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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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This week has felt like winter and when it's dry, it's not much fun. Let's roll with the stj already!

 

We need a good, torrential rain to wash my car. Hell knows I'm not gonna do it. No time. Life as a fashion mogul is too demanding.

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Scooter:

"Well, that 1065 isn't mb from high pressure...it's the count of weenies that have plunged"

 

Hey I went for a good Feb too. Still holding out. My only difference, is that Jan will have a more -AO than I thought. Whether or not that maintains into Feb is a bit of a question mark, but hopefully a good sign. I think 50mb strat is showing signs of another warming possible in NPAC again.  Only downfall is if IO fires up. Right now, I don't think it's a huge player. 

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Hey I went for a good Feb too. Still holding out. My only difference, is that Jan will have a more -AO than I thought. Whether or not that maintains into Feb is a bit of a question mark, but hopefully a good sign. I think 50mb strat is showing signs of another warming possible in NPAC again.  Only downfall is if IO fires up. Right now, I don't think it's a huge player. 

I'm only kidding.

In  reality, the pattern changing as done nothing to undermine your prior assertions.

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Hey I went for a good Feb too. Still holding out. My only difference, is that Jan will have a more -AO than I thought. Whether or not that maintains into Feb is a bit of a question mark, but hopefully a good sign. I think 50mb strat is showing signs of another warming possible in NPAC again.  Only downfall is if IO fires up. Right now, I don't think it's a huge player. 

What I remember from Don S, is that when we get such a low AO, usually a 4-6 week period of blocking ensues.  My optimism about next Wed is based on the steep fall of the AO and the NAO...I think that means we trend better deeper slower.

 

BTW, I always see the return of Zeus as a winter/snow bellweather.  I pair that up with a decrease in Forky posts, which always happens when we turn towards colder and snowier.

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If nothing else, at least we have a more wintry appeal next Wednesday through Friday with the colder temperatures and northern stream energy producing at least some type of light snowfall.

With a total of 0.5" of sleet so far this winter, a pattern with frequent clippers is fine by me. Increase the frequency of those and maybe one ends up bombing out and giving us more...

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What I remember from Don S, is that when we get such a low AO, usually a 4-6 week period of blocking ensues.  My optimism about next Wed is based on the steep fall of the AO and the NAO...I think that means we trend better deeper slower.

 

BTW, I always see the return of Zeus as a winter/snow bellweather.  I pair that up with a decrease in Forky posts, which always happens when we turn towards colder and snowier.

The Zeus/Forky posting frequency should have an index for the changing of a weather pattern in the winter...

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Superstorm 93 did a very interesting writeup in the NYC Longrange thread.  Talks about similarities to 09-10 set up...pulls in Uli, and the AO drop, the retrographing GOA trough.  Very interesting.  Perhaps a jan-Feb 2010 pattern but a bit further north?

He isn't the only one to make that analogy.

Another pro met from the DC area did...

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4-6 weeks sounds about right because I do not foresee a huge March.

It looks like you made a pretty good call so far for late January and possibly February, the way things are progressing right now. And yea, just going off climo for strong and "super" Ninos, March normally sucks as far as cold and snow
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