40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yea, all set with Jan 2004....I'll take Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sometimes I feel like I am on an island by myself but then in comes Scooter and Will on a 60 foot yacht loaded with babes and beers to rescue me. I just dont get the angst. I mean I kind of get it. It's not February 2015 on the models. But we're gonna have to let that go in a strong Nino. It is hard to maintain a strongly negative EPO in mod to strong Ninos. But there's still some NAO blocking trying to linger and PNA is positive...granted likely in pulses rather than an epic Yukon Territory ridge. But the pattern is active and not a furnace. This is talking euro ensembles. GEFS are definitely somewhat warmer. If we get the Aleutian low that's sort of invading the GOA in the LR to trend another 1000 miles east into a negative PNA position, then I'll lead the panicky herd right over the cliff myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The snowiest forecasts this season had sne near normal snowfall, so keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sometimes I feel like I am on an island by myself but then in comes Scooter and Will on a 60 foot yacht loaded with babes and beers to rescue me. I just dont get the angst. I mean nobody is going to go begging in a +1 scenario as long as we get the QPF. January average is 29 degrees at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I mean nobody is going to go begging in a +1 scenario as long as we get the QPF. January average is 29 degrees at BOS. I think Feb 2013 was like +0.5 at ORH but 44.4" of snow. I mean typically it is below average when we get big snow but it's not so lopsided that people should freak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well there seems to be a disconnect. The worry and angst is over the final 10 days of the month when modeling is bringing back the Pig and +EPO. If that happens the worries can turn into reality. The next 2 weeks or so are when we are expecting to cash in . No worry there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yea, all set with Jan 2004....I'll take Jan 2005. Can I get an amen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well there seems to be a disconnect. The worry and angst is over the final 10 days of the month when modeling is bringing back the Pig and +EPO. If that happens the worries can turn into reality. The next 2 weeks or so are when we are expecting to cash in . No worry there I'm very concerned. Now, I'm finding out that anything I get in the next 2 weeks will vanish last week in Jan. Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well there seems to be a disconnect. The worry and angst is over the final 10 days of the month when modeling is bringing back the Pig and +EPO. If that happens the worries can turn into reality. The next 2 weeks or so are when we are expecting to cash in . No worry there There was no disconnect. We were talking about the end of the euro ensembles. Maybe it trends worse but I was fine with them verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well that's the thing in forecasting. The goal is if you are going to be wrong, only be wrong once. Why change now to have your original forecast verify in the end? Then you would be wrong twice essentially. Unless you are sure that things have changed, you are right it's silly to punt now. Very good post. Never thought of it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well there seems to be a disconnect. The worry and angst is over the final 10 days of the month when modeling is bringing back the Pig and +EPO. If that happens the worries can turn into reality. The next 2 weeks or so are when we are expecting to cash in . No worry there Its almost a month out. 4 days ago armageddon was modeled....probably warms back up, but my $ is on it being transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 There was no disconnect. We were talking about the end of the euro ensembles. Maybe it trends worse but I was fine with them verbatim.Other guidance has trended more unfavorable. The thinking that the second half of Jan and all thru Feb was going to be the best period MAY end up being a good 15-20 days in mid Jan before things go back the other way, but that remains TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Other guidance has trended more unfavorable. The thinking that the second half of Jan and all thru Feb was going to be the best period MAY end up being a good 15-20 days in mid Jan before things go back the other way, but that remains TBD GEFS is the other guidance. If you want to worry there is always something to worry about. You can always worry things will trend worse. There is nothing to stop anyone from that. So it's pretty pointless at this range. It could just as easily trend better when you are discussing a time range where model guidance has little skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GEFS is the other guidance. If you want to worry there is always something to worry about. You can always worry things will trend worse. There is nothing to stop anyone from that. So it's pretty pointless at this range. It could just as easily trend better when you are discussing a time range where model guidance has little skill. Exactly, what is the point of worrying about modeling at one month lead....it always flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm very concerned. Now, I'm finding out that anything I get in the next 2 weeks will vanish last week in Jan. Horrible. Sarcasm, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm gonna shut my eyes and block my ears and believe in the 45 day Santa Claus forecast on Accuweather until it changes into something I don't like. Looks pretty decent all the way out on that thing. Whatever they're smoking now, I like it. In real life it does look good for the next few weeks. Let's hope there is a snow even or twelve in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I mean I kind of get it. It's not February 2015 on the models. But we're gonna have to let that go in a strong Nino. It is hard to maintain a strongly negative EPO in mod to strong Ninos. But there's still some NAO blocking trying to linger and PNA is positive...granted likely in pulses rather than an epic Yukon Territory ridge. But the pattern is active and not a furnace. This is talking euro ensembles. GEFS are definitely somewhat warmer. If we get the Aleutian low that's sort of invading the GOA in the LR to trend another 1000 miles east into a negative PNA position, then I'll lead the panicky herd right over the cliff myself. I got a similar vibe as the rest of you for the end of the EPS. It wasn't rainbow dendritic unicorns, but it does look more active and near normal. Like you said, if we can avoid the GOA low combined with the uber -PNA like last month we should at least see more action. I'm all set with 588dm hgts on the east coast at least until June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? Just needs to be 32F through the column and you're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just needs to be 32F through the column and you're in business. Well I'd prefer -12 to -18oC where my best omega is, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah the DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sarcasm, I hope.Sort of, yes. Although one pet peeve is snow that melts right away, which almost illigitimizes a good storm for me. Part of the fun of a good storm is enjoying the good aesthetics of it. I prefer persistent snowcover, to rolling green hills in the middle of January.3" that lasts for 2 weeks is better than 2' that's gone in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sort of, yes. Although one pet peeve is snow that melts right away, which almost illigitimizes a good storm for me. Part of the fun of a good storm is enjoying the good aesthetics of it. I prefer persistent snowcover, to rolling green hills in the middle of January. 3" that lasts for 2 weeks is better than 2' that's gone in 24 hours. 2'? Really? 2' is a rather uncommon occurrence. Even if it disappears, appreciate every minute of that storm. I know what you mean, but you can fart and get 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's almost impossible to disappear 2 feet of snow in 2 weeks in mid-winter in interior SNE anyway. It happens, but really rare. A torchy pattern after a 2 foot snowstorm (kind of like the 2 weeks after Feb 2013) will still leave plenty on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sort of, yes. Although one pet peeve is snow that melts right away, which almost illigitimizes a good storm for me. Part of the fun of a good storm is enjoying the good aesthetics of it. I prefer persistent snowcover, to rolling green hills in the middle of January. 3" that lasts for 2 weeks is better than 2' that's gone in 24 hours. I'll take 2' for a start in a snow season that lasts from Nov 1 to April 30 with 12" + refreshers every week. However, that would just about cripple things in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If I get to Jan 20th with only one inch of snow than I may have to take a look at my prediction of near to slightly above normal snowfall across the interior but we all know how a few weeks of epicosity can change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's almost impossible to disappear 2 feet of snow in 2 weeks in mid-winter in interior SNE anyway. It happens, but really rare. A torchy pattern after a 2 foot snowstorm (kind of like the 2 weeks after Feb 2013) will still leave plenty on the ground. January 1996 wants to know what happened to that beautiful 38" depth at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 January 1996 wants to know what happened to that beautiful 38" depth at BDL It is taboo to mention the 2nd half of January 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GEFS is the other guidance. If you want to worry there is always something to worry about. You can always worry things will trend worse. There is nothing to stop anyone from that. So it's pretty pointless at this range. It could just as easily trend better when you are discussing a time range where model guidance has little skill. Great post!! Thanks for keeping it real, instead of this total BS from the usual suspects!! Last year I believe Boston had .3 inches at this juncture. Not saying the same last week of January and February from last winter is walking in. But December 2015 isn't either. Roosta said it perfectly a page back when he said go back a year and look at the posts, it's the same bogus from most of the same posters! And if December does come back, I'll like it better than this frigid crap-who needs this single digit temp bologny!! Bring on the storms and 30 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2'? Really? 2' is a rather uncommon occurrence. Even if it disappears, appreciate every minute of that storm. I know what you mean, but you can fart and get 3".I don't care how common/uncommon it is. A good old fashion 2-4"/3-6" storm, followed by another inch or 2, then a few days of highs around 20, then an 8" storm, with normal cold that follows to keep it around for awhile, and so on, is good enough to keep me happy. I'm,looking for longetivity in terms of snow and cold. My favorite winter of all time was '02/'03 because it was so consistently cold and snowy for such a long time, with lots of small-medium sized storms, and 1 big ticket stirm ( mid Nov.- early April). Last winter was great, but only for 5 weeks. I don't care about how big the storms are or depth. If anything, tracking bigger storms is less desirable since they rarely come to fruition.I don't need, or even want epicosity....I just want normal. Seasons in seasons, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 January 1996 wants to know what happened to that beautiful 38" depth at BDL I'll take a 96 even if it melts away so quickly. Snow to me is half tracking, half experiencing. It would be Different if I lived in CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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