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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Granted I haven't given it my top priority to analyze as rum punch flows through my veins, but it doesn't look that hideous. The 11-15 that is. You don't want a Death Star, but if I knew it would be active, I wouldn't be too worried. Of course, it's very difficult to say how active.

Its the period after that where we revert back to more Dec like pattern .. Just cooler version. See texts
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I saw them. I don't care about bone cold. I care more about qpf in the cold season. It definitely relaxes quite a bit afterwards which has been mentioned for a week.

yep and temps are fine,where this torch talk stems from is odd to say the least. Ryan saw EPO relax and immediately posted torch, could be trolling but its really odd.
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The plan all along was for everyone to have conceded the first half of winter, now here we are, 2 weeks into met winter, and folks are jumping because we haven't piled up snow and do not look to in the immediate future.

Crazy hobby we have.

You seem surprisingly fine to punt all of December and January. I don't think you can hold it against some folks if that isn't their ideal winter though.

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You seem surprisingly fine to punt all of December and January. I don't think you can hold it against some folks if that isn't their ideal winter though.

My point was more that people fell for that carrot that modeling dangled......not that everyone should love punting most of met winter.

There was always a decent shot that January would not produce much of anything, and I tried to convey that in my outlook by not expecting much until at least the third week of January.

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I saw them. I don't care about bone cold. I care more about qpf in the cold season. It definitely relaxes quite a bit afterwards which has been mentioned for a week.

Yeah I'm also not a big fan of the huge cold, I sort of like where we are. Normal temps or even above with some messy systems possible, we'll take our chances. I just know that December torch isn't coming back so there will be snow chances even in above normal patterns (as long as it's only +3 and not +10).

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My point was more that people fell for that carrot that modeling dangled......not that everyone should love punting most of met winter.

There was always a decent shot that January would not produce much of anything, and I tried to convey that in my outlook by not expecting much until at least the third week of January.

Ah I misinterpreted it a bit then. My bad. I just saw the NBD and thought you were saying it's no big deal to punt until February.

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True, but it would also be idiotic of me to melt weeks before I had even outlooked much of anything.

Of course. Stick to your guns, not hating at all.

I'm still patient but I don't want to rely on an epic Feb to do the trick. So I'm hoping we get something in this great pattern that's been advertised before it possibly relaxes.

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True, but it would also be idiotic of me to melt weeks before I had even outlooked much of anything.

Yeah good point, haha. Can't make a forecast and then melt when things go according to plan even if as a snow weenie it's not what you want. Fair point and explains why you seem so confident.

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I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine.

The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too.

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Maybe it goes to $hit and I, along with some others crash and burn.

Possible, but its far to early to entertain that.

 

Well that's the thing in forecasting. The goal is if you are going to be wrong, only be wrong once. Why change now to have your original forecast verify in the end? Then you would be wrong twice essentially.

 

Unless you are sure that things have changed, you are right it's silly to punt now.

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I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine.

The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too.

And I'm saying this as someone who needs a little more cold than most on here.

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Well that's the thing in forecasting. The goal is if you are going to be wrong, only be wrong once. Why change now to have your original forecast verify in the end? Then you would be wrong twice essentially.

 

Unless you are sure that things have changed, you are right it's silly to punt now.

Good post.

Read my mind.

 

Believe me, I won't stick to my guns just to be stubborn.....the moment that I think my thoughts are in trouble, I'll blog it, post it.....everyone will know.

I'm not there yet....not that everyone is waiting in my every breath, but you know what I mean.

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I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine.

The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too.

That's my kind of winter, im not a pack guy. So I'll take my chances with marginal events as long as it keeps coming.

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I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine.

The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too.

Sometimes I feel like I am on an island by myself but then in comes Scooter and Will on a 60 foot yacht loaded with babes and beers to rescue me. I just dont get the angst.
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Should go back and read 2 weeks prior to all hell breaking loose last year. Bet dime to dollar the comments would be almost identical from the same unnamed posters. Many of the doubters, fencers you could copy and past right into this thread and not tell the difference.....just sayin.....

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