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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Always a great write up Isotherm.  And so easy to understand.  Thank You for posting, and writing in a style that is easy to comprehend, even when discussing a complicated idea such as what you describe above.

 

 

Yea Tom, I posted yesterday reminding folks that a SSW, though optimal, is not necessary to achieve a negative AO baseline throughout February of an el nino season.

There are other constructive interferences of such an occurrence.

Potential SSW still very much in the mx late month.

 

Thanks for the enlightenment regarding the precursor considerations....I frankly do not know much about that, so simply deferred to the good doctor.

 

 

Good stuff Tom. Cohen seems confusing at times.

 

 

Thanks guys. Was a bit surprised reading parts of it. We will see what happens. We may or may not achieve an official SSW, but regardless, the rest of the winter doesn't hinge upon its occurrence.

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Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period.

 

That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there.

 

Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern.

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Euro ensembles still liking that 1/17-1/18 period.

 

That is what was mentioned earlier when I was discussing the larger scale pattern with a bit of a trough signal at the 50/50 position with longwave trough over EC and ridging out west (even if not incredibly prolific like 2015) along with a cold antecedent airmass. There's good ingredients in place there.

 

Keep in mind how far out that is. However, I'd be fairly surprised if we didn't have at least one solid threat inside of 5 days in this pattern.

 

Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope.

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That's also based on the GEFS too which want to break down the NAO faster than other guidance. It's definitely unclear to me how the Atlantic looks in about 2 weeks.

That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast?  

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Seems like that's the window when the trough sharpens up a bit to the west of us where we could get something of note. Let's hope.

 

Yeah once the PV lobe relaxes just a bit and lets the longwave trough breath a little bit I think we'll have a chance or two in there.

 

 

 

That's some interesting look thumb ridge on the ec near day 10...Not sure if it's a real -nao...perhaps more the result of the downstream ridge from the sub-PV over the northeast?  

 

 

Yeah it doesn't look like a full blown block, but certainly serviceable.

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You can finally see something of interest on the GEFS mean SLP/500hpa heights on the 17th. That's probably the window to watch unless the shortwave next Wednesday/D7 manages to amplify or dig a bit more than progged.

I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png

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I'm bad with ens mean, trying to learn. Is this what you're referring to. If so, what am I missing?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png

 

I can't see much there. Here's what I'm referring to - you can see a slight kink to the 500mb height contours (colored) and a weak sfc low well offshore.

post-40-0-14042000-1452041335_thumb.png

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considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable.

Having an opinion firmly grounded in science spares you the agony of having emotion guided by diurnal model fluctuations.

Whether that opinion ultimately proves right or wrong, that is true.

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considering 3 days ago Mets were saying torch day 15, now day 12 they look great especially well positioned for some storminess, very doable.

I think that was for the concern afterwards. I mean who knows....it could get mild. It's not a cold look, but perhaps enough cold for snow, especially inland.

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