Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the GEFS lost a lot of the members that brought the AO/NAO positive that they were showing a yesterday and the day before. I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 High Lat blocking FTW unfortunately does not translate IMBY snow. Times like this I keep reminding self if you bring the body the mind will slowly come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure.M I have a theory that the strong cutter induces a a neg NAO. Often times its the cutter that sets the ball in motion, wam air surges towards Greenland, cuts off induces higher pressure. Yes one of the reasons i feel much more optimistic after Monday. Cutters often reshuffle the deck for us....extreme example 1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 High Lat blocking FTW unfortunately does not translate IMBY snow. Times like this I keep reminding self if you bring the body the mind will slowly come around. It increases the odds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It increases the odds though Yeah they go from 0% to 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What? This doesn't even make sense. It's probably more beneficial for my area though. His location was Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think what might happen is that the clipper on the 12th performs well, as the NAO will be moving negative during this time. We often get overperformers during NAO phase changes. Then the clipper bombs and feeds the NAO some more and that sets the stage for the southern stream the next weekend. We'll see what happens after that. Sometimes those situations become overwhelming cold and suppression depression (week of the 18th), but with an engaged southern stream, if the block doesn't move too far south and west in SW Greenland and the Davis Straits we might all be in on more action the week of the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Having an opinion firmly grounded in science spares you the agony of having emotion guided by diurnal model fluctuations. Whether that opinion ultimately proves right or wrong, that is true. Marginal science with the small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 His location was Florida. Yep, just realized that and deleted my post. Having blocking is more important for my area than for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yep, just realized that and deleted my post. Having blocking is more important for my area than for New England. Obviously, As well as the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Marginal science with the small sample size. That is inclusive of all outlooks, though. Level playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It increases the odds though VERY marginally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Have to believe that STJ is going to make up for lost time relatively shortly. I get the suppression worry completely.....just have to keep in mind that we have never had a huge system whiff sne in a strong el nino seasons...at least not that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Have to believe that STJ is going to make up for lost time relatively shortly. That would be nice, because it hasn't been all to juicy for us up to this point. But it would be nice if it starts to kick in during the next arctic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Lined shot into the bullpen for a game-tying HR for Donnie Ballgame....outstanding post, reaffirming what many had already believed to be true, SSW or no SSW: Extreme Blocking Forecast... To date, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has averaged +0.973 during the 2015-16 meteorological winter. 76% of days have seen the AO positive and 59% of days have seen the AO at or above +1.000. On 8% of days, the AO has been +3.000 or above. Its highest value has been +4.503, which was reached on December 22, 2015. The AO has been negative on 24% of days and at -1.000 or below on 16% of days. Its lowest value so far is -2.299, which was reached on January 5, 2016. However, the latest GFS ensembles are forecast the AO to plunge. There is strong agreement among the ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 or below. Such extreme values are uncommon. However, such extreme values have become somewhat more common since 2000. Such extreme blocking would suggest troughing in eastern North America. More importantly, should such extreme blocking develop, it would provide a strong signal of a blocky February. In short, even as the most recent December proved to be an autumn, not winter month, an extreme AO-, should it develop, could offer the strongest signal so far that there will be plenty of opportunity for winter weather from mid-January onward. North America and Europe would both see such opportunities if past extreme January blocking cases are representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still strongly believe that we will indeed average a negative AO in the D-M mean come hell or high snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still strongly believe that we will indeed average a negative AO in the D-M mean come hell or high snowpack. It is suddenly clear how right you are going to be.i love the next two weeks and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 To much blocking though could send us into the 09-10 suppression area...we certainly don't need that. But I'm excited to hear that we are heading in a positive direction. Thanks for sharing Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It is suddenly clear how right you are going to be.i love the next two weeks and beyond Looks good, but lets see how it plays out. Could always have some bad luck, but I think it should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I wouldn't worry about suppression. The -AO is due to heights north of AK. It's not really a massive -NAO. That's all left over from the big Kara sea ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I wouldn't worry about suppression. The -AO is due to heights north of AK. It's not really a massive -NAO. That's all left over from the big Kara sea ridge. Well then good things are happening the next 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Funny thing is this is all tropospheric induced. It would be nice to keep this going into Feb. Per Mike Vs plots, it appears some convection east f dateline may develop and IO convection may not be as strong. This perhaps may aid in better PNA and even -AO going forward, but I wouldn't have high confidence yet. It's something to watch. All this under an ice cold strat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well then good things are happening the next 2 weeks! Always luck involved too. Can't be too confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still strongly believe that we will indeed average a negative AO in the D-M mean come hell or high snowpack. I still think we'll do it for DJF. Regarding the stratosphere, as long as we continue to perturb the vortex via strong wave activity and force elongation, that's sufficient for the maintenance of a fairly conducive tropospheric regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Always luck involved too. Can't be too confident. I think one of these waves coming from the arctic is bound to phase with the S Jet and explode off the coast aided by the Gulf Stream inducing a sub 960mb low that stalls off Cape Cod MA paralyzing civilization from nyc to bos for a week with 30-50" snowfall toals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Runnaway, did James kidnap YOU??? James is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think one of these waves coming from the arctic is bound to phase with the S Jet and explode off the coast aided by the Gulf Stream inducing a sub 960mb low that stalls off Cape Cod MA paralyzing civilization from nyc to bos for a week with 30-50" snowfall toals. Folks tease James, and rightfully so, but I do expect a blockbuster event(s)....like I said, doesn't happen, then my outlook is a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Runnaway, did James kidnap YOU??? James is that you? I have a feeling the euro will show something big soon. I really like the pattern upcoming, I haven't seen ridging like the ens show in quite some time. In danbury, ct we tend to do better in miller A blocking episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I agree, you'd think there would be one anyway, with the latent heat that's in that water of the east coast...it's way up there, and that's not even the gulf stream itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Folks tease James, and rightfully so, but I do expect a blockbuster event(s)....like I said, doesn't happen, then my outlook is a failure. I truly appreciate his positive outlook. Just a fun jab, nothing personal. And yes, I also think there is something big on the horizon. I've had good success down here in El nino blocking patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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