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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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It looks like you made a pretty good call so far for late January and possibly February, the way things are progressing right now. And yea, just going off climo for strong and "super" Ninos, March normally sucks as far as cold and snow

Thanks man.

 

You did a pretty good job with el nino, as it did in fact get a bit stronger than most, including myself, had anticipated.

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Superstorm 93 did a very interesting writeup in the NYC Longrange thread.  Talks about similarities to 09-10 set up...pulls in Uli, and the AO drop, the retrographing GOA trough.  Very interesting.  Perhaps a jan-Feb 2010 pattern but a bit further north?

 

I'm still scarred from 09-10

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still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday.  I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up.

 

You can't get up and down. I see that a lot too. Steady as she goes. My opinion has always been less confident in the -AO and/or SSW and Feb being more dependent on Pacific. So far so good. But, this -AO starting from a big 930 Icelandic low, has changed things for now. I also remain open to the -AO/SSW idea, because I can see why it may happen too. I think it would also be silly for me to say no completely to it. 

 

In the meantime, nevermind the SSW crap. Just focus on next two weeks. 

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still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday.  I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up.

The only caveat with HM is he is a virtual open stream of consciousness.....don't read everything he posts, you will go mad.

 

Check in with him once every few days, like a model during quiet times.

 

Posters are resources....just like models, know how to use them, when, while being cognizant of their strengths and deficits.

 

I love the pattern because I have since August....regardless of the tenor of HM's latest tweet.

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still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday.  I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up.

 

Twitter is great for information if you like vague, ambiguous generalities.

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You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year.

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You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year.

At least you've had more than one event. One 6" event, that's it over here. Terrible.

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You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year.

 

Perhaps I should swing up to your neck of the woods for a stretch, see how the other half lives.

 

Also, I'd like to be there when you crack.

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they're down because they don't see it on the actual model run.   my experience, whether hobbyists or mets: if the ensuing model runs don't show the idea playing out ...down comes the mood.  

 

i wouldn't discount mid week just yet.  though ... with stockholm syndrome in full effect, it's probably too difficult to imagine otherwise. 

 

the ggem from today winds up a west atlantic tempest that is not outside the realm of possibilities, and also correctable to more (or less) impact - duh at this time range.  contrasting, the gfs could very well be too progressive as it tends to carry along a tendency for too much longitude "stretching" in that time range anyway. 

 

hard to discount this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html    ...I don't think that kind split up with the pv can  ... with ridge arcs through the polar region, take place without some sort of consequence...eventually.  regardless of the stratospheric state, the ao is dunked!  that whole causality relationship is really not necessary anyway for sustaining a -ao as we've seen that before. not worried about it - never was.  it'll break down, eventually. 'course... everything does.  but in so far as what's presented now and is progged by all camps, we deal with a real -ao.  

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Me too...lol. It was a dreadful experience. Now when I hear about blocking or -NAO, I think of that period. Someone tell me 09-10 is not gonna be walking through the door this year.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah when it's +RN in Caribou and +SN in CT for a storm system in Jan, That's a huge problem
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