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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I'm disappointed that he hasn't recognized the greatness of the three states to his north for the winter virtues he seeks.

 

Or his own state...just move west about 30 miles from his current location and he will increase his average days with snow depth >1" to over 70.

 

 

But yeah, NNE is is just about the best spot in the country outside of the western mountains to retain snowpack...maybe the Arrowhead of MN and UP of Michigan as exceptions.

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VT torches often at people living level though . Id hit NNH NME

West of the Greens and the CT River Valley yes but take where I live at 1250', we have decent retention and I average close to 100" a year or at least that's what the old KMPV observer averaged before automation. I would argue that his description is almost the textbook manner that we go about winter. Is it better further NE? No doubt but it's pretty good around here too.
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VT torches often at people living level though . Id hit NNH NME

 

You may be referring to western Vt- Champlain Valley (Chittenden and Addison counties) plus Rutland county to the south- about a third of the state's population and the CT river valley (both low elevation areas).  North Central Vt and Notheast Vermont- well, if you love snow, that's whole different world. The towns east of the Champlain Valley and north of Rt. 2 are generally very snowy and cold.

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Does Chicago get more snow than us in January? I never had that impression. They're upstream from the lakes so they only get les on a long nne fetch (was there once for a fun one).

I didn't mean that.

I screwed up. Let me try one more time: Chicago average temp is less than BOS in January. Therefore they would do better with snow retention.

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You may be referring to western Vt- Champlain Valley (Chittenden and Addison counties) plus Rutland county to the south- about a third of the state's population and the CT river valley (both low elevation areas). North Central Vt and Notheast Vermont- well, if you love snow, that's whole different world. The towns east of the Champlain Valley and north of Rt. 2 are generally very snowy and cold.

Mid March NNH NME retain snow better but NVT is good too. Latitude and wetter snow up in NME
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I screwed up again. Let me try one more time: Chicago average temp less than BOS in January. Therefore they would do better with snow retention.

 

They do mildly better in winter for retention IIRC. I think BOS was something like 38 days with snow cover and ORD is in the mid 40s. (maybe Chris can look it up...as I have no idea where to find that info these days on the ghastly NCDC site...'81-'10 probably doesn't have it anyway or it;s wrong for BOS, since they stopped keeping snow cover data..but their older normals was 38 or so...and that was Logan airport...definitely higher just away from there)

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Mid March NNH NME retain snow better but NVT is good too. Latitude and wetter snow up in NME

I'd say that's a generally fair point. But by mid-March with a good winter, I'm content with the mountains holding their own, and the valleys moving toward spring.

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I screwed up again. Let me try one more time: Chicago average temp less than BOS in January. Therefore they would do better with snow retention.

 

They are pretty similar in that respect. Very similar records for 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches on the ground. Also nearly identical dates for last day with 1 inch on the ground.

 

BOS does have far more long stretches with snow on the ground though. ORD tends to have similar records, but the 10th longest, and 15th longest can't compete with BOS.

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They do mildly better in winter for retention IIRC. I think BOS was something like 38 days with snow cover and ORD is in the mid 40s. (maybe Chris can look it up...as I have no idea where to find that info these days on the ghastly NCDC site...'81-'10 probably doesn't have it anyway or it;s wrong for BOS, since they stopped keeping snow cover data..but their older normals was 38 or so...and that was Logan airport...definitely higher just away from there)

 

Pretty close, BOS on average has their first 1 inch depth on 12/10 (ORD 12/1), and it melts on average by 3/18 (ORD 3/19).

 

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They are pretty similar in that respect. Very similar records for 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches on the ground. Also nearly identical dates for last day with 1 inch on the ground.

BOS does have far more long stretches with snow on the ground though. ORD tends to have similar records, but the 10th longest, and 15th longest can't compete with BOS.

being in Boston last month at our GTG I wondered how the hell they dealt with all that snow last year, man what a disaster that place is to drive in downtown. With 4 feet of snow otg I cant imagine. Ask Garth, I couldn't get out of there fast enough.
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cities blow for snow retention,cripes they truck it away, lol. Seriously not even a comparison, think water content

I work in the financial district of BOS, and even there this passed Feb., you'd never know we were having a 100 inch month. Streets and sidewalks were totally clean, so I agree with you there. But in the residential areas of the city, like Somerville, or Southie, the snowpacks were evident.

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Pretty close, BOS on average has their first 1 inch depth on 12/10 (ORD 12/1), and it melts on average by 3/18 (ORD 3/19).

 

 

xmACIS says 36 days on average with 1 inch on the ground at BOS, and 43 for ORD. But BOS is missing a bunch of data, not sure if that's tainting the mean.

 

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Pretty close, BOS on average has their first 1 inch depth on 12/10 (ORD 12/1), and it melts on average by 3/18 (ORD 3/19).

 

 

 

The normals used to list "days with depth >=1" ....essentially average number of days with snow cover in winter.

 

BOS was something like 38, Reading coop was 57 maybe? and ORH was around 70. His closest coop is Reading...I'd bet he would have a hard time finding a lot of places in the midwest that average more days with snow cover than that.

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xmACIS says 36 days on average with 1 inch on the ground at BOS, and 43 for ORD. But BOS is missing a bunch of data, not sure if that's tainting the mean.

 

 

Yeah that's the stat I'm looking for. That is almost certainly tainted a bit if it's '81-'10. No snow depth data after 1990s...so no prolific 2000s and yet we still keep the putrid 1980s in the record.

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The normals used to list "days with depth >=1" ....essentially average number of days with snow cover in winter.

 

BOS was something like 38, Reading coop was 57 maybe? and ORH was around 70. His closest coop is Reading...I'd bet he would have a hard time finding a lot of places in the midwest that average more days with snow cover than that.

 

At DVN is always seemed to be we'd get snow, then a combination of sublimation, wind, and warmth would gradually erode it down to 1 inch or a trace, then we'd do it all over again. A lot of our cold did come with pretty bare ground.

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You know the season's going down the chute when you have pages in the pattern discussion thread of Jerry's dumps and whether it's better to live in Cleveland, Chicago or NNE. and Will's not chastising for the non-pattern posts.

I am though.

 

Let's do our best to keep this about the pattern. I know sometimes we go off on a tangent and start talking about stats or current snowfall, but I'd like to keep steering this vessel back on course.

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Very provocative read from Cohen in the AER blog today.

 

Ironically, the -AO in place seems to be prohibiting any increase in energy propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere, effectively ensuring no SSW until at least the end of January.

Energy transfer was sufficient to flip the pattern, but not enough to vanquish the PV, as everyone knows.... since it was was so potent to begin with.

 

Now we are left to ponder whether the colder pattern will remain for most of the balance of the season,  or abate.

Cohen thinks the pattern will hold because it did the past two seasons, and the state of the PV is now similar:

 

As we have been discussing in the blog the stretched and elongated polar vortex predicted for the first half of January is very similar to the configuration of the polar vortex of the past two January’s.  Though in January 2014 no SSW occurred while in January 2015 a significant SSW occurred with record warm temperatures in the polar stratosphere.  Yet both produced repeated Arctic outbreaks across the Eastern United States and overall cold three-month averages from January through March.  Therefore we continue to feel that temperatures will average below normal for much of Southeastern Canada and the Eastern United States for the three-month period January through March.  The models predict that the cold air will be focused in the Plains, surprisingly west for an El Niño winter.  However typically the focus of the cold air slowly shifts eastward as the winter progresses.  Similarly we continue to predict overall below normal temperatures for northern Eurasia.  However the configuration of the polar vortex did not favor cold in Western Europe the past two winters and similarly it does not so far this winter.  But the AO is likely to be more negative this January than the previous two, increasing the chances for Arctic outbreaks into Western Europe eventually.  It continues to be a challenging forecast for this winter and probably nowhere more so than in Western Europe.  Our three-month temperature forecast for January-February-March 2016 is shown at the end of the blog.

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The stratosphere so far has been well modeled. It's locked and loaded near the poles. The temporary -AO has been a tropospheric response that no long range model can predict. Such is the nature of chaos in the atmosphere. Still looks like no SSW until at least Feb and I have doubts on that. In the meantime, I have been focused on the Pacific and have mentioned that all along. That's what we should be focusing on. That seems to be a much better predictor for us this season.

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