40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Good grief, the EPS monthly of absolutely wretched for sne snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is the pattern thread guys. Keep the general obs to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Good grief, the EPS monthly of absolutely wretched for sne snowfall. Dry and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Models head fake? Things looked promising. You gotta think statistically that at least one of these storms breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think I like the conditions after the first storm on the 11th-13th better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Good grief, the EPS monthly of absolutely wretched for sne snowfall. That's such a weenie product. Here's a 45 meteogram based on the eps parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That's such a weenie product. Here's a 45 meteogram based on the eps parallel. The 45 day is replacing the Euro weeklies, cant post it but its great, for my locale, temps near freezing for highs 20s for lows, 18 inches of snow (the weenie part) between now and Feb 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 45 day is replacing the Euro weeklies, cant post it but its great, for my locale, temps near freezing for highs 20s for lows, 18 inches of snow (the weenie part) between now and Feb 14th I dont know.. Maybe Im just spoiled. .But, 18" delivered over 6 wks in the height of winter doesnt sound all that great for our area. I mean, lets say thats true, and lets say we get another 18" between then and start of calendar spring.. that gives us a winter total thats somewhere around a foot below normal. I mean, sure, its better than what weve had, but anything below normal is, well, below normal. Its not horrible for a super el nino winter, but to me, 'great', its not ... Hoping, of course, for more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 45 day is replacing the Euro weeklies, cant post it but its great, for my locale, temps near freezing for highs 20s for lows, 18 inches of snow (the weenie part) between now and Feb 14th I know I looked at it for St. John's. I just can't imagine it being very skillful. It has 35" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think I like the conditions after the first storm on the 11th-13th better. I would tend to agree with this statement as is can help build some confluent flow to our N preventing a storm from cutting West, Only caveat being that you would not want too much spacing between storrm as heights will be going up as the 2nd storm begins to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I would tend to agree with this statement as is can help build some confluent flow to our N preventing a storm from cutting West, Only caveat being that you would not want too much spacing between storrm as heights will be going up as the 2nd storm begins to amplify. right. I was thinking the first storm could turn into some semblance of a 50/50...although that far out is way beyond my pay grade lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Weenie front page of the Metro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I dont know.. Maybe Im just spoiled. .But, 18" delivered over 6 wks in the height of winter doesnt sound all that great for our area. I mean, lets say thats true, and lets say we get another 18" between then and start of calendar spring.. that gives us a winter total thats somewhere around a foot below normal. I mean, sure, its better than what weve had, but anything below normal is, well, below normal. Its not horrible for a super el nino winter, but to me, 'great', its not ... Hoping, of course, for more.. Thats a mean and really means nothing at all, the precip is near 4/5 inches and the temps are cold, do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Thats a mean and really means nothing at all, the precip is near 4/5 inches and the temps are cold, do the math Deli sandwiches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That's gonna be quite the whack in the face tomorrow morning... NAM's FRH grid drills BOS to -14 C at T1 (12Z); that should translate to a surface 2-m temperature of 8 or 10 F ! ...winds of 10 to 15 kts, too That's a first for this year... Conditionally cooled ponds are gonna flash ice over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Thats a mean and really means nothing at all, the precip is near 4/5 inches and the temps are cold, do the math Got it.. Thanks. That sounds a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Got it.. Thanks. That sounds a lot better. Guess this belongs here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Longer range not as dramatic. Not awful though and in fact could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Gefs completely collapse the pattern. Probably not right, but Lord have Mercy if they are. #Febdisaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Gefs completely collapse the pattern. Probably not right, but Lord have Mercy if they are. #Febdisaster They maintain nao/ao per my read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 They maintain nao/ao per my read.Zonal flow and +EPO. It's an ugly look , but likely wrong. Would put cold snowy Feb forecasts in peril to start the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Zonal flow and +EPO. It's an ugly look , but likely wrong. Would put cold snowy Feb forecasts in peril to start the month so day 15 plus 4 equal Jan 19th and you think that is Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 so day 15 plus 4 equal Jan 19th and you think that is Feb?Try and follow along.. You've had trouble following this winter.. If that change happens like they show, it would be pattern change back to AN leading into early Feb..Not as warm as Dec, but not what the snowy cold Feb folks thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Try and follow along.. You've had trouble following this winter.. If that change happens like they show, it would be pattern change back to AN leading into early Feb..Not as warm as Dec, but not what the snowy cold Feb folks thought. so an ENS can change for the last 2 days of its run but can't change back before the next 10, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Try and follow along.. You've had trouble following this winter.. If that change happens like they show, it would be pattern change back to AN leading into early Feb..Not as warm as Dec, but not what the snowy cold Feb folks thought. That would still be too early to call for anything in Feb...Feb is another 12 days after the end of the GEFS run...that is an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Gibbs says we go to Jan 98 look final 1/3 of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That would still be too early to call for anything in Feb...Feb is another 12 days after the end of the GEFS run...that is an eternity. and "I" don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Gibbs says we go to Jan 98 look final 1/3 of month. Tell us what he says when the EPS come out, Canadian looks nothing like GEFS, looks like EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Always have to argue cold. Can't admit things are potentially not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Try and follow along.. You've had trouble following this winter.. If that change happens like they show, it would be pattern change back to AN leading into early Feb..Not as warm as Dec, but not what the snowy cold Feb folks thought. -AO/-NAO pattern but that's a torch. The Death Star returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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