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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Scottsaidthemodels would be a mess this week due to so much southern stream. I would bet on a Fri and Saturday storm and a Monday Tuesday storm at this point, because precipitation has been signalled for nextweekend for a while.

Btw gyxw discussion weird today as intro paragraph long range write up and zones are out of sync quite a bit

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You would almost think there was a threat modeled inside of d6.

No kidding. I started skimming the thread this morning and thought there'd been some sort of dramatic change in the short/medium-range based on the way some were debating QPF, ratios and elevation.

 

Definitely a ho-hum AFD from GYX, FWIW. Not sold on a full-fledge pattern change, and meh about any weekend threat at this point. I'll enjoy the couple days of deep winter temps and will check back later. 

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The only models anyone should be watching are the ensembles over the next 2-3 days, Your not going to get any consensus from op runs, Discussing track, Jackpots and start times this far out is pure weenie

I see no harm, does it really bother people, I mean cmon its not like there is anything going on, enjoy the dry fropo I guess
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you would almost think this is a wxforum where we discuss model outputs and have fun doing it, lighten up Francis

 

LOL

 

You don't find someone asking for a start time on a day 7 event that may or may not even happen a bit over the top?

 

I actually think someone did a couple pages back.....:)

 

28.5/22

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The idea we expressed yesterday of 1 storm instead of 2 typically happening looks to be correct. Because of that it may end up like a Dec 1992 deal. It's not often you see 2 storms , 2 days apart.

 

Why do you keep bringing up Dec 1992? These storms modeled (even in clown range) look nothing like Dec 1992...these are much faster moving and not monstrous cutoffs that rot for 36 hours south of us. The large scale pattern is totally different too.

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Sorry..either sv or wxbell is lying if you're getting anywhere in New England with 3+ qpf on the op euro. In fact, everyone is well under 2 for the storm in question. Of course because I chose to go to bed at 1:40am you all assume I'm not responding for a reason. I love you but you've morphed into King Fridge Weenie the past few years.

relevance? Lol.I was getting rain on that run and it was the GFS, nice strawman, and the 3 inch totals was for both storms and confirmed by Accuwx pro. I have no idea why SV doesn't show that, and the areas in question did not sniff taint.
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relevance? Lol.I was getting rain on that run, nice strawman, and the 3 inch totals was for both storms and confirmed by Accuwx pro. I have no idea why SV doesn't show that, and the areas in question did not sniff taint.

Ok I deleted that post because we were talking apples to oranges and I was talking euro and you gfs and gfs qpf matches. Just not the snow part per the model algorithm which is total weenie on wxbell. Doesn't matter at this point and we've had a nice signal for 1/11 ish for days.

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Why do you keep bringing up Dec 1992? These storms modeled (even in clown range) look nothing like Dec 1992...these are much faster moving and not monstrous cutoffs that rot for 36 hours south of us. The large scale pattern is totally different too.

Because of the atmospheric conditions. Not saying it's a replica..but it's the same kind of setup where you may rain to wet snow inland and rain coat with a big wound up coastal with wind.. There's just not much cold air

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Ok I deleted that post because we were talking apples to oranges and I was talking euro and you gfs and gfs qpf matches. Just not the snow part per the model algorithm which is total weenie on wxbell. Doesn't matter at this point and we've had a nice signal for 1/11 ish for days.

lol
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Because of the atmospheric conditions. Not saying it's a replica..but it's the same kind of setup where you may rain to wet snow inland and rain coast. There's just not much cold air

It's totally different. Antecedent cold was good in 92, bad here. Btw it snowed heavily to the coast in 92 after a good deal of rain, Winds gusts over 50 for a long time in 92.

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you would almost think this is a wxforum where we discuss model outputs and have fun doing it, lighten up Francis

I was easier on you than some of the others. ;)

It seems every year we add an extra day to when we start following the op runs for specific threats. Apparently we're up to d7 or d8 now. I'm not telling you guys to stop...just pointing it out and agreeing with others that you're all uber weenies for discussing d7 op runs at 2am. :)

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I was easier on you than some of the others. ;)

It seems every year we add an extra day to when we start following the op runs for specific threats. Apparently we're up to d7 or d8 now. I'm not telling you guys to stop...just pointing it out and agreeing with others that you're all uber weenies for discussing d7 op runs at 2am. :)

yes we are, nothing better than 2 am porn. You should try it
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