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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads.

Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

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meh. we walk the line. There's been plenty of snowy years here with -nao. Just have to put it in the right spot.

Yes that's true. Not every -NAO is a bad one. Just that winter...lol. I'm not sure but I think the winter of 2000-2001 was the one that St. John's got like 550cms. Wasn't that a -NAO season? We did alright here in Halifax that winter too.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver.

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People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver.

Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south.

We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO.

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Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south.

We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO.

I guess my point is that 09-10 may have been mentioned due to it being recent.

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Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night?

  

...AREAS OF BLACK ICE/ICY ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING

ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND INTO MUCH

OF MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING METRO

WEST BOSTON. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSOR

LOCKS...WILLIMANTIC...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...

CAMBRIDGE...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD AND WEST GREENWICH.

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Anyways, I think the whole idea of being scared of a negative north Atlantic oscillation is based on 2009/2010. I understand why, but as been said numerous times before by myself well and others, it was really bad luck that year.

i want to see more of a 50/50 trapped under the block actually. not having one opens the door to rain issues
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I mean, ideally I would want a neg NAO a little less robust, but sign me up for 2010.

I would take my chances.

I live in northern NJ and although 2009-2010 early on was tough we got hammered in February. The models show one monster of a block so I agree with you , I'll take my chances.

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It looks like another round of warming coming up later in the model period at 50-10mb. That will be interesting to watch.

Tom,

Do you have a link for WAF charts or those cFSR strat wind products?

 

 

Here is past WAF (click on element to change):

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html

 

 

CFSR analysis on the CPC site:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/

 

 

I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately.

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Here is past WAF (click on element to change):

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html

 

 

CFSR analysis on the CPC site:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/

 

 

I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

 

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

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Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

 

Most definitely, Whether some want to hear it or not, Hate when its referenced because it was an extreme -NAO and this one does not look to be the case

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This is text of a tweet from Sam Lillo.  Cool to see how he lays out what he thinks the progression would be.  I think if the NAO really doe go negative, that might be our saviour for early February.

 

As Pac jet buckles, +WPO breaks down, Wrn NA ridging retrogrades, CWB over Quebec -> -NAO, + active STJ = Major NE US storm threat 1/16-17

 

Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential

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