powderfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads. Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 meh. we walk the line. There's been plenty of snowy years here with -nao. Just have to put it in the right spot. Yes that's true. Not every -NAO is a bad one. Just that winter...lol. I'm not sure but I think the winter of 2000-2001 was the one that St. John's got like 550cms. Wasn't that a -NAO season? We did alright here in Halifax that winter too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes that's true. Not every -NAO is a bad one. Just that winter...lol. I'm not sure but I think the winter of 2000-2001 was the one that St. John's got like 550cms. Wasn't that a -NAO season? We did alright here in Halifax that winter too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk yes it was a -nao season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments. People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver.Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south.We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south. We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO. I guess my point is that 09-10 may have been mentioned due to it being recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night? I didn't look today, but it looked possible yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anyways, I think the whole idea of being scared of a negative north Atlantic oscillation is based on 2009/2010. I understand why, but as been said numerous times before by myself well and others, it was really bad luck that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night? ...AREAS OF BLACK ICE/ICY ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND INTO MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING METRO WEST BOSTON. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...WILLIMANTIC...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD AND WEST GREENWICH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I didn't look today, but it looked possible yesterday. Driving all over today and the upper valley definitely held the cold better than MPM land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night? Yeah, possible. There's also a signal for some tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anyways, I think the whole idea of being scared of a negative north Atlantic oscillation is based on 2009/2010. I understand why, but as been said numerous times before by myself well and others, it was really bad luck that year.i want to see more of a 50/50 trapped under the block actually. not having one opens the door to rain issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i want to see more of a 50/50 trapped under the block actually. not having one opens the door to rain issues Agreed. Would also provide more confluence which coastal areas need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver. I mean, ideally I would want a neg NAO a little less robust, but sign me up for 2010. I would take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I mean, ideally I would want a neg NAO a little less robust, but sign me up for 2010. I would take my chances. I live in northern NJ and although 2009-2010 early on was tough we got hammered in February. The models show one monster of a block so I agree with you , I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It looks like another round of warming coming up later in the model period at 50-10mb. That will be interesting to watch. Tom, Do you have a link for WAF charts or those cFSR strat wind products? Here is past WAF (click on element to change): http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html CFSR analysis on the CPC site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/ I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here is past WAF (click on element to change): http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html CFSR analysis on the CPC site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/ I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If the Euro weeklies and parallel 45 day Ens have a clue its game on for quite a stretch. I love the look and Feb really has that classic STJ into a cold air mass look, should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments. Most definitely, Whether some want to hear it or not, Hate when its referenced because it was an extreme -NAO and this one does not look to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is text of a tweet from Sam Lillo. Cool to see how he lays out what he thinks the progression would be. I think if the NAO really doe go negative, that might be our saviour for early February. As Pac jet buckles, +WPO breaks down, Wrn NA ridging retrogrades, CWB over Quebec -> -NAO, + active STJ = Major NE US storm threat 1/16-17 Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thanks man! Nothing here has changed.Still on dial-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still on dial-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential That's an interesting period, We miss those elongated sam accumulation maps here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's an interesting period, We miss those elongated sam weenie here........... Speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Speak for yourself I have a few some of his best ones saved on the computer.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I have a few some of his best ones saved on the computer.....lol If they are from his early days on Eastern, that is child porn creepah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If they are from his early days on Eastern, that is child porn creepah It was pretty funny actually and unintentional obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It was pretty funny actually and unintentional obviously What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Oz GFS is much quicker with secondary development for the storm on the 13th. Really winds up east of Boston, something to watch for you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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