG Jan 25- Feb 5 - well pull back but never lose the higher heights in Canada or STJ , trough in the SE FEB 5 - 20 VG The break is not warm - N to AN but it`s been pushed back 5 days since last week . Pretty good look IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 VG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Very good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 2009-2010 had everything going for a SSW though. My question is how can you say SAI is responsible? Waiting until Feb seems too late for verification. Even this year, I would say that if we did get a SSW, would that happen without that 930 Iceland beast? I think these are fair questions to ask. The -AO started from that really. My thoughts are similar. Like many of our LR forecasting tools, some of them might be correlation / strong correlation without a proven causative link. When there are numerous conducive variables, how do we effectively isolate one of them? In 2009-10, we not only had the +SAI, but also conducive tropospheric indicators, a descending / easterly QBO, and the weakest solar activity seen in decades. So the question becomes: was the tropospheric -AO initiated due to one or all of the aforementioned factors? My guess is that the perfect storm of favorable ingredients led to the result, and they worked cooperatively. The SAI hypothesis seems to be based upon solid dynamics, but as you said, it's difficult to isolate that variable and prove causation. It may very well be that high snow cover years occur concurrently with another variable which is actually more responsible for inducing the tropospheric -AO. Certainly many unanswered questions. Going forward, in terms of this year, it looks like we continue to maintain a very elongated vortex over the next couple weeks w/ warmth pressing via the Aleutian ridge and on European side. Mostly wave-1 forced so far. This winter is a very interesting test case as we're in uncharted territory in a number of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Last time I'll ask you this year, promise! Are the new Euro monthlies out and how do they look? Since this was more for seasonal purposes, I thought it belonged in this thread vs. the model thread. Thanks. Haha. Haven't looked. I will today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 VG? Nice D5 clipper for you . Love how these vorts spin underneath these blocks in the M/R and look better as you get closer . If there is a thread for this I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With the Arctic Oscillation's beginning its descent toward forecast values of -4.000 or below over the next 4-7 days, opportunities for measurable snowfall should increase over parts of North America, particularly the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1950, there have been 10 cases during which the AO first fell to -4.000 or below during the period from January 15 +/- 10 days. With two exceptions, Boston, Detroit, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC all saw at least some measurable snowfall from the date the AO first fell to -4.000 through the following 30 days. Below is the latest AO forecast and statistics for those cases: Small changes in the Teleconnection Forecasts... - There is larger agreement among the GFS ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 to -4.000 toward mid-month, with somewhat fewer taking it below -5.000. The overall idea of the development of severe blocking remains unchanged. Today's AO figure was -2.758, which is the lowest it has been this winter. - The NAO was slightly negative. It has been positive for 37 of the first 39 days of meteorological winter or 95% of the time. In contrast, the AO has been positive 72% of the time so far. The NAO is forecast to go strongly negative. - The PNA remains positive. Consistent with a PDO+, the PNA+ has been the general rule this winter so far. The PNA has been positive for 82% of days and at or above +1.000 on 38% of the days. It is forecast to remain positive through the extended range, though one cluster of ensembles takes it to strongly positive levels and another cluster toward near neutral levels by the end of the ensemble forecast. All said, given climatology, the forecast sustained AO-/PNA+ pattern should lead to an increase in snowfall opportunities in the eastern U.S., with the largest increase over the baseline being focused on the Middle Atlantic region. Glad that Donny and I are one the same page. The show is in the mid atlantic this season, just how many tickets are made available to be distributed up the coast remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Glad that Donny and I are one the same page. The show is in the mid atlantic this season, just how many tickets are made available to be distributed up the coast remains to be seen. 1969 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.