Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 He was referring to what I mentioned yesterday and today. I just said have to make sure ridge isn't too far east. I didn't see anything to torchy though. Just typical oscillations.hes looking at 2m temps, sorry with that 5 h and 850 look thats not AN look on the ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Not seeing how this translates to AN.if correct, in fact I would say it's going to correct even further BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Not seeing how this translates to AN.if correct, in fact I would say it's going to correct even further BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 hes looking at 2m temps, sorry with that 5 h and 850 look thats not AN look on the ENS. It is verbatim. You will have some warming aloft from any system ejecting out of the southwest and also ahead of any low moving across srn Canada. But behind those srn Canadian systems is some cold too. I don't know if it will be like that verbatim, but Those are the oscillations I was referring too. It's still an ok pattern with a nice ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Going the wrong way again? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 10m 10 minutes ago Just like the analogs said, including the hated Jan MJO ph8, warm anomalies stick over NE US in Jan on ensembles. He ostensibly thinks this is 2001-'02 all aver again, but if asked will not admit that. Best met that I know of, but he almost seems duplicitous at times in that once he tweets something, a tweet countering what he just said is spewed forth like 10 minutes later. He was relieved to the see the PV weakening, now this. I just think he processes so much info at once that his tweets aren't always congruent with one another. Regardless, January is a serviceable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It is verbatim. You will have some warming aloft from any system ejecting out of the southwest and also ahead of any low moving across srn Canada. But behind those srn Canadian systems is some cold too. I don't know if it will be like that verbatim, but Those are the oscillations I was referring too. It's still an ok pattern with a nice ridge out west. Sounds like you are implying cold-cut-cold-cut-rinse-repeat, 1980's style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That's not what I meant at all. If you look at the GFS op, you'll see what I mean. It's just different from bitter cold delivery from last Feb. Ok, that is why I asked. What am I looking for on the GFS? Obviously, I know what i expect, but do not have anything resembling the synoptic prowess that you and Will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ok, that is why I asked. What am I looking for on the GFS? Obviously, I know what i expect, but do not have anything resembling the synoptic prowess that you and Will have. If you loop the GFS, see how those systems move across srn Canada and thicknesses warm Ahead of it? That's also typical in Nino. Also note the cold behind it. The GEFS look pretty nice at the end and imply a gradual step down deal which I can see too. But overall I don't see a torch danger for now. The ridging out in western Canada in Siberia is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 If you loop the GFS, see how those systems move across srn Canada and thicknesses warm Ahead of it? That's also typical in Nino. Also note the cold behind it. The GEFS look pretty nice at the end and imply a gradual step down deal which I can see too. But overall I don't see a torch danger for now. The ridging out in western Canada in Siberia is impressive. Obviously not Feb 2015, but this strikes me as a serviceable pattern in terms of snowfall; however it will be tough to achieve much depth in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Obviously not Feb 2015, but this strikes me as a serviceable pattern in terms of snowfall; however it will be tough to achieve much depth in sne. Yes that's all I mean. If timing is right, it could be fruitful. I thought it had the possibility of being active later in the 11-15 and beyond. Better cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 If you loop the GFS, see how those systems move across srn Canada and thicknesses warm Ahead of it? That's also typical in Nino. Also note the cold behind it. The GEFS look pretty nice at the end and imply a gradual step down deal which I can see too. But overall I don't see a torch danger for now. The ridging out in western Canada in Siberia is impressive. I see that. Do the low heights INVOF Greenland have anything to do with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yes that's all I mean. If timing is right, it could be fruitful. I thought it had the possibility of being active later in the 11-15 and beyond. Better cold too. I'd always envisioned January as a transition month, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I see that. Do the low heights INVOF Greenland have anything to do with that? Yeah I think so. Blocking would shunt all that south. Last year the vortex was so far south and west that it just didn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yes that's all I mean. If timing is right, it could be fruitful. I thought it had the possibility of being active later in the 11-15 and beyond. Better cold too.[/quote Scott, are you thinking mid to late Jan we will see a much favorable pattern for the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Sounds like you are implying cold-cut-cold-cut-rinse-repeat, 1980's style.doubt we see cutters but 1981 is the primary analog, cold and dry with nickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I doubt we see cutters after the Tuesday system, however trough is too far east after the 2nd to do anything but bring cold air over our region, best chance for snow would be from OES if winds can align correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yesterday and last night you were hung-ho for monster Nor'easters, today just cold and dry? That's a big change in ideas. Where's all the big storm talk today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Oh wow if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Wrote a new post if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yes that's all I mean. If timing is right, it could be fruitful. I thought it had the possibility of being active later in the 11-15 and beyond. Better cold too.[/quote Scott, are you thinking mid to late Jan we will see a much favorable pattern for the east? Not sure about much more, but based on ensembles, I'd say it will get better. Details on little clippers and things like that aren't gonna show in the means, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Wrote a new post if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4? Great write up Isotherm!! Thank You...It's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm liking the ensembles over the past several days. We go to a pattern of seasonable temperatures and some activity. Exactly what you want in January. First weekend of 2016 looks pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47483-the-coming-pattern-change-dec-26/ BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 euro eps looks gradient like if anything. And yeah there is a ridge bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47483-the-coming-pattern-change-dec-26/ BOOM Ray run through 12z euro day 10 thru 15 out near AK .Look how far west that NEG heads and watch how it pulls the ridge with the higher heights W in Canada. I would expect day 11 thru 15 to turn out colder as those heights may relax near the NE as the euro gets towards day 10 . It seems to be a constant error on the Euro where it just washes the trough out on the EC in the L/R. -EPO/+PNA like to force HP through the lakes and the models miss it. The new day 5 thru 10 are much colder than its 10 to 15 from 5 days ago. I showed down in NY this AM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ray run through 12z euro day 10 thru 15 out near AK . Look how far west that NEG heads and watch how it pulls the ridge with the higher heights W in Canada. I would expect day 11 thru 15 to turn out colder as those heights may relax near the NE as the euro gets towards day 10 . It seems to be a constant error on the Euro where it just washes the trough out on the EC in the L/R. -EPO/+PNA like to force HP through the lakes and the models miss it. The new day 5 thru 10 are much colder than its 10 to 15 from 5 days ago. I showed down in NY this AM . yes times a thousand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It seems to be a constant error on the Euro where it just washes the trough out on the EC in the L/R. . I've noticed this too the last 2 years. I'm not sure it's a bias of the model or just struggling with the patterns we've been in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z GFS continues trend of pouring a large amount of arctic jet energy into the eastern US trough, problem remains the orientation and location of the trough axis. Too far east to matter in anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Just for an FYI, the Tug Hill Plateau will get feet upon feet of snow this upcoming week, from New Year's Day through the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 So there is conflicting guidance on first week of Jan? Some with cold and some with AN...what are the thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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