40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It looks like you made a pretty good call so far for late January and possibly February, the way things are progressing right now. And yea, just going off climo for strong and "super" Ninos, March normally sucks as far as cold and snow Thanks man. You did a pretty good job with el nino, as it did in fact get a bit stronger than most, including myself, had anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Superstorm 93 did a very interesting writeup in the NYC Longrange thread. Talks about similarities to 09-10 set up...pulls in Uli, and the AO drop, the retrographing GOA trough. Very interesting. Perhaps a jan-Feb 2010 pattern but a bit further north? I'm still scarred from 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm still scarred from 09-10 We'd both take it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We'd both take it again. Definitely, I don't see having the bad luck of that retro low screwing the pooch for the remainder of that winter here, A bit different set up this go round, That -NAO was on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Suppression while never ruled out, is the least of my worries. I wouldn't sweat that. Not if that trough axis happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday. I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday. I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up. You can't get up and down. I see that a lot too. Steady as she goes. My opinion has always been less confident in the -AO and/or SSW and Feb being more dependent on Pacific. So far so good. But, this -AO starting from a big 930 Icelandic low, has changed things for now. I also remain open to the -AO/SSW idea, because I can see why it may happen too. I think it would also be silly for me to say no completely to it. In the meantime, nevermind the SSW crap. Just focus on next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday. I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up. The only caveat with HM is he is a virtual open stream of consciousness.....don't read everything he posts, you will go mad. Check in with him once every few days, like a model during quiet times. Posters are resources....just like models, know how to use them, when, while being cognizant of their strengths and deficits. I love the pattern because I have since August....regardless of the tenor of HM's latest tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I see a lot of clipper type events in this -NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 still up in the air reading other mets...HM and his crew sound a little down today after being up yesterday. I refuse to get sucked in....too many runs with a good set up. Twitter is great for information if you like vague, ambiguous generalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Twitter is great for information if you like vague, ambiguous generalities. Exactly....its a very visceral, impulsive medium. Like everyone and everything, gotta know how to use it/them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll get excited when I see the next five paragraph post from Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll get excited when I see the next five paragraph post from Tip. I get excited when I find time to read it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year. If was so so here in WSNE as well. We will get our time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If was so so here in WSNE as well. We will get our time though. It was akin to what the Baltimore area experienced in Feb 2010. Nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year. At least you've had more than one event. One 6" event, that's it over here. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The Zeus/Forky posting frequency should have an index for the changing of a weather pattern in the winter... Well, I'm certainly not here in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 At least you've had more than one event. One 6" event, that's it over here. Terrible. I've had 1 2.5" event, can a couple of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You guys in SNE will always have last winter's epic memories. Those of us up here only had an average year followed by this season's crapfest. So far the only thing holding us together is the recent nickle and dime events to start the New Year. Perhaps I should swing up to your neck of the woods for a stretch, see how the other half lives. Also, I'd like to be there when you crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 they're down because they don't see it on the actual model run. my experience, whether hobbyists or mets: if the ensuing model runs don't show the idea playing out ...down comes the mood. i wouldn't discount mid week just yet. though ... with stockholm syndrome in full effect, it's probably too difficult to imagine otherwise. the ggem from today winds up a west atlantic tempest that is not outside the realm of possibilities, and also correctable to more (or less) impact - duh at this time range. contrasting, the gfs could very well be too progressive as it tends to carry along a tendency for too much longitude "stretching" in that time range anyway. hard to discount this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html ...I don't think that kind split up with the pv can ... with ridge arcs through the polar region, take place without some sort of consequence...eventually. regardless of the stratospheric state, the ao is dunked! that whole causality relationship is really not necessary anyway for sustaining a -ao as we've seen that before. not worried about it - never was. it'll break down, eventually. 'course... everything does. but in so far as what's presented now and is progged by all camps, we deal with a real -ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm still scarred from 09-10 Me too...lol. It was a dreadful experience. Now when I hear about blocking or -NAO, I think of that period. Someone tell me 09-10 is not gonna be walking through the door this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Me too...lol. It was a dreadful experience. Now when I hear about blocking or -NAO, I think of that period. Someone tell me 09-10 is not gonna be walking through the door this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah when it's +RN in Caribou and +SN in CT for a storm system in Jan, That's a huge problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Long range still looks pretty decent IMO. Pacific has been best area of improvement over last 3-4 days. We want to see the trough stay more in western GOAK or even better..the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't want to put all my eggs in the -Nao basket. I think the benefits it provides are overrated. Hopefully the pacific improves. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads. I would take that setup every time. Just got unlucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads. let's hope. OSUMet probably won't be a big fan of this setup in his new stomping grounds. Might not be pretty for St. John's. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 let's hope. OSUMet probably won't be a big fan of this setup in his new stomping grounds. Might not be pretty for St. John's. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk meh. we walk the line. There's been plenty of snowy years here with -nao. Just have to put it in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Personally, I love the reshuffle...it could turn out poorly, obviously. But we weren't going to do anything with the mean northerly flow at 500mbs we were in all month of december in St. John's. It was our driest December on record. Bring on the subtropical jet and the storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.