CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I was wondering about this today. How hard is it to get sustained high latitude blocking without help from the stratosphere? We've got a vortex just ripping up there in the strat with no signs of slowing. Any blocking is coming from more transient tropospheric influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I was wondering about this today. How hard is it to get sustained high latitude blocking without help from the stratosphere? We've got a vortex just ripping up there in the strat with no signs of slowing. Any blocking is coming from more transient tropospheric influences.2015 did ok, transient is fine. Sustained blocking is somewhat overated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Gfs back under SNE at 150 Yup--it's kinda purty. 32.6/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Don't know if its PC to say at day 6 but congrats Dendrite, MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's all fun for most. Dawned on me overnight that 20 ECMWF and 40 GFS to go. I predict the event will go poof and then re-appear inside D5. Watching OES, WV imagery is not the same. Discussion of squalls windex style, lapse-rates,temperature freefall, moisture transport and wind trajectory to keep the entertainment and dialog going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Congrats NNE on the first system..... Pretty warm for most of SNE outside of far Western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Don't know if its PC to say at day 6 but congrats Dendrite, MPM I'm toasting myself with a diet Coke. Looks like #2 has promise on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lol, Dom. WV is interesting, but trough axis is way too Far East for any storms, until the reload happens this week then the fun starts on the 9th with rain to start then over to heavy snow and then maybe a blizzard Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I was wondering about this today. How hard is it to get sustained high latitude blocking without help from the stratosphere? We've got a vortex just ripping up there in the strat with no signs of slowing. Any blocking is coming from more transient tropospheric influences.So currently the PV split is lower than the strat so the vortex persists at the pole in the strat? Dont we get blocking without an SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lol, Dom. WV is interesting, but trough axis is way too Far East for any storms, until the reload happens this week then the fun starts on the 9th with rain to start then over to heavy snow and then maybe a blizzard Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk WOTY-contender post right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 need a little more analytic/critical thinking folks - ... seeing a lot of missed information. For one, the 0z and 06 z bombs are not even the same system. Completely keyed in on different packets of atmospheric dynamics for each. Just look at the time stamps. The 0z, 216 hour mid level quasi-cut-off/surface bombogenesis is D9/9.5, where as the 06z is not only well after D10, it's a different deep later evolution altogether. If that were not enough, the Euro's version of a more moderate size/amplitude coastal is also neither of the GFS dynamics, keying in on something else altogether (very quick hitting 192 to 204 hour, single stream open wave). What I have seen over the last 24 hours is what Scott and I were discussing three days ago ... and still plagues. Wave interference! there is a lot of potential here, but there are too many objects in the atmosphere for even the mighty Euro and GFS operational models to figure out which is truth and fiction ...particularly at that time range. Every run, new one. There really hasn't been "system 1" then "system 2" ... you've been looking at different entities altogether - ...although there is some better continuity emerging (finally) with the 144 hour deal, granted. That's not to say nothing will take place in the next middle to extended range; just that it will likely be something not "hone-able" until comparative shorter time leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Damn John, thanks for pointing that out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I've been focusing on the January 3-4th threat so much Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 For me it seems we have 3 opportunities in a 9 day period starting January 9. One might be big. Some of us have a shot at all frozen and all of us have a shot at 2 frozen. That is where I think it stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 So currently the PV split is lower than the strat so the vortex persists at the pole in the strat? Dont we get blocking without an SSW? Correct. Vortex powerful in stratosphere but there has been a split lower in the atmosphere. And yes you can get blocking in the troposphere without a SSW. It's actually going to occur over next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Correct. Vortex powerful in stratosphere but there has been a split lower in the atmosphere. And yes you can get blocking in the troposphere without a SSW. It's actually going to occur over next couple weeks. But your point is sustained blocking right? I would think it would be easier to get a south Greenland block than an overall -ao without an SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Why no one else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 WOTY-contender post right there. Line, sinker, bait, hook. It's hard to express sarcasm....Brick holds a strangle-hold on that infamous award. Damage tries with one-line zingers, but I give the Rev credit he knows and expresses a center of attention look at me overture. Passive aggressive posting is an art. I'm bitter and jealous that I no longer has a bias involvement. Won't be the first time I've had a post deleted so with that said..... NCEP is extremely slow is response. What no obs thread for the arctic attack? Hours upon hours of <32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like a close pass for possible storm 2 on the GFS. See what the rest of the models conjure up in a bit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Line, sinker, bait, hook. It's hard to express sarcasm....Brick holds a strangle-hold on that infamous award. Damage tries with one-line zingers, but I give the Rev credit he knows and expresses a center of attention look at me overture. Passive aggressive posting is an art. I'm bitter and jealous that I no longer has a bias involvement. Won't be the first time I've had a post deleted so with that said..... NCEP is extremely slow is response. What no obs thread for the arctic attack? Hours upon hours of <32F. I think the ncep site crashed. Per Tropical Tidbits, it looks like the GFS has the second system go wide right toward the early low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Another system in hrs 360-384 fantasy range on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think the ncep site crashed. Per Tropical Tidbits, it looks like the GFS has the second system go wide right toward the early low. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well I post when i see the possibilities Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like the pattern we had in 2013-2014 suppression for the winter storms Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The gfs is just where we want it at this range. And I'll save you all the trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like the pattern we had in 2013-2014 suppression for the winter storms Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We'll pretend last week never happened nor the system that's progged for Saturday. The gfs is just where we want it at this range. And I'll save you all the trouble... LOL I had hoped I'd stay below freezing today. Oh, well. 33.9/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The gfs is just where we want it at this range. And I'll save you all the trouble... I want it jackpotting you at Day 5, Dendrite at Day 3, and me at Day 1. That's how the NW trend should work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I want it jackpotting you at Day 5, Dendrite at Day 3, and me at Day 1. That's how the NW trend should work :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GFS gives Woburn ( which is 10 miles N of Boston ) 1.43" of QPF for next weekend. That's based on the MeteoStar site that Steve recommended. Not bad for N of the Pike since much of it looks frozen. Seems similar at least around here to the 12/29 storm last week but maybe more frozen. Still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The gfs is just where we want it at this range. And I'll save you all the trouble... Lots of painful lessons behind this statement lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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