Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Always a great write up Isotherm.  And so easy to understand.  Thank You for posting, and writing in a style that is easy to comprehend, even when discussing a complicated idea such as what you describe above.

 

 

Yea Tom, I posted yesterday reminding folks that a SSW, though optimal, is not necessary to achieve a negative AO baseline throughout February of an el nino season.

There are other constructive interferences of such an occurrence.

Potential SSW still very much in the mx late month.

 

Thanks for the enlightenment regarding the precursor considerations....I frankly do not know much about that, so simply deferred to the good doctor.

 

 

Good stuff Tom. Cohen seems confusing at times.

 

 

Thanks guys. Was a bit surprised reading parts of it. We will see what happens. We may or may not achieve an official SSW, but regardless, the rest of the winter doesn't hinge upon its occurrence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period.

 

That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there.

 

Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period.

 

That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there.

 

Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern.

 

Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's also based on the GEFS too which want to break down the NAO faster than other guidance. It's definitely unclear to me how the Atlantic looks in about 2 weeks.

That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope.

 

Yeah once the PV lobe relaxes just a bit and lets the longwave trough breath a little bit I think we'll have a chance or two in there.

 

 

 

That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast?  

 

 

Yeah it doesn't look like a full blown block, but certainly serviceable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can finally see something of interest on the GEFS mean SLP/500hpa heights on the 17th. That's probably the window to watch unless the shortwave next Wednesday/D7 manages to amplify or dig a bit more than progged.

I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png

 

I can't see much there. Here's what I'm referring to - you can see a slight kink to the 500mb height contours (colored) and a weak sfc low well offshore.

post-40-0-14042000-1452041335_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable.

Having an opinion firmly grounded in science spares you the agony of having emotion guided by diurnal model fluctuations.

Whether that opinion ultimately proves right or wrong, that is true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable.

I think that was for the concern afterwards. I mean who knows....it could get mild. It's not a cold look, but perhaps enough cold for snow, especially inland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...