Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Quoted for posterity.. I think that may come back to bite you.We'll find out soon enough. All i can say..it better snow in the next 2 weeks or it's ****'s creekyou remind me of an old lady. Always worried. I am just looking forward to the next two weeks to see what can transpire. The pattern will relax and it may even warm but no way in hell is a torch anywhere. Again I will bet on a Pos PNA Neg AO Neg NAO in NE any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Zonal flow and +EPO. It's an ugly look , but likely wrong. Would put cold snowy Feb forecasts in peril to start the month Take a look at March 1958. I do not want to roll the dice with a bad Pacific, but there is a precedent for the Atlantic to save the day. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 4h4 hours ago You can see the beginnings of the next strat Aleutian High pulse coming at the end of GEFS, but let's see how EPS looks first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 8h8 hours ago And while GOA troughs aren't the coldest patterns at that moment, they lead to classic second halves, e.g. 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 9h9 hours ago Winter fans, don't fear the Gulf of Alaska trough. It's a great Niño wave that helps build a more traditional -NAO mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 A part of me is glad that the early January flip isn't sticking because now my outlook will verify better. #patienceisawinningvirtue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Take a look at March 1958. I do not want to roll the dice with a bad Pacific, but there is a precedent for the Atlantic to save the day. We'll see what happens. Funny, I hadn't even seen the tweet below when I made the post above. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 8h8 hours ago And while GOA troughs aren't the coldest patterns at that moment, they lead to classic second halves, e.g. 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Stop freaking out.....everyone's perspective is warped because it looked like we were going to cash in early, but we aren't. NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like the day 8-10 pattern we are going into according to the EURO and GFS, H5 heights explain a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern, with a -EPO. Storm central will bring us a nor'easter at the benchmark as PV is over Hudson Bay favoring building east coast heights into the Maritimes. This is a classic storm on the coast look. Snow lovers don't fret over 11-15 day pattern while the 8-10 day pattern looks amazing, focus on one at a time. Yes I follow into the trap of looking past certain things for the storm, but this one looks to produce as axis is much further west than this trough today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The plan all along was for everyone to have conceded the first half of winter, now here we are, 2 weeks into met winter, and folks are jumping because we haven't piled up snow and do not look to in the immediate future. Crazy hobby we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Funny, I hadn't even seen the tweet below when I made the post above. fuk the GOAK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is how I see it going down the next ten days, first storm goes into NNE with snow, rain for coastal SNE and mix in interior SNE, followed by an out to sea storm which missed the cold air until where it brings Downeast ME and Nova Scotia a good sized snowstorm. then the third and fourth storm potentials either morph into one singular major storm, or two separate weaker versions of the storm that pile up the snow for the 13/14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Even JB Jr. PB GFI is now conceding last 10 days of Jan is warm Last time you get a shout out . The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles ) from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago . However , I am not sure how long it lasts and or it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10th - 18th and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY with that ENSO state , so a pull back is not a killer . However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound . There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways Does not look like 98 to me in anyway . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Last time you get a shout out . The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles ) from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago . However , I am not sure how long it lasts and to it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10- 18 and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY with that ENSO state so a pull back is not a killer . However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound . There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways Does not look like 98 to me in anyway . Same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Last time you get a shout out . The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles ) from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago . However , I am not sure how long it lasts and or it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10th - 18th and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY with that ENSO state , so a pull back is not a killer . However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound . There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways Does not look like 98 to me in anyway . That was a compliment my man . WhooshWeeklies roast us week 4 in the means unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That was a compliment my man . Whoosh Weeklies roast us week 4 in the means unfortunately Thank you . Week 4 is AN . I want to see the 46 day ensembles . Not that I trust anything past week 3 in any pattern , I just want to match the 500s vs Thrs and see which way those POS are moving in the means as we get closer . Will get a better idea if it`s going towards it seasonal or diverging . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Btw 58 had a massive SSW in late Jan that we aren't getting this year. BIG difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Btw 58 had a massive SSW in late Jan that we aren't getting this year. BIG difference To this point , its central basin heat / forcing/warm Dec and NEG in the SE in early/mid JAN are similar . Never exactly alike . Yes there was a SSW in late Jan that just helped with a great FEB . I have never been on the strat warm guy , top down , bottom up , there are those better at identifying it than I . Will wait on that , if that doesn`t happen then the analog diverges . Sometime one gets you only so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 To this point , its central basin heat / forcing/warm Dec and NEG in the SE in early/mid JAN are similar . Never exactly alike . Yes there was a SSW in late Jan that just helped with a great FEB . I have never been on the strat warm guy , top down , bottom up , there are those better at identifying it than I . Will wait on that , if that doesn`t happen then the analog diverges . Sometime one gets you only so far . He has no clue whether we get a SSW end of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 my biggest concern has been precip since Sept. Was told over and over thats the least of our issues. I think we need some juice to get this thing started. The cold will be here, cold enough for sure. Still like the 16th 17th, was never all ga ga for the 11th 12th dealio. Could still lay a layer down just meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 What a turn of events in here. I will wait to call a ratter until I see the whites of its lifeless eyes. However, I'm starting to entertain the idea now after getting excited for nice changes that now to be short lived and/or muted. Things can turn on a dime though. We had the same panicked ones calling for a ratter last year only a week before the greatest winter stretch we will probably ever experience - so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 He has no clue whether we get a SSW end of Jan oh ok GINX . Tommy and John have been good on these down by us . I have yielded to them . I am more PAC influenced when putting together my ideas . ( it all matters ) but we have overcome a bad Atlantic at times in NYC. But if the bad PAC is bad , I just pull the shades down . I can`t believe we get out of the 10 -18 period without at least one lobe of energy rolling under the vortex and popping up inside 5 days as the EC is so warm . I just want to ignore these long Miller As the EPS see 12 days out , the good one sneak up on you IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 BTW..we likely go thru mid point of met winter with 1 inch at BDL/BOS. Obviously a big coastal can happen..but a lower end snowfall year is becoming more and more likely. Ryan's stats for Nino years and warm Dec back that up. Maybe this year is different,..we can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 BTW..we likely go thru mid point of met winter with 1 inch at BDL/BOS. Obviously a big coastal can happen..but a lower end snowfall year is becoming more and more likely. Ryan's stats for Nino years and warm Dec back that up. Maybe this year is different,..we can hope BOS at 0.7"?Pure stats argue for a below normal year - maybe even much below if we don't cash in on something in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 BOS at 0.7"? Pure stats argue for a below normal year - maybe even much below if we don't cash in on something in the next few weeks. If that's the case we basically have to hope for an 83 type storm. That would be the only way to avoid a complete dud. I went under 25 BDL and BOS and under 35 here and think those look pretty good right now. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Boston last year on this date only had 4". So put that in your pipe. Just relax will ya, maybe read more and post less. Reading as in go to COMET and take a few lessons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Looks like maybe inch at home it seems. Would be 2" on season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We lose the -epo from about 276 hours onwards on the EPS. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Granted I haven't given it my top priority to analyze as rum punch flows through my veins, but it doesn't look that hideous. The 11-15 that is. You don't want a Death Star, but if I knew it would be active, I wouldn't be too worried. Of course, it's very difficult to say how active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's a meltdown on here. Pull yourselves together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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