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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Quoted for posterity.. I think that may come back to bite you.We'll find out soon enough. All i can say..it better snow in the next 2 weeks or it's ****'s creek

you remind me of an old lady. Always worried. I am just looking forward to the next two weeks to see what can transpire. The pattern will relax and it may even warm but no way in hell is a torch anywhere. Again I will bet on a Pos PNA Neg AO Neg NAO in NE any day.
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Take a look at March 1958.

I do not want to roll the dice with a bad Pacific, but there is a precedent for the Atlantic to save the day.

We'll see what happens.

 

Funny, I hadn't even seen the tweet below when I made the post above.

 

 

And while GOA troughs aren't the coldest patterns at that moment, they lead to classic second halves, e.g. 1958

 

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I like the day 8-10 pattern we are going into according to the EURO and GFS, H5 heights explain a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern, with a -EPO.  Storm central will bring us a nor'easter at the benchmark as PV is over Hudson Bay favoring building east coast heights into the Maritimes.  This is a classic storm on the coast look.  Snow lovers don't fret over 11-15 day pattern while the 8-10 day pattern looks amazing, focus on one at a time.  Yes I follow into the trap of looking past certain things for the storm, but this one looks to produce as axis is much further west than this trough today and tomorrow.

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This is how I see it going down the next ten days, first storm goes into NNE with snow, rain for coastal SNE and mix in interior SNE, followed by an out to sea storm which missed the cold air until where it brings Downeast ME and Nova Scotia a good sized snowstorm.  then the third and fourth storm potentials either morph into one singular major storm, or two separate weaker versions of the storm that pile up the snow for the 13/14th.

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Even JB Jr. PB GFI is now conceding last 10 days of Jan is warm

 

 

Last time you get a shout out .

 

The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles )  from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago . 

 

However , I am not sure how long it lasts and or it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10th  - 18th  and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY with that ENSO state  , so a pull back is not a killer .

 

However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound . 

 

There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways  Does not look like 98 to me in anyway . 

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Last time you get a shout out .

 

The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles )  from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago . 

 

However , I am not sure how long it lasts and to it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10- 18 and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY  with that ENSO state so a pull back is not a killer .

 

However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound . 

 

There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways  Does not look like 98 to me in anyway . 

Same page.

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Last time you get a shout out .

The soon to be new weeklies ( the 46 day ensembles ) from a week ago said we would break after the 20th . It is down in the NY thread from over a week ago .

However , I am not sure how long it lasts and or it`s extent . But we do turn cold from the 10th - 18th and it would be hard to run anything wire to wire especially down in NY with that ENSO state , so a pull back is not a killer .

However if it is cold/dry and warms up just in time as SLP heads your way then I am sure that`s just salt in the wound .

There will be 2 camps . Does this return or was it really just 10 days and the ENSO event will rule the day . I like the former . Looks like 58 to me in a few ways Does not look like 98 to me in anyway .

That was a compliment my man . Whoosh

Weeklies roast us week 4 in the means unfortunately

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That was a compliment my man . Whoosh

Weeklies roast us week 4 in the means unfortunately

 

Thank you . Week 4 is AN . I want to see the 46 day ensembles . Not that I trust anything past week 3 in any pattern , I just want to match the 500s vs Thrs and see which way those POS are moving in the means as we get closer .

 

Will get a better idea if it`s going towards it seasonal or diverging . 

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Btw 58 had a massive SSW in late Jan that we aren't getting this year. BIG difference

 

To this point , its central basin heat  / forcing/warm Dec and NEG in the SE  in early/mid JAN are similar . Never exactly alike .

Yes there was a SSW in late Jan that just helped with a great FEB .

 

I have never been on the strat warm guy , top down , bottom up , there are those better at identifying it than I .

Will wait on that , if that doesn`t happen then the analog diverges .  Sometime one gets you only so far . 

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To this point , its central basin heat  / forcing/warm Dec and NEG in the SE  in early/mid JAN are similar . Never exactly alike .

Yes there was a SSW in late Jan that just helped with a great FEB .

 

I have never been on the strat warm guy , top down , bottom up , there are those better at identifying it than I .

Will wait on that , if that doesn`t happen then the analog diverges .  Sometime one gets you only so far . 

He has no clue whether we get a SSW end of Jan

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my biggest concern has been precip since Sept. Was told over and over thats the least of our issues. I think we need some juice to get this thing started. The cold will be here, cold enough for sure. Still like the 16th 17th, was never all ga ga for the 11th 12th dealio. Could still lay a layer down just meh

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What a turn of events in here.

I will wait to call a ratter until I see the whites of its lifeless eyes. However, I'm starting to entertain the idea now after getting excited for nice changes that now to be short lived and/or muted.

Things can turn on a dime though. We had the same panicked ones calling for a ratter last year only a week before the greatest winter stretch we will probably ever experience - so who knows.

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He has no clue whether we get a SSW end of Jan

 

oh ok GINX . Tommy and John have been good on these down by us . I have yielded to them . 

 

I am more PAC influenced when putting together my ideas . ( it all matters )  but we have overcome a bad Atlantic at times in NYC. But if the bad PAC is bad  , I just pull the shades down . 

 

I can`t believe we get out of the 10 -18  period without  at least one  lobe of energy  rolling under the vortex and popping up inside 5 days as the EC is so warm .

 

I just want to ignore these long Miller As the EPS see 12 days out , the good one sneak up on you IMO . 

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BTW..we likely go thru mid point of met winter with 1 inch at BDL/BOS.

Obviously a big coastal can happen..but a lower end snowfall year is becoming more and more likely.

Ryan's stats for Nino years and warm Dec back that up.

Maybe this year is different,..we can hope

BOS at 0.7"?

Pure stats argue for a below normal year - maybe even much below if we don't cash in on something in the next few weeks.

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BOS at 0.7"?

Pure stats argue for a below normal year - maybe even much below if we don't cash in on something in the next few weeks.

If that's the case we basically have to hope for an 83 type storm. That would be the only way to avoid a complete dud. I went under 25 BDL and BOS and under 35 here and think those look pretty good right now. But we'll see.
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Granted I haven't given it my top priority to analyze as rum punch flows through my veins, but it doesn't look that hideous. The 11-15 that is. You don't want a Death Star, but if I knew it would be active, I wouldn't be too worried. Of course, it's very difficult to say how active.

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