Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,615
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

Looks like the GEFS lost a lot of the members that brought the AO/NAO positive that they were showing a yesterday and the day before.

I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure.M

 

I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure.

Yes one of the reasons i feel much more optimistic after Monday.  Cutters often reshuffle the deck for us....extreme example 1978

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think what might happen is that the clipper on the 12th performs well, as the NAO will be moving negative during this time.  We often get overperformers during NAO phase changes.  Then the clipper bombs and feeds the NAO some more and that sets the stage for the southern stream the next weekend.  We'll see what happens after that.  Sometimes those situations become overwhelming cold and suppression depression (week of the 18th), but with an engaged southern stream, if the block doesn't move too far south and west in SW Greenland and the Davis Straits we might all be in on more action the week of the 18th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lined shot into the bullpen for a game-tying HR for Donnie Ballgame....outstanding post, reaffirming what many had already believed to be true, SSW or no SSW:

 

Extreme Blocking Forecast...

 

To date, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has averaged +0.973 during the 2015-16 meteorological winter. 76% of days have seen the AO positive and 59% of days have seen the AO at or above +1.000. On 8% of days, the AO has been +3.000 or above. Its highest value has been +4.503, which was reached on December 22, 2015. The AO has been negative on 24% of days and at -1.000 or below on 16% of days. Its lowest value so far is -2.299, which was reached on January 5, 2016.

 

However, the latest GFS ensembles are forecast the AO to plunge. There is strong agreement among the ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 or below.

 

Such extreme values are uncommon. However, such extreme values have become somewhat more common since 2000.

 

Such extreme blocking would suggest troughing in eastern North America. More importantly, should such extreme blocking develop, it would provide a strong signal of a blocky February. In short, even as the most recent December proved to be an autumn, not winter month, an extreme AO-, should it develop, could offer the strongest signal so far that there will be plenty of opportunity for winter weather from mid-January onward. North America and Europe would both see such opportunities if past extreme January blocking cases are representative.

 

AO01062016.jpg

 

AO01062016_2.jpg

 

AO01062016_3.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny thing is this is all tropospheric induced. It would be nice to keep this going into Feb. Per Mike Vs plots, it appears some convection east f dateline may develop and IO convection may not be as strong. This perhaps may aid in better PNA and even -AO going forward, but I wouldn't have high confidence yet. It's something to watch. All this under an ice cold strat too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still strongly believe that we will indeed average a negative AO in the D-M mean come hell or high snowpack.

 

 

I still think we'll do it for DJF.

 

Regarding the stratosphere, as long as we continue to perturb the vortex via strong wave activity and force elongation, that's sufficient for the maintenance of a fairly conducive tropospheric regime.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think one of these waves coming from the arctic is bound to phase with the S Jet and explode off the coast aided by the Gulf Stream inducing a sub 960mb low that stalls off Cape Cod MA paralyzing civilization from nyc to bos for a week with 30-50" snowfall toals.

Folks tease James, and rightfully so, but I do expect a blockbuster event(s)....like I said, doesn't happen, then my outlook is a failure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Folks tease James, and rightfully so, but I do expect a blockbuster event(s)....like I said, doesn't happen, then my outlook is a failure.

I truly appreciate his positive outlook. Just a fun jab, nothing personal.

And yes, I also think there is something big on the horizon. I've had good success down here in El nino blocking patterns.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...