CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That;s kind of why it reminds me of 92. Obviously not the same overall..but similar marginal cold. Maybe this is the elevation storm we've been waiting for , for many years..or maybe it's rain for all of SNE/CNE..time will tell. lol there are a million storms with marginal cold. 92 had a giant high to the north - this has absolutely no similarity to 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 lol there are a million storms with marginal cold. 92 had a giant high to the north - this has absolutely no similarity to 92. the 2 days prior to 92 ,my daily ave was 20, this run GFS 37. Like Jerry told him this morning antecedent differences are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah - even the GEFS/EPS don't have a nice looking high or confluence to the north. Seems like it would be a blue bomb kind of deal with borderine temps. Probably not great for the CP.right now has that Berks SVt Monads feel, ski area filler. First wave screws the pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 right now has that Berks SVt Monads feel, ski area filler. First wave screws the pooch. Would be great for them. I wouldn't hate that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could be good. Gotta worry that the storm cuts inland though. Move that trough axis over the plains a few hundred miles west (like the op) and we're in trouble. That is what I am worried about too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 How did the EPS look toward the end of the run? Does it show the -EPO breaking down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 How did the EPS look toward the end of the run? Does it show the -EPO breaking down? The pna ridge gets knocked down but still a ton of high latitude blocking....better then yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 People can analyze them all they want...just don't start a threat thread this far out, lol. I'd add that the current solutions don't mean a damned thing. I'll wait until we're within skillful range. I think the hardest part to wade through is the detailed posting about backyard forecasts that far out. Might as well have a threat thread then. But I do think even at the far ranges we have things we can discuss. I mean the Euro may have no skill day 9 over New England, but at day 3 it may have skill for the shortwave over Kamchatka. Of course it's hard to pull focus away from the snow headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's pretty amazing that this whole pattern change in the Arctic with the flip from +AO/-AO all stemmed from that weak little system that moved through New England on 12/27. The way that thing turned into a monster over Iceland and shook up the Arctic is pretty cool. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dtpres/dtpres_arctic_loop.html I blogged about it this evening if anyone is bored enough to give it a read... http://ryanhanrahan.com/2016/01/03/pattern-change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think the hardest part to wade through is the detailed posting about backyard forecasts that far out. Might as well have a threat thread then. But I do think even at the far ranges we have things we can discuss. I mean the Euro may have no skill day 9 over New England, but at day 3 it may have skill for the shortwave over Kamchatka. Of course it's hard to pull focus away from the snow headline. Last year, we created a model thread to have people analyze 200 hour threats and it worked pretty well to keep the pattern threads relatively clean. We may have to do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Last year, we created a model thread to have people analyze 200 hour threats and it worked pretty well to keep the pattern threads relatively clean. We may have to do that again. I think there are things we can discuss and analyze, but I don't think the placement of the coastal front or ratios are among them. I think far more interesting questions arise from the fact that the GFS is 30 dm too high over AK and how that affects downstream areas (disclaimer: the GFS may or may not be 30 dm too high over AK, it was just a hypothetical). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 There probably should be another model threat thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Parallel Euro epic disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Parallel Euro epic disaster Can't snow at 60F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Parallel Euro epic disasterFor the weekend threat?I'd wait a few more days to become more confident, but that looks like a rainer with LPs rotating around Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Last year, we created a model thread to have people analyze 200 hour threats and it worked pretty well to keep the pattern threads relatively clean. We may have to do that again. I agree, although we all wonder about our backyard. But I think we can say several things with confidence: the upcoming pattern is conducive of cold and snow we have a split flow with a lot of energy in the southern jet there has been a consistent signal for precip over the weekend in the NE there has been a consistent signal for arctic air next week there has been a consistent signal for a coastal storm early-mid next week pattern recognition and analogs (I think) suggest cold and snow is fairly likely over the next 2 weeks Up here in this pattern in January I am less worried about precip type; I can understand more worry in SNE and MidAtl. My takeaway is that it is going to turn stormier next weekend and the week after. We will likely get 2-3 snows from light to perhaps heavy between Jan 9 and Jan 18. I think that is a reasonable expectation and the details will get a bit clearer (at least for the weekend) on Tuesday I'd say. I expect to transition from snow boots to snow shoes on my hikes starting early next week. At this point I believe I will no longer see the tops of uncut grass in hay fields, perhaps until March. We usually get a snow pack in excess of one foot for some part of the winter up here and that will probably happen next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yep. Hey look, I love cold and snow like anyone, but I think some have been trigger happy on the strat. So far so good for my thoughts. The Pacific definitely changed earlier than I thought thanks to MJO. However, I'm a little nervous it doesn't last. Still holding hope for Feb. The VP200mb forecasts look better than they had previously. Keeps more forcing near the Dateline. As long as this occurs, I don't think the pattern completely collapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 8-14 day CPC analog dates aren't spitting out any blockbuster events from what I can tell. Looks like 2 moderate snowstorms in '66 and '83 but otherwise a pretty ho hum list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's pretty amazing that this whole pattern change in the Arctic with the flip from +AO/-AO all stemmed from that weak little system that moved through New England on 12/27. The way that thing turned into a monster over Iceland and shook up the Arctic is pretty cool. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dtpres/dtpres_arctic_loop.html I blogged about it this evening if anyone is bored enough to give it a read... http://ryanhanrahan.com/2016/01/03/pattern-change/ Nice article. This loop shows it nicely at 500mb too.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The VP200mb forecasts look better than they had previously. Keeps more forcing near the Dateline. As long as this occurs, I don't think the pattern completely collapses. starting to remind me of last year where the LR was initially forecast to collapse. Its really tough to break winter PNA once it gets its spurs dug in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Not to mention when it constructively interferes with one of the strongest el nino events ever recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 starting to remind me of last year where the LR was initially forecast to collapse. Its really tough to break winter PNA once it gets its spurs dug in. Especially in deep winter. Once the deck chairs are shuffled they do not typically move again for awhile but in order to dig in y have to have a pattern go 2 weeks or more. At least that's my cockamamie theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 8-14 day CPC analog dates aren't spitting out any blockbuster events from what I can tell. Looks like 2 moderate snowstorms in '66 and '83 but otherwise a pretty ho hum list.83 rocked, 16 here,18 Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 8-14 day CPC analog dates aren't spitting out any blockbuster events from what I can tell. Looks like 2 moderate snowstorms in '66 and '83 but otherwise a pretty ho hum list.day 11 superens, yum 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I had about 20" in the megalopolis storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Especially in deep winter. Once the deck chairs are shuffled they do not typically move again for awhile but in order to dig in y have to have a pattern go 2 weeks or more. At least that's my cockamamie theory. Generally speaking models are too quick to build blocking and too quick to break it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I had about 20" in the megalopolis storm.check your Jan storm, that one is often forgotten, hellacious naked twister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I decided to go ahead and make a model thread...use it for posting OP runs. Discussing ensemble analogs and stuff is fine for this thread like the stuff ginx posted above...but for discussing where the 850 0C line is on the 174 hour GFS, we'll use the model thread since it is totally meaningless to the pattern thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47534-model-mezzanine/ Anyway, back to pattern discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Seems what Nino helped do is make the whole country BN rather than just us,along with some JUJU juice. Let's do this mid month on, earlier for NNE it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 check your Jan storm, that one is often forgotten, hellacious naked twister Strong el niños do not have many CJ events...love that. Man snow...with local maximas where they belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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